I’m curious to see what people are predicting at this point.
“Both sides agree to something vague or ambiguous” + “we’re back to the exact same arguments 6-12 months from now the next time they want to raise the debt ceiling.” Because they will want to increase it again. It’s been raised almost yearly since its inception, and this is already time #4 under Obama.
I forgot to clarify: “They” could be either side, since it was also raised by Republicans 7 times in in the past decade or so.
There will be no agreement and by this time next year, the US will be reduced to Third World status, with rioting in the streets and bodies hanging from lamp posts.
Don’t forget the heads on sticks. It’s not really the apocalypse until we have heads on sticks!
In order of what I think will happen:
- Something vague and ambiguous.
- Democrats will agree to spending cuts and no revenue increases.
- US will default.
- There will be a compromise with both spending cuts and revenue increases.
- Republicans agree to revenue increases and no spending cuts.
And chanting!
I went with Democrats caving. There’s nothing on the table that raises revenue, and several different proposals for making inadequate cuts. It’s possible that they’ll hit the ceiling before they cave, and maybe they’ll get some meaningless concession from the Republicans – like a two-year increase in the debt ceiling instead of one – and certainly the cuts that get made are going to be flexible and reversible to allow the Republicans to back out when they start catching some heat, but I have no doubt that we’re going to emerge from this fracas with inadequate revenues, an inadequate budget plan, and another huge budget battle in six months.
I think we will see a combination of just enough cuts, new taxes, and the limit raised to get through the 2012 election. Both sides will go home claiming victory and explaining why they need control of the senate, house, and the white house.
There will be no limit to election spending, lying, cheating, fearmongering. etc. I am looking forward to the election being over.
Me too. They’ll cave like they always cave. As always, they’ll give the Republicans concessions and get nothing in return.
That’s really where the big sticking point is right now. The President wants the limit raised to get through the 2012 election, and the Republicans will only agree to a debt limit that will expire before the 2012 election, I think so they can make austerity and spending cuts a campaign issue.
Republican leadership, under pressure from corporate donors, agrees to debt ceiling increase with token, or no, spending cuts in order to avoid tax increases. Tea Party revolts, bolts the party and runs their own slate of candidates in 2012.
A few trifles get cut here and there and debt ceiling become a non-issue once more though I hope the deficit reduction talks do continue.
I couldn’t find my option, which was that they would be able to come to no decision, there would be much public bickering, the president would make Boehner sob in public, and then on August 1 a Kardashian will die in a mysterious fashion and CNN/MSNBC/Fox, etc., will cover absolutely nothing else until the end of time, and yada yada yada, out come the pitchforks.
I think the Democrats will cave although I would prefer they push the Republicans to the very limit. In fact, I’d like to know what will happen if neither side yields; it would be interesting to see which side would want to re-open negotiations.
I think think will come right down to the wire with no agreement, before President Obama just has the debt ceiling raised on his own. Then the issue will spend the next forever in the courts.
I voted #3, ambiguity. One thing to watch is foriegn markets. If Greece, Ireland or one of the other not so stable economies go down, it will affect everyone. If it happens before Aug 2 (just might with Greece), you can bet its gonna have an effect. Which way, well it depends how the coin lands, and if Greece (or whomever defaults) grabs it and runs away giggling…
#3. but I really think they’ll create emergency legislation that just raises the ceiling without dealing with anything else. That’s the one level at which the Republicans will cave. They promised the people who fund their campaigns that the ceiling would be raised. Even with beating Obama being their only goal, they can’t pull that off if they don’t have any money to campaign.
Short term raising of the limit, revisit the issue closer to election time and try to use it to leverage votes.
No agreement, Obama calls BS and raises it hisownself. Boehner protests, is found dead of a heroin overdose in a glory hole stall. A unified congress gets in lockstep with President Obama from 2012-2024.