Which country is more stable, Iraq or Afganistan?
Probably Afghanistan, the towns and cities sound quiet(ish)
- it is the badlands that are a problem
Right this minute or potentially? I’d say right this minute its a tossup…they are both pretty bad off. Perhaps Afganistan is more ‘stable’ in the sense that, at least where the government DOES have control its relatively peaceful. Of course, the government doesn’t exactly HAVE control of the entire country. Iraq on the other hand is just about completely under the control of the government (i.e. there are no warlords holding major cities, not regions completely outside the central governments control, etc). On the other hand, in the areas the govenrment DOES control there is anything BUT peace…and Iraq does seem to be slipping toward all out civil war as the various religious factions continue to hit each other more and more violently.
POTENTIALLY though I’d give it to Iraq. They have the natural resources and they also have the education base and, at least in theory, the infrastructure (whats left of it) to be far more stable than Afghanistan, who has none of those things (unless we count the drug trade).
-XT
Afghanistan’s economy is pumping out it’s traditional trade goods at a rate which dwarfs pre-war exports.
Iraq’s oil production is still lower than it was in the days of Saddam.
It is hard to relate to Afghanistan. When traditional warlords are strong and running areas, and wage drug wars against each other, my mind boggles at the comination of ancient history and modern s getting very rich. and won’t stay down on the farm for long.
The Taliban is still alive and will not go away. It is a mess.
Iraq is also. There are blogs written by people in the area. They describe the difficulty and fear they live under. ( A Family In Iraq) (Free Iraq) for instance. They live with a feeling of helplessness. They do not feel like any thing they do can help or hurt. They are defenseless pawns. Many suggest the deterioration is steady and unmistakable.
Afghanistan is more homogenous as to language, ethnicity, culture, etc. It’s also not very geographically diverse. While it is involved in its own civil conflict (of a primarily religious nature), it’s not like Iraq, with three definite groupings of significantly diverse population, continuing a war among themselves interrupted over the course of the last 15 centuries only when some strong external force enforces the peace.
Afghanistan is definitely more stable IMHO. Iraq takes more troops to hold, is much more expensive and much more deadly for foreigners than Afghanistan is. I cannot predict the furture but for now, and for the past 3 years, it has been much more stable by most objective measures.
Afghanistan is dependant on ~10% of the foreign Troops that Iraq is (with an Afghanistan population that is about 15% greater). Iraq has seen about 6 times the coalition soldiers killed in almost a year and a half shorter war. The cost of the war in Iraq has been more than 4X that of Afghanistan
Based on
Afghanistan:
~15,000 more or less permanent foreign troops in a population of 30 million
The entire war has seen Coalition Dead 423 and ~1000 injured
the cost was $66 Billion by Sept 2005
Iraq :
~150,000 more or less permanent foreign troops in a population of 26 million
Coalition Dead 2,834 and ~20,000 injured
Cost 307 Billion through today
Isn’t this kind of like asking who is sluttier, Pam Anderson or Anna Nicole Smith?
Afghanistan has some pretty serious ethnic heterogeneity going on. From the CIA World Factbook:
And, although Sunnis dominate religiously, there is a significant Shi’ite minority (19%).
There is also the issue that most of Afghanistan’s major ethnic groups have a significant presence outside of Afghanistan; most notably, there are large Pashtun populations on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border, leading to occasional irredentist talk of a greater “Pashtunistan” and a generally porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan; there are also obviously plenty of Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Turkmen in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
What are the US-boosting blogs writing? Facing reality or off in fantasy?