Where is that predicted Stock Market CRASH?

[Inigo_Montoya]

I’m reasonably convinced the financial world views Trump as being as big a joke as most of the rest of the world, his country, the government, and even his own family/cabinet does. Nothing he says or does at this point is of consequence, hence there is no reason to panic about any of it. The USA is effectively decapitated, having no moral or political leadership, and yet the train is chugging right along on its rails. As much as anything it makes me wonder whether or not we even need a president.

[Little_Nemo]

@Asuka

According to the knee-jerk reactions on election night here apparently by the end of 2017 the entire country was suppose to be a crazy fascist dictatorship with LGBT and minorities being lynched in the streets.

And according to a different set of knee-jerk reactions on election night, any talk about how we’d soon be seeing white supremacists holding public rallies and people rounded up and put into camps was silly.

[Little_Nemo]

@Measure_for_Measure

Look at price/earnings ratios.
Back in reality, here’s what the stock market looks like. It’s basically been a straight shot upwards since 2010. There was a dip below trendline in 2016, mostly growth at trendline during 2017, a little up and down since then. https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/06/stock-market-still-in-the-trump-doldrums/
Trump has a somewhat heightened ability to set off a recession via eg impetuous sanctions on Turkey, or a global tradewar. But the bigger problem is that he doesn’t have a serious team in place at Treasury if a financial crisis, foreign or domestic, rears its head. Obama had a solid crew, and GWBush had one in place once Henry Paulson was appointed. Paulson made some key errors regarding Lehman, but at least he knew what he was doing.

That’s the fundamental I look at. If you put an idiot in charge, you’re eventually going to see some major problems. If the idiot’s in charge during a crisis, big problems will arise quickly. If an idiot’s put in charge of a fundamentally sound operation, he might be able to coast along for months with only small problems accumulating. But eventually a crisis will emerge, either spontaneously or due to the accumulation of small problems, and then the big problems will follow.

[Mangosteen]

@Snowboarder_Bo

Somebody remind me: how long was Obama in office before he confiscated everyone’s guns?

Never had the power to even if he wanted. Thanks for staying on topic, Bob.

[Mangosteen]

@Wendell_Wagner

Here’s a chart of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average over the past ten years:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow…-last-10-years

Trump hasn’t had that much effect on the market. The market has steadily risen since early 2009, which is the real beginning of the current bull market. Yes, the market rose somewhat faster starting from Trump’s election in November 2016 to January 2018, but it peaked in January 2018, and since then it hasn’t risen at all. It’s actually down a little since then. That doesn’t look to me like the stock market deciding that (based on what he claimed he would do once he took office) Trump was going to be much better than Obama at creating financial policy that would be good for them and continuing to believe it since then. That looks like the market deciding that he would be much better, given his pre-election claims, but after a year of his being in office, they decided that his policies weren’t much better for them at all. Then they let the market go back down somewhat.

The nine and a half years since early 2009 are indeed one of the biggest bull markets in American financial history. So what? Those years are basically a recovery from the big drop in the market from about the end of 2007 to about the beginning of 2009. The usual explanation of that drop over about a year and a half is that it was the bursting of the housing market bubble. It’s not even really clear that the steady rise in the market since early 2009 is an unreservedly good thing. Long market climbs at a fast pace are basically followed by crashes. Do you know what the fastest climb in the history of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average was? (The Dow-Jones Industrial Average has existed since 1896.) It was the nine years immediately before the stock market crash of 1929. The climb from 2009 to the present isn’t as nearly as much as the climb from 1920 to 1929, but it’s enough that it should make us a little worried.

Yes, but the question is, "Where is the immediate post election Crash that was predicted by all the liberal economists?

[running_coach]

@Snowboarder_Bo

Somebody remind me: how long was Obama in office before he confiscated everyone’s guns?

@Mangosteen

Never had the power to even if he wanted. Thanks for staying on topic, Bob.

Yet gun-owners were constantly beating that very drum.
Why Donald Trump Is Bad for Gun Sales

Gun giant Smith & Wesson, which has renamed itself American Outdoor Brands, said that its quarterly net sales had declined nearly 40% in the fiscal quarter ending July 31. That’s $78 million in fewer overall sales, and the drop may be closer to $100 million year-over-year if you’re only taking firearms revenues into account.

The NRA put out multiple ads warning that 2016 Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would push strong gun control legislation if elected (including this horror movie-esque advertisement arguing a Clinton presidency would “leave you defenseless”). Clinton and former President Barack Obama both made gun violence prevention legislation, including bans on assault rifles and national background check bills, major priorities in the wake of the 2012 Sandy Hook massacre that left 20 children and six adults dead at a Connecticut elementary school.

Clinton’s candidacy was one of the main catalysts for a record-breaking spike in 2016 gun sales as the industry played on consumer paranoia that the government would be “coming for their guns.” So, to an extent, 2017 was bound to be a bear year for gun purchases given last year’s firearms-palooza. Other gun makers like Sturm Ruger & Company have also reported precipitous sales drops this year.

