I think it’s going up, a lot, over the next few years. Low inflation, room to lower fed rates if necessary, high growth in GNP, lots of money on the sidelines, as my broker friends say. Also market’s been down for quite a few years.
Over the long term, up.
Over the short term, if I know, I’m certainly not telling you.
Obviously, nobody knows for sure. But for what it’s worth, Warren Buffett (who’s been right over the years more than almost anybody) thinks we’re looking at a prolonged period of low growth. Hence, he’s going heavily for stocks like Anheuser-Busch, NOT because he expects huge returns, but because he believes they’ll yield steady-but-modest returns, and he thinks that’s about as good as it’s going to get for a while.
I think it was J.P. Morgan, who when asked what the market was going to do, replied, “Fluctuate.”
When the DJ got back to 10,000, I predicted that it would bounce up and down in than range for up to five years. So far, have been correct. It did this a few decades ago when I first started investing, and it was pretty frustrating. At least did not lose.
In the long run, I still have confidence that it will consistantly grow, but you have to be patient. Be a long time before it ever goes nuts again as in the 90s.
Five, to be exact.
Energy prices through the roof. No immediately obvious new technologies on the horizon to drive the economy. I’m not convinced.
You forgot “leading edge of the boomers turning 60.” They have a lot of money tied up in the market, and are going to be moving it to less risky choices and/or start spending it down.
lessee, aenemic growth, interest rates heading higher, oil prices through the roof feeding through to inflation, dollar in the dumps and likely to stay there given the fiscal irresponsibility of the government, foreign money not likely to park in dollar denominated assets, baby boomers starting to retire and pull money out of the market, more jobs off shoring…then factor in what happens to the massive consumer debt that most American’s hold when interest rates go up.
by no means given that the markets will go up. Furthermore, having lived through several bear markets, said markets can last a lot longer than anyone thinks possible.
Also, I would never listen to a broker having been in that game for 8 years. Generally speaking, brokers and especially retail brokers only make money if the market goes up, ipso facto they tell the marks it’s gonna go up.