When people just don't get it

[enigmatic]

The Martingale system

I have had a load of arguments about this with some apparently very smart people all of whom seem to think that this is an awesome idea. Half the time it ends up with all available innocent bystanders converted to firm believers in its wisdom too :smack:

Me - “All you are doing is risking a large stake against a much smaller potential gain with a negative expected value”
Everyone else - “But it’s very unlikely that I’ll lose”

Either the human brain has some serious fundamental deficiencies in understanding basic probability, or I just suck at explaining maths.

[Shot_From_Guns]

@enigmatic

Either the human brain has some serious fundamental deficiencies in understanding basic probability

This first part. Our brains are big pattern-matching-and-finding machines, which means we like to see patterns that aren’t there. “I’ve just lost five bets in a row–that means this time, I’m *due *to win!”

[melodyharmonius]

I used to work for a call center for an office supply chain. A customer had ordered some paperclips. In the catalog, it advertises a package of 12 small boxes for $0.99.

However, she got confused and ordered 12 - and ended up with 12 packages of 12 small boxes, or 144 boxes. This happens, we understand.

she: I only meant to order one package, I accidentally ordered 12. Can you help me?

me: Absolutely. I’ll be happy to refund you for the extra 11 packages. We’ll credit your account for the difference.

she: So how do I return these to you?

me: Well, actually, we don’t usually request a return for anything less than $15. So please feel free to keep the 11 extra packages at no additional expense to you.

she: But I don’t need 132 extra boxes of paperclips! What am I supposed to do with them all?

me: (laughing politely.) I understand. Feel free to donate them to your local charity or school.

she: You mean I have to donate them?

me: No ma’am, you do not have to donate them. But it would cost us more to have you return them than they are worth. So if you do not feel you will use them, you are free to donate them to your local charitable organization. I know they will appreciate it.

she: But I don’t have a local charity and I don’t feel like taking them there.

me: That’s fine, you are free to dispose of them however you want. They are yours to keep or donate or throw away.

she: I’m not going to throw them away!

me: That’s fine ma’am. You can do with them whatever you want. Is there anything else I can help you with?

she: What am I going to do with 132 extra boxes of paper clips?

me: It’s really up to you, ma’am, as I’ve already explained. They belong to you now - and didn’t cost you a dime. If you don’t want to donate them or throw them away, perhapds you could make a paper clip chain and paint them as a garland for your Christmas tree . . .

[wherein my supervisor walks by and clicks off the phone so i don’t have to deal with her anymore]

[handsomeharry]

@Maiira

Visitor: Can I touch [priceless artifact made of steel that came from the bottom of the ocean]?
Me: No.
Visitor: Awwww, why not?
Me: Because it’s [large number] years old and very, very fragile. Touching it could cause more damage.
Visitor: What? But it’s metal!
Me: Yes, but you have oils in your fingers that can get etched into the metal and wear it away over time.
Visitor: Aw, come ooonnnn, just this once? That can’t hurt it, can it?
Me: Yes, actually, it can. If I let you touch it, I’d have to let everyone touch it, and the damage would add up.
Visitor: …But it’s metal!
Me: Doesn’t mean it can’t get damaged. Remember, it’s been under the ocean for quite a few years.
Visitor: …But it’s metal!

Twitch

You should have ended the conversation with:“So’s this .38, mug. Now, do you want it in the back, or do you wanna see it comin’?”

[elfkin477]

@PatriotGrrrl

No, believe it or not, some states actually SPEND less. NH, for instance, has no state income tax AND no sales tax.

But it does have a high property tax and the state just doubled the vehicle registration fees to cover new spending.

[Maiira]

@handsomeharry

You should have ended the conversation with:“So’s this .38, mug. Now, do you want it in the back, or do you wanna see it comin’?”

The closest I came to that is waiting until they left and then saying to myself “I have nothing but contempt for you.”

Although I HAVE actually used guns in my explanation before. I believe it was British scientists (here’s an article about it, although I’m sure a better cite exists) that discovered that you can lift fingerprints from guns even after they’ve been wiped off. The reason it works is that the oils from people’s skin etch themselves into the metal. There’s a bit more to it than that (the heat from the gun makes a difference), but folks do get the point.

