I’m not trolling, I don’t have an agenda and I would be anguished if forced to make a prediction. So, I’m posting in GD and asking what you think their status will be in 5 years. For most of my life they were 3 of the top five companies in US. Now they are all on the verge of bankruptcy.
What is your prediction? What do you really think is going to happen?
They’ll still be around, but they won’t be independent companies.
I think we will see the GMFC Company.
i don’t see much hope for them.
Maybe a renesaince in auto making in North America. Say all three go chapter seven and bascially what then. The collective wisdom so far on the board say even then they go into zombie mode while everything in sight gets repo’ed and whom ever buys the goods for pennys on the dollar decides what models stay and what models go.
in two years nothing is going to happen with the engine and transmission plants that is not already underway, between two and five years you might see the introduction of flex fuel vehicles,battery powered hybrids and tweaked engines that get above to excellent gas milage.
But whats gonna set American automotive apart from the rest of the world counterparts is styling. They are not going to beat the Japanese and Germans in reputation, thats a twenty year slog. If either management as it is , or someone who buys up a product line, has to let the style guys go nuts and turn out something that sweeps the imagination.
Time for the era of production concept cars.
Declan
I have a sense that Ford will survive, but GM and Chrysler will either merge or be bought up in pieces by other car makers. Ford is able to sell cars in foreign markets such as Europe in a way the other two can’t seem to do.
I see them using 14 kinds of gears in a flawed propeller driveshaft…
I think we’ll stop seeing “real” Chrysler and Dodge cars as Chrysler has tentatively agreed to assemble Nissan Versa cars, with some of the cars rebranded as Dodges.
Nissan is giving up on the large pickup market and is supposedly going to market a re-grilled Dodge Ram in 2010.
Chrysler-built minivans still hold a slim plurality in that market.
Jeep, or at least the old school “real Jeep”–the Wrangler and its related heavy-duty export versions-- will live. The re-branded Dodge Calibers and possibly the Grand Cherokee will die.
As a truck/minivan/assemble-for-hire outfit, Chrysler could make it. If they try to remain “full-line”, they’re toast.
GM will kill either Pontiac or Buick. There are few free-standing Pontiac or Buick dealers now as GM has converted most to PBG–Pontiac/Buick/GMC under the same roof --by now. BTW, a sizable number of truck buyers" knows absolutely" that GMC is “vastly superior” and would not buy a “cheap-ass Chevy” if GMC died.
Saturn has no reason to live and could be killed more easily than Olds was because of a much smaller dealer network than Olds had.
Ford has lots of interesting European stuff that has potential here.
The Big 3 will all still be here, but the UAW will be pissed when its golden medical bennies are dropped as universal Obamacare comes on-line.
Dodge/Chrysler/Plymouth has been rebadging cars for a long time, the old Dodge Colt from the 1980’s was a Mitsubishi. Chevy does this too with cars like the Geo Metro and Chevy Nova (the 80’s version, not the 60s/70s.)
Hopefully Dodge/Chrsyler will keep making cars, they still have apparently successful cars like the Charger and Chrysler 300 (haven’t checked the numbers, but I see a LOT of them.)
Ford claims the reason they don’t bring the European stuff here is because of the time and expense of retooling the factories. Well…do it!
I think Saturn will stay around, they have a certain segment of the market that likes the no haggle thing. I think of it as getting ripped off equally to everyone else.
And I’d like to add, GM needs to get a fucking clue if they think large numbers of people are going to pay $40,000 for the Volt. Maybe $25,000.
As for the styling question, American cars are awful in my opinion. It seems so ridiculous, but what we need now are more conservative designs. Look at BMW, for example. Their look has changed a lot less over the years and it seems to help. Whereas Detroit always seems to be going for some kind of “edgy” look which only serves to make it look more dated in the future. All I want is a car that doesn’t make me look ridiculous. Far more attention needs to be paid to the interiors so it doesn’t feel like it was made from melted-down Dixie cups.
If the big three can make a car that
A) has respectable, adult styling
B) gets respectable gas mileage
C) doesn’t feel cheap on the inside
D) can go 100k miles without significant problems
Then I’ll be in the market for an American car next time I buy one. It seems to me that people who buy based on utility usually go for Japanese imports, and people who are especially concerned with conservative styling and interior quality go for the European imports. American cars rarely have either quality.
I live in Michigan. It’s not good for my stress levels to think about this.
If they do fall I predict either a mass exodus of Michigan or someone buys them out. They have some pretty valuable equipment and assets so they stand a good chance of buyout.
My biggest fear with a buy out is someone buying them out then shipping all the equipment elsewhere. Kind of a double fuck you to Michigan.
What could save them would a decent national health care package combined with lower gas prices.
I think the highly paid workers (like making $40 an hour on the assembly line) need to choose between a lower salary and less benefits, or losing their jobs.
Did I hear something over the summer about Ford starting off some workers at $15 per hour now?
Agreed. The unions are too powerful now and it’s out of balance. The AM general plant (which supplies GM with parts) in my town striked over benefits. The workers striking made $35 an hour. Shut down production in a bunch of other GM plants because they needed the parts from that factory. I was pissed because their greed was hurting the rest of us. Cars are Michigan’s biggest industry and it hurts the whole state when they do stuff like that.
I have a 1997 Ford Ranger that meets all four requirements. 11 years/130K miles
with only an oxygen sensor and original battery going during the 36mo./36K mile warranty; and only a starter and thermostat since. 60K miles on a set of tires.
22mpg average. Up to 26 without AC.
No rips or tears in carpet and upholstery, though my 260 lbs. has made the driver’s seat about an inch lower than the paaenger’s over the years.
How much more conservative than a Ranger can you get in the styling department? In fact, the Toyota and Nissan pickups of that era had a cartoon-ninja sort of grillework.
I also have a 2002 Aztek that meets 3 out of 4 of your requirements. And if you see beauty beyond the skin-deep, it meets the 4th one as it is quite practical.
A lot of “quality” issues are a function of our national inferiority complex. The GM/ Toyota joint venture plant in L.A. produces Corollas, Matrixes, and Pontiac Vibes.
The Pontiac always rates lower in Consumer Reports surveys than the Vibe, yet IT’S THE SAME CAR with a different grille.
I know people with Corollas made at that plant who, although they’ve experienced no significant problems in 2-5 years and 20-80K miles, insist that if they could have a REAL Corolla from Japan, they’d dump their present car because, “Americans don’t give a shit and do a poorer job.”
I grew up in Flint, MI. While I have a deep seated desire to see them all crash and burn, and sometimes think it might be better to go down in flames to rebuild something better, I still see how crappy it would be should they all fail…
To answer to OP, I kinda think GM, at least is going down the tubes. I’m fairly certain Delphi, a significant supplier to all three, though especially GM is probably not going to last another year, and GM is going to have trouble recovering.