If a depression is “no one is working because there is no demand and there is no demand because no one is working” then why are many so certain than government spending to get the engine going again is so useless? (i realize i’m probably making an over broad generalization.)
But i’ve often heard “it was the war that got us out of the depression” and i’ll concede that. But wasn’t that essentially a giant government works program forced upon us? In the absence of WW2, if we had put everyone to work building ships and airplanes, hauling them to sea, sinking them, repeat, wouldn’t that have had the same impact on heating up the economy. (We could have come up with more useful work, but I hope i’m making my point in the building/sinking ships example.)
It’s also “conceding” that deficit spending phony baloney currency to build a bunch of armaments and eventually kill millions of people is some sort viable economic model.
There’s never one thing when discussing economics. A large group of effects need to come together.
Yes, government spending increased enormously during the war, far, far more than the limited amount conservatives held spending to during the Depression. How did the government do it? The country was brought together by the war. An overwhelmingly huge consensus agreed that abandoning all domestic production and working night and day for years on war goods was absolutely necessary. The workers were also OK that they couldn’t spend their money on homes and cars and appliances and whatnot because they weren’t being made. Severe rationing schemes were accepted, if grumbled at. The workers also agreed to invest huge amounts of their wages into treasury bonds to fund the war effort. That treasury bonds are government debt meant that the level of debt in the country went up to levels never before or since seen, but were OK only because of the war. This caused huge worries for after the war for crippling inflation, but useful production ramped up so quickly that the effect was fleeting and the debt was quickly reduced.
None of this is likely in your hypothetical. World War II was essentially unique. When Johnson tried his guns and butter program during Nam none of it worked because the circumstances were utterly different.
Many of us believe that substantial government deficit spending is very helpful during depressions and recessions–but that when you have an overheated economy you should be running budget surpluses. However both the Democrats and Republicans believe in running massive deficits no matter what the state of the economy (the Democrats preferring spending on social programs, while the Republicans prefer spending on defense and tax cuts).
As strikes across the U.S. slow down the economy, President Roosevelt has chosen to intervene: four times he has ordered the Army or Navy to take over striking factories.
In the six months between December of 1941 and June of 1942, there were 1,200 recorded strikes, 270,000 strikers, and 2.3 million work days lost. Looking at war industries only, the numbers decrease slightly, with 581 strikes, 250,000 strikers and 1 million work days lost. Despite the current agreement negotiated by the War Labor Board (WLB) for major industrial unions to halt strikes in favor of contributing to the war effort, employees are finding it difficult to stick to their word.
Summary
There were 4,750 work stoppages arising from labor-management
disputes in the United States during 1945. This number was greater
than in any preceding year except 1944, when 4,956 occurred. The
number of workers involved in 1945 stoppages (3,467,000) and the
resulting idleness (38,025,000 man-days) were greater than in any
year since 1919—the year following the close of World War I. In
1944, the last full year of the war, 2,116,000 workers were involved in
stoppages, and idleness amounted to less than 9,000,000 man-days.
The equivalent of slightly more than 12 percent of the country’s
employed wage earners were involved in work stoppages during 1945,
and the resulting idleness amounted to about one-half of 1 percent
(0.47 percent) of the available working time in American industry.
The strike wave of 1945–1946 (also called the great strike wave of 1946 )[1] was a series of massive post-war labor strikes after World War II from 1945 to 1946 in the United States spanning numerous industries and public utilities. In the year after V-J Day, more than five million American workers were involved in strikes, which lasted on average four times longer than those during the war.[2] They were the largest strikes in American labor history.
Both Republicans and Democrats believe in spending lots of money no matter the state of the economy, but Democrats will try to raise taxes when the economy is good, and the Republicans will cut them.
I can’t tell if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me.
I’m not arguing in favor of a war. I’m saying we did deficit spending because it was forced on us. So what would have been the different result if we had done the same thing out of choice in the 1930’s except we built useful things instead of building a thing to have it blown up in France or the South Pacific? Call it “phoney baloney” money if you like, but what good is having people sit around? The “phoney baloney” money had the real effect of putting people to work building actual things.
Well, i didn’t mean to switch lanes. I wasn’t proposing that building non-useful things could run an economy long term. I was saying that if the economy is in a catch-22, maybe dumping money to get it moving, even if it means debt, is a better option. And the war forced that option on us, when we could have just spent the same money 10 years earlier.
Is it better to be debt free, living in a car, or is it better to be $500,000 in debt with a roof overhead?
(I know im about to get eviscerated with that broad brushed question.)
Government spending is stimulatory, period. The issue is what government spends on.
The RW point of view is only spending given to corporations is good and they’ll pay their workers and that’s how the money gets into the economy. The LW point of view is you give the money directly to the workers and they spend it into the economy.
Darn good question. But the usual RW position is that giving money to the citizens is simply pouring water into the sand; pure waste without benefit. In teh RW reading of the situation, to achieve actual good with government spending it must somehow be processed through a corporation first on the way to the citizens.
I am not suggesting the RW position makes sense. I’m merely highlighting the difference between the two. Which goes back to the OP’s original post about New Deal vs WWII. Which was really about whether an LW- or RW-leaning economic stimulus did the job.
The idea that WWII got us out of the Depression is a surprisingly-wide-spread idea. But it actually didn’t. All it really did was mask the Depression. As you can see from this chart, GNP took a sharp dip the instant that the war was over.
When the war ended in the middle of 1945, the U.S. went into a period of reconversion of war industries back into domestic products. That created a slight blip lasting for a year. The economy did not take “a sharp dip” in 1946. Instead, GNP was exactly the same as in 1945. Then the economy returned to zooming upward.
Here’s another page that shows the numbers in table form.
GNP doubled from 1940 to 1944. The Depression was long over by the time the war ended.
Many years back I watched a multipart interview with Harry Truman called Plain Speaking, I think. He said that he lived through the downturn right after WW I and government policy, as much as possible, was dedicated to avoiding a repeat. Beyond what you said about the move from war to peace, it took a while to get all the troops back. There was also a shortage of goods like cars. My father left the army to become a security guard for the UN just after it opened, and he got priority for a new car thanks to that.