When The Oil Runs Out

[BrainGlutton]

From James Howard Kunstler’s online column, “Clusterfuck Nation,” at http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary12.html:

February 7, 2005
Over the weekend, a friend asked me, “What if you’re wrong and there’s no global oil peak problem, at least not right away, and maybe never?”
Well, okay, if the global oil peak is a myth or a shuck, we’re still stuck with the American oil peak, which is a fact of history. US crude oil production peaked in 1970, at more than 10 million barrels a day and our production has been going down by a few percentage points every year until it is just over 5 million barrels a day now – and still going down. We get an additional two million barrels a day in natural gas condensates and other liquids. Since Americans consume 20 million barrels of oil a day that means we have to import more than half the oil we use. Every year, we’ll have to import more as our own production goes down.
It is estimated that the US kicked off the oil age in the mid-nineteenth century with about 210 billion barrels of oil underground. According to United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), we now have about 21 billion barrels left, one-tenth of what we started with. If the US had to depend only on its own production, and if we could pump out every last drop, then we would have enough oil to last roughly three years at current rates of consumption. By the way, of the 20+ million barrels a day of oil we use, just under half of that is devoted to motor transport.
Ask yourself: are we going to reform the driving-intensive suburbs of Houston, Atlanta, New Jersey, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Chicago, Washington, et cetera, anytime soon? Do you know of any plans to revive the US passenger rail network?
I guess we’re just going to have to depend on the good will of other oil-producing nations. Incidentally, about two-thirds of the remaining oil in the world belongs to the people in and around the Persian Gulf.
One final thing: the “cornucopians” often claim that oil is a self-renewing resource, that a great master pool of oil exists deep in the earth’s core, like the creamy nougat center of a bonbon, always seeping upward and replenishing the oil fields. If this is so, then how come US production goes consistantly down year after year? Do the Gods just not like us?

[XT]

@James Howard Kunstler'

Well, okay, if the global oil peak is a myth or a shuck, we’re still stuck with the American oil peak, which is a fact of history. US crude oil production peaked in 1970, at more than 10 million barrels a day and our production has been going down by a few percentage points every year until it is just over 5 million barrels a day now – and still going down. We get an additional two million barrels a day in natural gas condensates and other liquids. Since Americans consume 20 million barrels of oil a day that means we have to import more than half the oil we use. Every year, we’ll have to import more as our own production goes down.

And how much oil does Europe produce for itself per day…how about the individual nations like Britian, France, Germany, etc? Half? Less? More? How about Japan? China? Guess they will also have to rely on the ‘good will’ ( :rolleyes: ) of our Islamic brothers and sisters too, ehe?

This is a lot of hot air (as is most of this stuff from your oft cited Clusterfuck Nation) that is snide but doesn’t really say anything meaningful. Ok, so we import over half of our current oil to meet our needs…and that percentage is increasing. So? While I agree with what I assume is his thrust (i.e. we need to develop energy strategies that don’t rely on foreign sources of oil…and oh yeah, pollute the environment to boot), this doesn’t really say how its necessarily a problem. Unless we assume that either the peak oil IS a global problem, or that somehow the ME is going to stop selling oil not only to the US but to the world.

It is estimated that the US kicked off the oil age in the mid-nineteenth century with about 210 billion barrels of oil underground. According to United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), we now have about 21 billion barrels left, one-tenth of what we started with. If the US had to depend only on its own production, and if we could pump out every last drop, then we would have enough oil to last roughly three years at current rates of consumption. By the way, of the 20+ million barrels a day of oil we use, just under half of that is devoted to motor transport.

Fortunately we DON’T have to rely only on what the US has at hand. Good thing for Japan too which has almost no oil at all, ehe?

Over all I would tend to agree that we have depleted our own oil reserves…after all we’ve been heavily using it for over a century now and our own reserves were never as massive as in the ME or other places anyway, and its helped drive our nation and our economy to where it is today. Probably a good trade off if you think about it. Again, nothing startling here or even new.