[rbroome]

OP makes a good point. Trump is not bad news for the market. He is probably good news-but that won’t be known for years.

What interests me, now that the investment advisors have had their say, is how similar the reactions have been to Trump and Obama. Just flip the letters R and D, and you basically get the same responses about either era. Some fear for the republic now, some feared for the republic several years ago. Neither the facts nor the fears change, just the letters.

[BeepKillBeep]

@Mangosteen

liberal economists?

LOL

[HMS_Irruncible]

@rbroome

What interests me, now that the investment advisors have had their say, is how similar the reactions have been to Trump and Obama. Just flip the letters R and D, and you basically get the same responses about either era. Some fear for the republic now, some feared for the republic several years ago. Neither the facts nor the fears change, just the letters.

It’s true that expectations depend on whether your party is in power or not. But a full term’s worth of hindsight tells whether those expectations are justified or not. The past 2 Dem presidents have presided over long net economic expansions. The past 2 (complete) Repub terms have started down and ended down. We are only 18 months into the current presidential term, which continues a long run of expansion, so it seems a bit soon to think history has spoken.

But I’ll restate my admission that I thought Trump’s economic humbling would have already been evident by now, and I’m mostly wrong about that.

[Mangosteen]

@pullin

First, the serious answer to your question: Conservative Republican here: I still believe the markets are in trouble, long term. The combined weight of unpayable public debt, infrastructure deterioration, the Western drought and its future threat to California’s farming industry, and the structural changes in “work” cannot be ignored. I don’t know if it will be sudden and bubble-ish, triggered by a political or natural event, or if it will be like a long term receding wave that depresses returns for decades. Either way I expect a reckoning, and I’m trying to prepare myself and my family (adult kids) for it.

I didn’t, and became 6 figures richer in a very short time.

I’ve been selling and transferring at each high, placing those gains in the most secure cash-like investments I can find. I’ve also been using some gains to pay off remaining debt.

I came to the conclusion a long time ago that anyone who’s found a secret to investing surely isn’t going to share it. Doing so would negate any gains for them. If they’re on a screen or book cover and advising you, they’re almost certainly full of shit. I ignore all of them.

I agree with you 100%. The economy is in for a huge crash, one that will make 1929 look like a Sunday picnic. As interest rates rise, interest on the US government debt will not be paid off and the fun will begin. One escape might be Real Estate in an area far from a city with a year round growing season, fertile soil and adequate rainfall, but I would fully expect that any food would be stolen by marauders at gun point or confiscated by government officials at gunpoint for the “good of the community”.

[Plumbkrazy]

It’s no surprise the stock market is doing well. Corporations love avoiding taxes and being allowed to run amok with little to no regulation. Unfortunately for most people, a strong stock market means squat. That means stockholders and executives are making a truckload of cash, while the average worker earns the same stagnant wages we’ve enjoyed since the 1980s.

Why would people predict a market crash after the election? probably because it’s a regular occurrence when Republicans are in control. That includes 2009, right after President Gilligan left office.

The fact that the crash hasn’t happened yet means nothing. Give Trump some time and he’ll make a mess of things. He fucks up everything he gets involved in. He would’ve flubbed the election too, if half of Americans weren’t dumb as shit.

[VinylTurnip]

@Mangosteen

I agree with you 100%. The economy is in for a huge crash, one that will make 1929 look like a Sunday picnic. As interest rates rise, interest on the US government debt will not be paid off and the fun will begin. One escape might be Real Estate in an area far from a city with a year round growing season, fertile soil and adequate rainfall, but I would fully expect that any food would be stolen by marauders at gun point or confiscated by government officials at gunpoint for the “good of the community”.

Well, at least when we’re all roaring around in our heavily armed dune buggies dodging cannibals we won’t need to pass the time speculating why economists were wrong about something.

[bobot]

**Where is that predicted Stock Market CRASH?

**Obama’s recovery that initiated and sustained the majority of this record length bull market is obviously too powerful to be defeated by Trump in a mere few years.

[begbert2]

I actually find myself wondering if, had we not been graced with a dipshit at the wheel, the stock market might have leveled off sooner. It’s been floated in this thread that letting corporations off the leash and gutting the treasury might have stoked the stock market, pushing it to ever-more-precipitous heights. Without reckless boosts of that type, might the market have leveled off?

[Flyer]

@pullin

First, the serious answer to your question: Conservative Republican here: I still believe the markets are in trouble, long term. The combined weight of unpayable public debt, infrastructure deterioration, the Western drought and its future threat to California’s farming industry, and the structural changes in “work” cannot be ignored. I don’t know if it will be sudden and bubble-ish, triggered by a political or natural event, or if it will be like a long term receding wave that depresses returns for decades. Either way I expect a reckoning, and I’m trying to prepare myself and my family (adult kids) for it.

