Now that the midterms are over (except for possible runoffs), it’s time to focus on the next hot button topic:
When (and, to a lesser extent, where) will Hillary Clinton announce that she is running for President?
Assuming she does run, I have a hard time seeing any Republican with the credentials to beat her, unless one of two things happens:
either (a) there’s still just enough “it’s called first lady for a reason - wimmin shouldnta oughta think they can be Prez’dint, dagnammit” mentality to keep her out of office (but I think that thinking has died out along with the “marriage is one man and one woman, period” and “marijuana is bad, m’kay?” mentalities).
or (b) too many people think that it’s really an attempt to run around the Constitution to get Bill elected a third time, and he’ll really be calling the shots (but I also remember Hillary throwing a major fit when she was asked a question about how Bill felt about something - it turned out that it was a mistranslation of a question concerning how President Obama felt).
I suspect, when all is said and done, she doesn’t run again. She went through the grinder in 2008 and, according to the excellent behind-the-scenes book Game Change, was deeply unhappy by the end of the campaign - and not just because she lost. She’s ambitious, yes, but she’s also going to be eight years older and now has a grandchild to spoil.
I was about to go into pedantic mode and say “it’s ‘intents and purposes’” - then I noticed you said “porpoises” instead of “purposes”.
And that’s sort of my point for asking this question - she played a similar cat-and-mouse game before finally “officially” announcing her initial Senate run.
Where’s the poll option for “When there’s a lull in the news cycle that will get her the best mix of timing and amount of coverage”?
I guess I’ll vote for April or later. I think the long Republican trial by fire for 2012 will be an object lesson to politicians for some time to come. Every month, it was someone new who swept in and was a sure bet to beat Obama. By the next month, they were down in the single digits again. Getting in too early just gives everyone (including your own party) too much time to tarnish you.
The bright side for Clinton is that there isn’t much left to throw at her. She does appear to be leaning towards running. I think she tries to preempt any serious Democratic challengers by announcing as soon as seems reasonable to her.
I’m a little surprised that it’s considered such a fait accompli that she’ll get the nomination if she runs. I mean, sure, any other candidate would be a long shot, but we still have to have a primary, right?. Is the party machine so entrenched that no one else will even declare? And it’s not like Clinton doesn’t have her detractors within the party. Is it that certain she’d be the most electable person for the Dems?
I like Clinton and thought about voting for her against Obama in the 2008 primary, but I was glad to have Obama as an option because (among other reasons) I hate the idea of political dynasties. If we end up with another Clinton v. Bush election, it’s going to be hard to find any enthusiasm for politics!
I assume she prefers this mode of operating. She’s the risk averse type, so she wants to make sure her annoucement is no surprise, and a done deal with the public already.
Biden says he’s going to run anyway. I guess he figures she might slip and fall politically, or maybe he wants to be the first 3 term VP, with a shot at a 4th, and he can still run for President when he’s 85
I also don’t think she’ll run, and even if she does, she probably won’t actually win the nomination. The attitude I’ve seen among Democrats is along the lines of “Well, I’m not enthusiastic about Hillary, but when she inevitably wins the nomination, I’ll support her”. Once the primaries actually get rolling, and it becomes clear just how many people feel that way, the inevitability will evaporate, same as it did in 2008.
I’d rather not see Biden run, either, because I think he would crowd out more electable candidates, but I’d much prefer to see him over Hillary.
I do hear that attitude from some people, but she seems to have overwhelming support from women, and barring another female candidate I have a hard time seeing her staying out of the race.
I kind of like the guy, I think he’d do OK as president. I wouldn’t place a bet on him winning the nomination though.
That helps her out if it motivates Democrats to turn out for the general in 2016. The known GOP contenders now are:
Christie - Fat chance
Paul - Populist Libertarian nut, actually a potential threat to her
Romney - Known loser
Bush - Strong candidate but he can’t play the dynasty card
Up against any of those she has a good chance of winning. But there are no locks in elections, anything could happen, including better opposition.
I think she will run - probably announcing in about six months. But I hope she doesn’t. And if she does, I hope she doesn’t get the nomination. The Democrats need someone engaging and energetic and charismatic, who will win over moderates. My personal gripes with Clinton are that she’s too disliked, too old, and too Clinton (I don’t want a dynasty either). I’d rather see a qualified candidate rise from semi-obscurity like her husband did, and win a competitive primary season. Not someone crowned before she announces just because she’s been around a long time and people like her husband.
I’m middle of the road, but I think this mid-term election would make her pause.
Two of your reasons in the above list apply to Hillary. Both the “know loser” and “can’t play the dynasty card” apply to her too. You do understand that right?
I’d lean to her not running. If elected, she’d be 69 when she takes office. Spending years 69-77 (with years 72 and 73 in yet another campaign) can’t seem attractive to her. With Bill being one year older. And if she does lose - and I’m less confident than you are of her chances of winning - then she wouldn’t be known as the smart first lady, or the smart lawyer, or the Senator or Secretary of State. The first sentence of her biography will forever be “twice unsuccessfully campaigned for President.”
She’s rich (well, not truly well off) political royalty and a mother and grandmother. I can see her saying the hell with it.
I’m not crazy about Hillary, but I’d far prefer her to Biden. He’s erratic and a little goofy and will only get more so as he gets older. You only see him in the news when he’s stuck his foot in his mouth. Again.
I LOATHE Hillary, I hope she doesn’t run, if she does, she will never get my vote
For the record, I’m an Independent leaning towards traditional old-school Republicans (hey, put down that rotten fruit, ok?) dubya was NOT a traditional pubbie, not even close, and I found the Clinton administration amusingly inoffensive, Bill may have had a lecherous, wandering eye, and was great joke fodder for comedians (dubya was the gf standard though) but his administration was okay
Hillary’s nannying tendencies even then were infuriating though