[vivalostwages]

@vivalostwages

My friend J. wants to lose weight but doesn’t want to stop eating whipped cream, ice cream, sodas, candy, refried beans, starchy foods, etc. And she stuffs herself although it makes her feel uncomfortable later. Still, every day she says she wants to shed some pounds. I sugget tasty lighter fare to her but she says it all sounds gross. We just keep going around in an endless circle.

And her husband insists that since we had a recent rain deluge here in So Cal, it should solve all our drought problems.

[Cat_Whisperer]

@melodyharmonius

<snip>
me: It’s really up to you, ma’am, as I’ve already explained. They belong to you now - and didn’t cost you a dime. If you don’t want to donate them or throw them away, perhapds you could make a paper clip chain and paint them as a garland for your Christmas tree . . .

[wherein my supervisor walks by and clicks off the phone so i don’t have to deal with her anymore]

I think you lasted longer than I would have. For heaven’s sakes, woman, you just got 11 free boxes of paper clips - your biggest problem is not figuring out what to do with them! She sounds like the kind of person who would be pissed off if they won the lottery, because now they have to figure out what to do with all that money.:rolleyes:

ETA: Forgot to say, your company’s return policy sounds damned near perfect.

[Shot_From_Guns]

Stop using ellipses as punctuation. Just stop. You clearly don’t know how to use them, and it makes everything you write sound either ominous or sarcastic. And for the love of fucking god, an ellipsis is three dots. Three. Not two, not four, not five, not a string of however many you get after holding down the key for three whole seconds, as you apparently sometimes are wont to do. Three.

[melodyharmonius]

@Cat_Whisperer

I think you lasted longer than I would have. For heaven’s sakes, woman, you just got 11 free boxes of paper clips - your biggest problem is not figuring out what to do with them! She sounds like the kind of person who would be pissed off if they won the lottery, because now they have to figure out what to do with all that money.:rolleyes:

ETA: Forgot to say, your company’s return policy sounds damned near perfect.

Lol - it’s amazing how much patience you develop dealing with these people. I once had a customer call in asking for advice on fax machines. We were instructed to suggest customers visit their local store so a ‘trained electronics employee’ could help them determine which product was ideal for them. (And cross-sell them a bunch of other neato stuff at the same time!)

At the call center, we received minimal training on these machines - and at that time had little more than the same exact paragraph of information that appeared in your catalog. So we really couldn’t help you.

However, this wouldn’t work for this customer because she was housebound. Mostly because she evidently had walked through 3 plate glass doors in her lifetime and was afraid that she would run in to another one.

And I mean walked THROUGH. Not just in to. We are talking smashed glass everywhere. And evidently, that’s how she met her 3rd and current (at the time) husband - he was her plastic surgeon.

So I got to spend the next 2 hours trying to help her buy the right fax machine and listen to her life story.

[nd_n8]

@Shot_From_Guns

Stop using ellipses as punctuation. Just stop. You clearly don’t know how to use them, and it makes everything you write sound either ominous or sarcastic. And for the love of fucking god, an ellipsis is three dots. Three. Not two, not four, not five, not a string of however many you get after holding down the key for three whole seconds, as you apparently sometimes are wont to do. Three.

I absolutely agree…

@norinew

My husband is convinced that his father is sometimes deliberately obtuse for the sake of the argument. :smack:

…And I must say that, as both a father and a husband, we would never, ever do this.

[Dogzilla]

@Shot_From_Guns

Stop using ellipses as punctuation. Just stop. You clearly don’t know how to use them, and it makes everything you write sound either ominous or sarcastic. And for the love of fucking god, an ellipsis is three dots. Three. Not two, not four, not five, not a string of however many you get after holding down the key for three whole seconds, as you apparently sometimes are wont to do. Three.

Ellipses can be four points.

From the Chicago Manual of Style, 15th Edition, page 460 (bolding mine):

Section 11.57
The three-or-four-dot method is appropriate for poetry and most scholarly works other than legal writings or textual commentary (See 11.62 Legal works and such), Three dots indicate an omission within a quoted sentence. **Four mark the omission of one or more sentences **(but see 11.58 The three-or-four-dot method with other punctuation). When three are used, space occurs both before the first dot and after the final dot. When four are used, the first dot is a true period––that is, there is no space between it and the preceding word. What precedes and, normally, what follows the four dots should be grammatically complete sentences as quoted, even if part of either sentence has been omitted."