I agree that about half is used for personal transport…which is why I’m so keen on advancing new technologies that, while they may initially cost more would free us from dependance on ME oil. Its a GOOD thing to have the personal freedom that our personal transportation gives us…we just need to find a way to do it that free’s us from dependance on foreign oil, and also doesn’t have quite as much impact on the environment.

If he advocates the US going whole hog on nuclear energy for the next decade or so to get us up to 70 or 80 (or more) percent nuclear, then I certainly agree that he’s right about one thing…this current situation where the US is too timid to even talk about nuclear power is clearly a ‘cluster fuck’.

Ask yourself: are we going to reform the driving-intensive suburbs of Houston, Atlanta, New Jersey, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Chicago, Washington, et cetera, anytime soon? Do you know of any plans to revive the US passenger rail network?

No, why should we? Oil is still a cheap energy source after all, especially if we disreguard the environmental impacts…which most people will do for the sake of personal expediancy. Until the price rises enough to discourage so much personal travel its unrealistic to expect people NOT to use personal transport. And I don’t even think we need too…we just need to shift to another power source for personal transport, be that electrical, hydrogen or whatever.

Personally I hope the peak oil thing IS true (though I don’t see any real evidence its more than gloom and doom…though a cut above the usual gloom and doom rants for sure) as it will encourage us to look into better, cleaner power sources sooner than we would if there is plenty of cheaper but dirtier energy sources there for the taking.

One final thing: the “cornucopians” often claim that oil is a self-renewing resource, that a great master pool of oil exists deep in the earth’s core, like the creamy nougat center of a bonbon, always seeping upward and replenishing the oil fields. If this is so, then how come US production goes consistantly down year after year? Do the Gods just not like us?

Its a pretty fringe theory he brings up to strawman folks that disagree with him. I doubt that more than a handful of actual scientists even entertain this as more than a possible theory. Of course, it HAS been noted that oil fields in the US that have been left dormant have slowly begun to refill with oil (which is what sparked the theory in the first place if memory serves)…so I guess the gods DO like us.

Even if the theory is true of course we are taking out a lot more than will come back naturally, even if the entire earths core is solide creamy nougat filled pure sweet crude. And even if we find that there are uncounted trillions of barrels of oil still to be tapped in the earth it doesn’t get away from the fact that using oil as we do now pollutes the environment.

-XT

[kniz]

So what is the solution BrainGlutton? Are we supposed to just sit here and cry in our beer or do you think we should be building nuclear plants like France does? We’ve got more coal in the west than the rest of the world combined, could we start gasifying it? That was one solution investigated during Carter’s administration and we had an oil crisis. We can’t just run around yelling “The sky is falling, the sky is falling!”

[BrainGlutton]

@kniz

Are we supposed to just sit here and cry in our beer or do you think we should be building nuclear plants like France does?

I’d go with building nuclear plants and, more importantly, building rail transportation systems – including local light rail and long-distance high-speed rail – which could be powered by the nuclear plants. See http://www.newtrains.org/pages/354049/index.htm.

[kniz]

Thanks BrainGlutton. I believe selling the American people on public transportation will be hard, but you are right, just making freeways wider isn’t a good idea.

On the subject of alternative sources of power, I’ve heard that part of Quebec’s desire for independence comes from some unbelievable source of hyro-electric power that they have. Can someone elaborate on this?

[Mr.Miskatonic]

@mdarling

What made the Y2K screamers crazy was their assumption that nothing would be done to fix the problem- not that there was not a coding problem.

The difference now is that what must be done is not as straightforward and obvious as correcting a few billion lines of code.

Bah, just another bunch of folks screaming “The End is Nigh”. The fact is that the oil age isn’t going to end from lack of oil. There are plenty of sources that can work well. Tar, Shale Oil. The technology needs to improve, but mostly the market drive simply needs to get it there. If peak oil comes even close to happening, that drive will start.

I’m car-free, a bicycle commuter, and peak oil would essentially be a boon for me in many ways. Many of my fellow cyclists are almost salivating for peak oil to happen… But I still ain’t buying it. There’s massive problems with the proponents suggestions (among others, that they misrepresented the database to get figures that agreed with their assessment). Even if it were, the alternatives would get into place. There’s a world of tech out there that can help. I’d list them but other have already done a fine job doing so in this thread already.

