Sam that’s kind of my thinking as well. The level of rhetoric is pretty strong. It’s not along the lines of “People of North Korea, prepare to defend your selves if…” but more like “People of North Korea, we’re going to kick some ass and take some names.” It’s not even subtle psychology, it’s like hammering anger into thier people’s heads.
This kind of thing is reminiscent of Hitler and Stalin in terms of rhetoric and threat. I think the North Korea is simply looking for an excuse to get rowdy. My best guess, and I hope I’m wrong, is that we’ll see some kind of aggression in less than 6 months, more likely 2-3.
A few years ago, I was walking home from work in Hong Kong, through the Wanchai district. On the narrow street I was walking down, a fruit seller was wheeling his cart beside me. At the same time, a truck rounded the corner into the other end of street, and drove towards us. Truck and cart came to a halt opposite each other. The fruit seller could easily have allowed the truck past by pulling his cart onto the sidewalk, or the truck driver could have simply driven onto the sidewalk to get past, but the truck driver instead honked his horn. The fruit seller’s face registered shock and anger, and he swore under his breath: “diw ley lo mo”. A simple negotiation had suddenly become a matter of face: each was in danger of being humiliated by the other. So the fruit seller stood his ground, and so did the truck. They stared and swore at each other, but neither moved. Meanwhile a line of cars was building up behind the truck, and the traffic was backing up into the district’s major arteries. I stood and watched for an hour as they remained like this, neither moving or giving an inch. In the end I left, before a resolution was achieved. I don’t know how the situation was resolved (probably through third-party intervention), but on the radio that evening it was reported that rush-hour traffic in Wanchai in total chaos due to the blockage.
The point of this anecdote is to illustrate that, while face does exist in the West, it is a much stronger and more overriding cultural phenomenon in East Asia, that often produces behaviour is contrary to our perceptions of what is logical and sensible. Diplomacy in East Asian countries is seen as an art-form, learned and earned through many years of exposure and deep levels of understanding.
The bellicose and insulting rhetoric that the Bush administration is currently uttering WRT North Korea - however accurate - is likely to make Kim Jong Il feel humiliated and in danger of losing face; this is a dangerous situation. Unless, of course, the hawks have a game-plan way cleverer than I give them credit for.