What’s it gonna be? When does the sh** hit the fan? The downfall of civilization could be precipitated by meteors, nuclear war, fluoridation of water, etc. I always say, “After the food riots.”
I’m not sure of the context, but I’m convinced they’re in our future. It won’t be $30/gallon gas that tips the scale, it’ll be $30/pound potatoes. I can’t prove it, which is why this is IMHO, but it just stands to reason. Gas could go up to $100/gallon, and we could make accommodations, but we gotta eat. (Actually, the price of fuel would affect the price of food, but I’ve always had this vague notion that it’ll be a rotting fungus that attacks everything, and we get screwed because of a lack of biodiversity in our crops).
The question is, with various end-of-civilization scenarios racing each other, which one will arrive first? Will it be something dumb we do to ourselves or will it be the giant mutant bugs from Starship Troopers?
Well, firstly, the Oil will run out. Once that happens, transport costs will skyrocket as alternatives are sought, and with higher transport costs comes higher food costs, to the point where you practically have to take out a second mortgage to buy groceries.
Couple that with overpopulation in the third world, and dwindling natural resources, and eventually it won’t be long before we’re all very glad the Government has commissioned the good people at Vault-Tek to build a series of Vaults in which to avoid the coming Nuclear War, complete with functioning Water Chips and two G.E.C.K.s (one for rebuilding the world anew when you emerge from the Vault, and the other as a spare in case anyone loses theirs and needs another one), as well as ensuring plenty of Blue Jumpsuits and Pip-Boys for every Vault Inhabitant…
The Government and Vault-Tek ARE building those massive underground Vaults, right?
I think these days that the end of civilization as we know it will be brought about by either religious loonies (of any number of persuasions) intent on converting the world or Liberal Internationalism bringing about a World State, with its subsequent total collapse. Ask me tomorrow and I might be favoring Global Plague w/Ensuing Famine. Energy won’t be enough to trigger collapse. As posited, it will require food shortages as well.
Some statistically unlikely but highly feasible 500- or 1000-year synchronicity of natural disaster, political/religious chaos, governmental ignorance/unpreparedness, private sector greed/manipulation, and media/public apathy.
However, I don’t think civilization will fall all at once like some walled city of old. And it may not all pass from existence. Where is it written?
Europe is well into decline already. Not only from the population implosion but from the huge taxes - which incidentally mean that people can’t afford more children - supporting too many people on welfare.
Tens of thousands of years from now, advanced civilizations will read history books about the time that a nasty disease spread across the globe, leaving nothing behind but Twinkies, cockroaches, and “our founding rednecks.” You see, the constant exposure to the elements gives the rednecks a built up immunity to diseases, but everyone else will drop like flies. Other tribes and subcultures across the globe will also survive in little pockets, but it takes a few centuries before they will all discover each other.
That’s my expectation for the Fall of Civilization (though I recognize that it’s not a true “fall,” since there are a multitude of survivors), but I would prefer a zombie invasion. As I’m sure most of us would.
Am I the only one who believes that fuel alternatives won’t come along long before $30/gal/gas comes to fruition? What am I investing in all those alternative energy companies for? (For that matter, why am I getting a pretty good return (i.e. greater than S&P 500)?)
Anyway, I see two scenarios, one short, one long:
Short: a religious zealot/leader (pick any) who is also head of state (pick any) makes a nuclear strike against a country (but, this is key) who’s SOP and ability is immediate retaliation, and I mean immediate. The resulting volley should trigger MAD, taking the rest of the planet along with it. I’m also assuming that colonization and space travel technologies aren’t up to speed and we all die, whatever is left, in a semi-radioactive glass wasteland. But, I suppose this could also be precursor to some great genetic mutation, but I doubt it.
Long: we outlive this planet, either naturally, or we just pollute it too much and the Earth is over-populated. Obviously, this is not the current trend, but I envision everyone becoming pro-democratic/pro-capitalistic/super competitive. No one wants to lose competitve edge by cleaning up their mess. This would also mean that consumers don’t care about pollution and an adequate market never forms for clean-up.
In my scenario, the world ends due to a rapidly-escalating pie fight. The Earth’s crust destabilizes under the combined weight of hundreds of meters of lemon merengue and tumbles everything into the mantle. The smoke of gigatons worth of burning sugary confection smothers the few remaining sticky, bloated survivors. A thousand years later, aliens visit and marvel at Earth’s collection of very, very fat cockroaches and rats.
With the end of the Cold War, I don’t see MAD as a factor anymore. The nuclear arsenals of the states most likely to use them are too small to take out a larger country. So an exchange between India and Pakistan would kill millions in the area, but I don’t see it directly impacting Sweden, for example. A Iran/Israel nuke duel would be more impactful, because of its proximity to all of our oil.
It’s all going down. It’s just a question of when.
First, the religious whackos will get their mitts on some variety of nuclear cherry bomb. And, of course, they’ll do their best to make it go “POOF” right in the middle of the capital of the universe (New York City). When it does, I will survive in my Long Island home long enough for all the schmendricks around me to mutate into atomic zombies.
I will, of course, be holed up in the nearest Wal Mart and will have stockpiled all the guns, ammo, compound bows, propane tanks and big sticks at said big box store. The end of civilization will come about when I run out of ammo or when an atomic zombie sneaks up on me without being noticed.
Probably along the lines of Mad Max/Tank Girl. Societies crumbling over the fight for fuel/water. Obviously it wouldn’t be anytime soon, but maybe in the next 500 years or so.
500 years down the line? I was thinking more like the year 21xx. I actually wasn’t thinking about at the events that would start the end of civilization, but the subsequent events that would be proof that we’d jumped the shark. Food riots or gangs of roving mutants would certainly be good evidence.
Now that I’m at work, I think the beginning of the end will have something to do with TPS reports.