[Club_33]

@Blake

Club33 that question has already been asked and answered. I’ll repost.

Thanks for the repost. Sorry I missed it the first time.

[Grey]

@kniz

On the subject of alternative sources of power, I’ve heard that part of Quebec’s desire for independence comes from some unbelievable source of hydro-electric power that they have. Can someone elaborate on this?

Hydroelectric power is so ubiquitous in Ontario and Quebec that for most purposes people refer to hydro instead of electricity. It’s not really considered an alternative energy source up here.

Quebec does have large watersheds available for use, James Bay in particular. Basically you flood thousands of square kms and then dump the stuff through turbines. But it has nothing to do with the separatists. James Bay was a Liberal Party initiative if I remember right.

[Grey]

One final thing: the “cornucopians” often claim that oil is a self-renewing resource, that a great master pool of oil exists deep in the earth’s core, like the creamy nougat center of a bonbon, always seeping upward and replenishing the oil fields. If this is so, then how come US production goes consistantly down year after year? Do the Gods just not like us?

Well the obvious answer would be that the pumping rate exceeds the refresh rate. That or the effect doesn’t exist of course.

[Enola_Straight]

Nuclear, geothermal, hydroelectric, wind turbines, all can generate electricity, but we still need raw feed stock for liquid fuel and lubricants for our vehicles, as well as various petrochemicals.

I believe the Germans developed a method of converting coal into an oil with petroleum-like properties back in the 30s.

Furthermore, Vegetable oils can also be used to augment lube and fuel oils.

Think of what it takes to produce a barrel of crude…prospecting, drilling, pumping…compared to producing an equivalent amount of veggie…planting, fertilizing, harvesting, and pressing a crop.

Several backyard engineers have taken the steps to modifying their diesel vehicles to running on waste vegetable oil (deep fryer grease), used ATF, etc.
Using waste as a resource.

[XT]

@Enola Straight

Nuclear, geothermal, hydroelectric, wind turbines, all can generate electricity, but we still need raw feed stock for liquid fuel and lubricants for our vehicles, as well as various petrochemicals.

Correct me if I’m wrong here (I’m too lazy to look this up atm) but can’t you make hydrocarbons (i.e. oil) out of just about anything given power? I seem to recall a process that converts turkey guts, say, into light sweet crude (or something like that).

As for liquid fuel, there is hydrogen and methane…both can be used to replace gasoline as a transporation fuel either in a fuel cell (to generate electricity) or burned in a modified internal combustion engine.

-XT

[Enola_Straight]

Given enough time, energy and money, you can make anything out of anything.

Its all a matter of cost effectiveness.

Its a lot easier and cheaper to access a pre-existing product with a pre-existing infrastructure.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@Enola Straight

Given enough time, energy and money, you can make anything out of anything.

Its all a matter of cost effectiveness.

Especially if you can harness the power of Biological Transmutations!.

Sponsored by Reynolds Foil Wrap. Don’t use just any aluminum foil! Reynolds Foil has been scientifically demonstrated to block 20% more government mind control rays than the leading brand!

We now return you to your regular programming.

Stranger

[XT]

Actually I was thinking more along the line of this:

Turkey Fuel? Factory to Turn Guts Into Crude Oil

Nicole Davis
for National Geographic News

November 25, 2003
As Americans prepare to gobble down 45 million turkeys on Thursday, a factory in Carthage, Missouri, is turning the feathers and innards of the feted bird into a clean-burning fuel oil. Changing World Technologies (CWT), a New York environmental technology company that is behind the project, also has plans to turn the organic waste from chickens, cows, hogs, onions, and Parmesan cheese into light crude oil—and those are just the some of CWT’s proposed ventures.

Granted that its always easier to work with a ‘pre-existing’ substance (or something thats closer to what you are trying to end up with) Enola Straight…my point was only that we COULD make do, as long as we had power…if we have too. Again, I seriously doubt we ever WILL run out of oil, so to me its a moot point anyway.

-XT