When do the supers make their move?

Great Debates
1

For the sake of this thread it is considered a fait accompli that Hillary is done. The question is when the superdelegates begin to acknowlwdge that by endorsing Obama en masse.

Will they wait until she fails to perform well in TX and OH? (Defined by either by losing one or the other or both to some, or by winning only narrowly by others)

Or will they start to move now that he blasted her in WI?

I’m betting before March 4 because they should want to minimize the extreme long shot but non-zero chance of HRC doing just well enough there to make this bleed all Summer and their endorsements before then will send the message to HRC that she cannot rely on them to save her from a loss in pledged delegates or to support her in seating MI and/or FL (and of course cement that in voters minds too.)

Other bets?

2

Spit too far to get a majority and go to the convention without result. Then a brokered convention puts up Gore.

3

That’s what my mother keeps predicting. She’s actually looking forward to it, because she hates everybody else who is running.

4

I bet they wait. There are some Clinton superdelegates that are kicking themselves right now who wished they had waited until Clinton had actually won some primaries before they endorsed the “inevitable candidate”

Hopefully Obama can win either Ohio or Texas on March 4th and give everyone an excuse to support Obama.

5

I would expect them to move en mass once a candidate (Obama in the OP) attains the necessary delegates to secure the nomination. 2025 without Michigan and Flordia. At that point the candidates without 2025 delegates will likely withdraw from the primary race.

6

Not happening in a million years. People have turned out in record numbers to vote for the two people who are running. Picking someone else would be suicidal.

First, a question: do the superdelegates - or in Clintonspeak, “automatic delegates” now - actually have to make a move if she withdraws? I’m not clear on that possibility.

Anyway, I disagree with DSeid. I think they’ll wait until after March 4th, because these are people with their finger in the wind and they will want to be absolutely positive they know which way it’s blowing. They don’t have to commit to anybody for months, after all, so why would they rush their decision if it costs them? It sounds like there are about 400 uncommitted delegates, and of course any of them can change their minds at any time, so maybe they start making noises to her or making their endorsements after March 4. Unless there are some surprising results in those primaries, after that, there will be almost no way she can win.

7

It’ll happen once the Congressional races start to get in gear this summer, assuming they are still relevant by then. No Democrat in a tight House or Senate race is going to want Hillary at the top of the ticket bringing in Republicans who just want to vote against her. They’d much rather those guys stay home. Much better to have a bunch of energized young people voting for a Dem at the top of the ticket than a bunch of angry white men voting for the Republican.