So by this time next week, its very likely gay marriage will have been decided for the whole US? I can’t wait, nervous, but historic.
Is there any way the Justices can split the opinion so that its very narrow and the issue won’t be settled at all? Everything I’ve read on it seems to point to the justices going to decide it all or nothing for the entire country. Nobody’s talking about how with Prop 8, they ruled it narrowly so that it only affected those of us in CA, or in something like Lawrence where one act was in question. This is it right? They’re not going to push it back even more are they?
When they took up the case, they limited it to two questions:
[ol]
[li]Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to license a marriage between two people of the same sex?[/li][li]Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-state?[/li][/ol]
So it seems to me it would be difficult for the court to wriggle out on some kind of jurisdiction or standing argument.
Of course, if they answer those questions with a “No”, then the issue will remain unsettled, and be fought on a state-by-state basis.
same with the Supreme Court of Canada.
Each judge has equal authority.
Same. As mentioned, it occasionally happens that the SCC announces that it will give judgment in a case in three days time, and then announces that judgment will not be given that day after all.
Just a minior nitpick: I think it’s not quite that narrow, in the sense that they’re limiting the constitutional provisions examined to the 14th Amendment. I’ve skimmed through the transcripts of the oral arguments, and it seems as if some judges think that for the second question, the Full Faith and Credit Clause is actually the relevant constitutional provision.
As someone whose wife, kids and self rely on Obamacare subsidies for their health coverage, and lives in a state that uses the federal website, let’s just say I have a slight case of the bubbleguts this week.
Very likely we will have a decision no later than next Monday. But maybe the Court will add yet another decision day next week that would delay it a few days. There are a few possibilities that would theoretically not provide finality to the issue.
The Court could Dismiss as Improvidently Granted, meaning they now think they never should have taken up the case. Highly unlikely in my (I Am Not a Lawyer) opinion.
The Court could remand the case to a lower court to consider some particular aspect that SCOTUS thinks was not properly considered.
The Court could order that the case be re-argued in the next term in order to address some particular point not previously argued.
The Court could rule against SSM on both questions - stating States do not have to provide for SSM under the federal constitution AND that States do not have to recognize a SSM performed elsewhere. Fights would continue in the State courts under various State constitutions.
The Court could rule against SSM on only the first question - stating States do not have to provide for SSM under the federal constitution BUT that States do have to recognize a SSM performed elsewhere. Fights would continue in the State courts under various State constitutions.
There may be other possibilities I haven’t thought of that would be bad news for the pro-SSM side.
And, of course, the Court could rule in favor of SSM on both questions - stating States do have to provide for SSM under the federal constitution AND (somewhat redundant at this point) that States do have to recognize SSM performed elsewhere.
Yes, the ruling in King v Burwell is among those decisions still to come. If both SSM and subsidies are decided on the last day then the scene outside the Court will be absolutely raucous.
Of note to the SSM issue, this weekend is the traditional time for many Gay Pride festivals and parades. Should a pro-SSM ruling come down this Thursday those events could be truly historic. Mass wedding, anyone?
Are many of these parades and festivals scheduled for this coming weekend (June 27-28)? I thought they most often happen on the weekend closest to the summer solstice (pagans that those gays are ), which was June 20-21.
it was little noticed, but on Monday the court told Alabama that it has to allow gay marriage because they did not stay a federal judges order in Alabama. The vote to deny the stay was 7-2 with only Alito and Scalia voting no.
So it would be very strange for that to happen this very week if they planned on voting against gay marriage.
It was actually Thomas and Scalia who dissented. It’s crazy enough that Alito wasn’t on the dissenting side, but not quite the sign of the apocalypse it would have been if it had been Thomas.
No matter who it was, you’re right that it’s a positive sign.
So at what point will we know if the Court is issuing a decision on this today or not? I thought it would be around 9 Eastern, but so far nothing up on SCOTUS blog. Will they end up putting this off until Friday or Monday?
It’s not really crazy that Alito was in the majority. The Alabama judiciary (or at least the Supreme Court of Alabama) was basically thumbing its nose at the federal courts and the Supremacy Clause.
They will announce decisions today, tomorrow and Monday. We won’t know which ones on which days until it happens. In addition, they could add an extra day at any time.
The two biggies are the gay marriage decision and the Obamacare one. The biggies are generally the last ones so probably not today. But it could be.
SCOTUS Blog says
[QUOTE=SCOTUS Blog]
We expect the Court to issue one or more opinions in argued cases at 10 a.m. on Thursday. We will be live-blogging beginning at 9:00 a.m.
We also expect one or more opinions on Friday at 10:00 a.m. We will begin live-blogging at 9:00 a.m.
[/QUOTE] link
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Oral arguments in the SSM case, Obergfell v Hodges, were heard late in the April sitting. There were only 7 cases heard in that sitting. Four opinions have already been released.
Typically the workload is spread among the Justices, so expect no more than one decision per Justice.
That leaves (in order of seniority) Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, Alito, and Sotomayor who have not yet authored a majority opinion from the April sitting. We should expect one of these Justices to have the majority opinion in the SSM case.
By any reasonable standard, this is HUGE case. The normal process is that the most senior Justice in the majority assigns which Justice will write the majority opinion. And there is a tendency for the most senior Justice tend to reserve the HUGE cases for themselves.
If the decision goes against SSM then I would bet it is authored by Scalia. If it goes in favor of SSM then I bet Kennedy authors it. Kennedy has a history of writing some pro-gay rights cases.
Further, Kennedy has only authored 5 opinions so far for the entire term. My best guess is Kennedy writes a fairly sweeping majority opinion in favor of SSM.
), which was June 20-21.