@F.U.Shakespeare

I think the markets are currently overpriced, due to speculation caused by cuts in taxes and regulations. Whether an acute correction (or more) occurs in the medium term, I think the likely increase in the deficit (even more likely if growth slows), leading to even faster growth in the national debt (combined with rising interest rates) will have a long-term dampening effect on the markets.

@mcgato

I have a co-worker who asks my opinion about the market, and she asked my thoughts after Trump won. I said that short term, the market would probably be good. I believed that Trump’s policies would favor business by reducing regulations and looking the other way about questionable practices. Long term, three to five years, I thought that it could be a catastrophe.

Part of the current run up in the US market is due to the huge tax cut favoring big business. A lot of companies are buying back stock, which is increasing the overall market. I looked at the current S&P 500 P/E ratio and it is at 25.10. The only times that it has been higher is pre-2008 meltdown, pre-tech bubble meltdown (1999-2001), and 1895 or so. I don’t see this ending well.

I find it quite humorous that so many people view bear markets and recessions as catastrophic. Such things are often quite painful in the short term, but well-nigh meaningless in the long term. To hear people such as the above posters talk, one would think that any average recession has the power to permanently end all prosperity in this country.

Pro-tip: recessions, stock market corrections, etc. are not the “end” of anything, except perhaps a certain specific cycle. Your mental health would be much better served if you would realize that such things are merely a temporary interruption of the long-term trend.

[begbert2]

@Flyer

I find it quite humorous that so many people view bear markets and recessions as catastrophic. Such things are often quite painful in the short term, but well-nigh meaningless in the long term. To hear people such as the above posters talk, one would think that any average recession has the power to permanently end all prosperity in this country.

Pro-tip: recessions, stock market corrections, etc. are not the “end” of anything, except perhaps a certain specific cycle. Your mental health would be much better served if you would realize that such things are merely a temporary interruption of the long-term trend.

Well, there was that one time…

[Musicat]

If the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, does the stock market go up or down?

[F.U.Shakespeare]

@F.U.Shakespeare

I think the markets are currently overpriced, due to speculation caused by cuts in taxes and regulations. Whether an acute correction (or more) occurs in the medium term, I think the likely increase in the deficit (even more likely if growth slows), leading to even faster growth in the national debt (combined with rising interest rates) will have a long-term dampening effect on the markets.

@Flyer

I find it quite humorous that so many people view bear markets and recessions as catastrophic. Such things are often quite painful in the short term, but well-nigh meaningless in the long term. To hear people such as the above posters talk, one would think that any average recession has the power to permanently end all prosperity in this country.

Pro-tip: recessions, stock market corrections, etc. are not the “end” of anything, except perhaps a certain specific cycle. Your mental health would be much better served if you would realize that such things are merely a temporary interruption of the long-term trend.

I’m not sure why you’d get that message (bolded) from what I wrote.

Recessions aren’t permanent, but big ones can feel pretty catastrophic to someone within ten years of retirement. Of course, people need to plan for such things (by re-balancing, etc.), but statistically improbable events can fool even prudent investors. IIRC, the DJIA took until 1954 to return to its pre-1929 level with inflation accounted for.

Also: it’s not just an alternative between bullish or bearish: markets can be *stagnant *for long periods, which can make it harder for younger people to build long-term wealth (especially if accompanied by inflation).

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

Where is the predicted crash? I will second the answer that big corporate tax cuts have mostly been used to make corporations richer, including through stock buybacks. This drives up the DOW, S&P 500 &etc, but the US is borrowing $1T/yr to fund it. But it isn’t, mostly, due to more factories producing more widgets and paying more to more workers for it- companies just pay less tax and pocket the difference.

Are stock buybacks new? Nope. Are huge deficits new? Well, maybe during a halfway peaceful period of prosperity, but overall nothing new. But future generations are going to have to pay off $20-30T+, with maybe $1T+/yr in interest alone. That’s new. I hope future generations are fabulously wealthy, or else they are screwed.

[Voyager]

@Flyer

I find it quite humorous that so many people view bear markets and recessions as catastrophic. Such things are often quite painful in the short term, but well-nigh meaningless in the long term. To hear people such as the above posters talk, one would think that any average recession has the power to permanently end all prosperity in this country.

Pro-tip: recessions, stock market corrections, etc. are not the “end” of anything, except perhaps a certain specific cycle. Your mental health would be much better served if you would realize that such things are merely a temporary interruption of the long-term trend.

Given that I kept my job, didn’t panic and sell, and kept buying after the 2007 recession it was hardly the end of the world for me. Those who lost their jobs and their homes probably didn’t view it so fondly.
After 2009 quite a lot was done for the victims of the recession. If the next one hits during a Trump administration, will the conservatives who kept saying there were plenty of jobs even during the depths of the recession approve extensions of unemployment and other “giveaways?” If not, things could be even worse.