I’m reasonably convinced the financial world views Trump as being as big a joke as most of the rest of the world, his country, the government, and even his own family/cabinet does. Nothing he says or does at this point is of consequence, hence there is no reason to panic about any of it. The USA is effectively decapitated, having no moral or political leadership, and yet the train is chugging right along on its rails. As much as anything it makes me wonder whether or not we even need a president.
And according to a different set of knee-jerk reactions on election night, any talk about how we’d soon be seeing white supremacists holding public rallies and people rounded up and put into camps was silly.
That’s the fundamental I look at. If you put an idiot in charge, you’re eventually going to see some major problems. If the idiot’s in charge during a crisis, big problems will arise quickly. If an idiot’s put in charge of a fundamentally sound operation, he might be able to coast along for months with only small problems accumulating. But eventually a crisis will emerge, either spontaneously or due to the accumulation of small problems, and then the big problems will follow.
Never had the power to even if he wanted. Thanks for staying on topic, Bob.
Yes, but the question is, "Where is the immediate post election Crash that was predicted by all the liberal economists?
Yet gun-owners were constantly beating that very drum.
Why Donald Trump Is Bad for Gun Sales
OP makes a good point. Trump is not bad news for the market. He is probably good news-but that won’t be known for years.
What interests me, now that the investment advisors have had their say, is how similar the reactions have been to Trump and Obama. Just flip the letters R and D, and you basically get the same responses about either era. Some fear for the republic now, some feared for the republic several years ago. Neither the facts nor the fears change, just the letters.
It’s true that expectations depend on whether your party is in power or not. But a full term’s worth of hindsight tells whether those expectations are justified or not. The past 2 Dem presidents have presided over long net economic expansions. The past 2 (complete) Repub terms have started down and ended down. We are only 18 months into the current presidential term, which continues a long run of expansion, so it seems a bit soon to think history has spoken.
But I’ll restate my admission that I thought Trump’s economic humbling would have already been evident by now, and I’m mostly wrong about that.
I agree with you 100%. The economy is in for a huge crash, one that will make 1929 look like a Sunday picnic. As interest rates rise, interest on the US government debt will not be paid off and the fun will begin. One escape might be Real Estate in an area far from a city with a year round growing season, fertile soil and adequate rainfall, but I would fully expect that any food would be stolen by marauders at gun point or confiscated by government officials at gunpoint for the “good of the community”.
It’s no surprise the stock market is doing well. Corporations love avoiding taxes and being allowed to run amok with little to no regulation. Unfortunately for most people, a strong stock market means squat. That means stockholders and executives are making a truckload of cash, while the average worker earns the same stagnant wages we’ve enjoyed since the 1980s.
Why would people predict a market crash after the election? probably because it’s a regular occurrence when Republicans are in control. That includes 2009, right after President Gilligan left office.
The fact that the crash hasn’t happened yet means nothing. Give Trump some time and he’ll make a mess of things. He fucks up everything he gets involved in. He would’ve flubbed the election too, if half of Americans weren’t dumb as shit.
Well, at least when we’re all roaring around in our heavily armed dune buggies dodging cannibals we won’t need to pass the time speculating why economists were wrong about something.
**Where is that predicted Stock Market CRASH?
**Obama’s recovery that initiated and sustained the majority of this record length bull market is obviously too powerful to be defeated by Trump in a mere few years.
I actually find myself wondering if, had we not been graced with a dipshit at the wheel, the stock market might have leveled off sooner. It’s been floated in this thread that letting corporations off the leash and gutting the treasury might have stoked the stock market, pushing it to ever-more-precipitous heights. Without reckless boosts of that type, might the market have leveled off?
I find it quite humorous that so many people view bear markets and recessions as catastrophic. Such things are often quite painful in the short term, but well-nigh meaningless in the long term. To hear people such as the above posters talk, one would think that any average recession has the power to permanently end all prosperity in this country.
Pro-tip: recessions, stock market corrections, etc. are not the “end” of anything, except perhaps a certain specific cycle. Your mental health would be much better served if you would realize that such things are merely a temporary interruption of the long-term trend.
Well, there was that one time…
If the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, does the stock market go up or down?
I’m not sure why you’d get that message (bolded) from what I wrote.
Recessions aren’t permanent, but big ones can feel pretty catastrophic to someone within ten years of retirement. Of course, people need to plan for such things (by re-balancing, etc.), but statistically improbable events can fool even prudent investors. IIRC, the DJIA took until 1954 to return to its pre-1929 level with inflation accounted for.
Also: it’s not just an alternative between bullish or bearish: markets can be *stagnant *for long periods, which can make it harder for younger people to build long-term wealth (especially if accompanied by inflation).
Where is the predicted crash? I will second the answer that big corporate tax cuts have mostly been used to make corporations richer, including through stock buybacks. This drives up the DOW, S&P 500 &etc, but the US is borrowing $1T/yr to fund it. But it isn’t, mostly, due to more factories producing more widgets and paying more to more workers for it- companies just pay less tax and pocket the difference.
Are stock buybacks new? Nope. Are huge deficits new? Well, maybe during a halfway peaceful period of prosperity, but overall nothing new. But future generations are going to have to pay off $20-30T+, with maybe $1T+/yr in interest alone. That’s new. I hope future generations are fabulously wealthy, or else they are screwed.
Given that I kept my job, didn’t panic and sell, and kept buying after the 2007 recession it was hardly the end of the world for me. Those who lost their jobs and their homes probably didn’t view it so fondly.
After 2009 quite a lot was done for the victims of the recession. If the next one hits during a Trump administration, will the conservatives who kept saying there were plenty of jobs even during the depths of the recession approve extensions of unemployment and other “giveaways?” If not, things could be even worse.