[Shot_From_Guns]

@Dogzilla

Ellipses can be four points.

That’s not exactly part of the ellipsis, though–that’s the end punctuation of the sentence. It even says as much for the style maual you’re quoting.

Here, we use the Gregg manual. So, while

First sentence in quote. . . . Next thing after ommitted sentence.

would be correct,

Comment… Followup comment.

is not.

[Dogzilla]

@Shot_From_Guns

That’s not exactly part of the ellipsis, though–that’s the end punctuation of the sentence. It even says as much for the style maual you’re quoting.

Here, we use the Gregg manual. So, while

First sentence in quote. . . . Next thing after ommitted sentence.

would be correct,

Comment… Followup comment.

is not.

Agreed.

[Nzinga_Seated]

@melodyharmonius

So I got to spend the next 2 hours trying to help her buy the right fax machine and listen to her life story.

I bow to your ability for great patience, oh Guru.

[Shot_From_Guns]

@Dogzilla

Agreed.

Hoorah! Let’s go get a drink.

[drastic_quench]

@Shot_From_Guns

Stop using ellipses as punctuation. Just stop. You clearly don’t know how to use them, and it makes everything you write sound either ominous or sarcastic. And for the love of fucking god, an ellipsis is three dots. Three. Not two, not four, not five, not a string of however many you get after holding down the key for three whole seconds, as you apparently sometimes are wont to do. Three.

You’ve been reading my mother’s emails, I see.

[Shot_From_Guns]

@drastic_quench

You’ve been reading my mother’s emails, I see.

If your mother works out of one of our Indian offices, that’s entirely possible.

[AHunter3]

So, AHunter3, today’s your last day with our company. Sorry I’ve been so busy this week, haven’t had much time to touch base.

Oh, that’s OK, I went through a few things and tied up some minor loose ends, and there’s nothing wrong with a quiet week to finish up a gig.

Well, I was hoping you could look at this report you did back in December. The folks downstairs finally got a chance to review it and they want some minor corrections.

::hands over hardcopy of report on which every single line is penned up in red pen, this is wrong, change that, we want only for the records in which the related record author’s second cousin was born before one year before the date on which the report was run, yadda yadda::

Oh yeah, that report. The one with search criteria reminiscent of the Lone Monkey problem.

[QUOTE=Lone Monkey]
The monkey’s mother is one-half as old as the monkey
will be when it is three times as old as its mother was when she was
one-half as old as the monkey will be when it is as old as its mother will
be when she is four times as old as the monkey was when it was twice as
old as its mother was when she was one-third as old as the monkey was when
it was as old as its mother was when she was three times as old as the
monkey was when it was one-fourth as old as its is now.
[/quote]

Umm, as you said, today’s my last day. I can’t fix this. I could fix this in the course of a week. But you’ve got ‘Transactions’ which may be donations/gifts or may be pledges fulfilled by other related gifts in the same ‘Transactions’ table linked to this one but which either are or are not in the same fiscal year and which either did or did not get received by this exact date in the previous fiscal year, and you’ve got ‘Transactions’ which are matching pledges by corporations linked to original ‘Transactions’ which in turn have yet further ‘Transactions’ in fulfillment of them which not only may or may not have come in within the same fiscal year as the matching plege but also may or may not have come in within the same flscal year as the original plege of which this matching pledge is a match. And monies received may have been marked as having been received prior to today’s date one year ago but the marking of it as such may not have taken place until a few days after. And any given gift may or may not have a valid parent record which may or may not be a pledge or a matching pledge which may or may not have a valid parent which is a pledge which may or may not be twice as old as the monkey’s mother when the age of the monkey was one third as long as the rope when the … oh fuckit.

I wish you the best of luck and I wish the folks downstairs had handed you this thing a week ago, but even as fast as I am, this is NOT a one day project. Totally not a LAST day project.

[Harvey_The_Heavy]

The first time I ever stepped up to a real life roulette wheel, some dingus pipes up with “26 hasn’t come up in a long time. It’s due!”. And now I see that the casinos are encouraging this kind of idiocy by having an LED board showing the last thirty or so numbers, so dumbasses can look for “patterns”.