10 years hitched and counting…
Dipstick.
I don’t think this counts. As the wikipedia article points out:
Here I think wikipedia is under-emphasizing the fact that hardly anyone who believes the universe is fine-tuned also believes that we just got obscenely lucky. They believe that a fine-tuned universe is anthropically inevitable.
[Moderator Warning]
Entheogen, insults are not permitted in this forum, as you should know. This is an official warning. Do not do this again.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
When I was learning statistics, it was pointed out* that probabilities are not a measure of our knowledge, but rather a measure of our level of lack of knowledge. If we know something, we know its probability is either 1 or 0. If we don’t know it, that’s when we assign a probability (such as 1:1,000) to it. It tells us how uncertain we are about it.
*By book author or instructor? I don’t remember. It’s uncertain.
I have never really seen a good intuitive definition of probability. Every intro to statistics or probability text I have read starts with a few ideas on explaining probability to new students. The ones that resonate with me explain probability in terms of gambling. You have the probability correct if over a long stretch of bets the money returned for a given the money won and lost is zero. With things like rolling a pair of dice we can perform a large number of tests and see that the results converge on theory. With things like shuffling a deck of cards and getting a specific order of cards the number of possibilities are so enormous we cannot see if each shuffled deck corresponds to theory. It is even worse when you get to less defined problems like the odds of winning the lottery twice which depends on people deciding to spend their money on lottery tickets instead of anything else. What is the probability of buying a lottery ticket instead of a coke when you get gas?
What about the formation of our moon? There’s only one, it’s enormity in relation to the Earth is unparalelled, and everything that follows depends upon the combination of it’s mixing of the oceans and the predictable, cyclical, way it does it.
I would even say that science itself formed because the moon cycle’s are predictable and measurable.
“Fine-tuned universe” seems like a lead-in to intelligent design. However, the fine tuned universe could be disproved as an idea, which means it is appropriate for science to consider it.
Consider an M-dimensional space, in which an event (an explosion) occurs. This “explosion” gives rise to a “fireball”, which dissipates in general but forms stable N-dimensional structures for specific values of some of the M dimensions. Think of it as like a smoke cloud that forms and trails away at exactly one altitude when the atmospheric conditions are right, while dissipating at all other altitudes.
You therefore wind up with one or more N-dimensional “universes” that display stable (or metastable) properties. One of those universes is our own.
When viewed this way, the formation of the universe is not seen as a hugely improbable event, but an absolutely deterministic event, given that the original generating “explosion” occurs in the M-space.
I am told that Stephen Hawking is quoted as saying that “this must be true because the universe exists…” but I confess that I have failed to find that quote by him and do not know if what I was told is true.
This guy must be up there in the low probability stakes. Of the however many billions of humans who have existed, he happened to be in the only two cities ever attacked by atomic bombs, and he survived both. He is the only person recognised as having done so.
As you state, he’s the only one recognized as having survived both blasts. But, as your link notes, there were actually 160 such double survivors (making him much less than unique, and what he experienced not even all that rare).
…Yet taking shots at someone’s specific sexual history in a demeaning manner is kosher? Killer.
[Moderating]
You were the one who started out insulting all the male members of the board, including yourself by saying it was highly improbable that the male members of the board would lose their virginity, including yourself. Since you included yourself in your insult, I’m not sure why you took offense when TriPolar remarked on it. (Admittedly something he should not have done.) You then specifically and explicitly insulted TriPolar, which is why you received a warning.
If you have anything further to say on the issue, take it to ATMB.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
Improbable events are much more impressive when you watch it happen before your own eyes. To make a long story short I launched a solar balloon which traveled 30+ miles up to 8,000’ on a windy day. I mean to say it was windy up high. A few hours later it came back to 30’ from where I launched it and landed. I don’t even understand why it came down at all. Another balloon was going up at the time. There was no damage and the sun was still high. The opposite course. At a steep angle so it didn’t hit any trees surrounding the clearing. I watched it from being a speck on the horizon, then 45 degrees up above. It came down straight at that angle. It’s a miracle I even noticed it. It’s interesting because I was writing code to make it deflate when it is above a treeless field so I can retrieve it. I tried to calculate the odds of it traveling the same heading in reverse. The distance within 30’. Coming down at all during daylight. Multiply them together it’s in the millions. Thinking further I realized that’s how weather patterns generally work. The opposite direction at a different altitude. I was between a lake and mountain. Really not so impressive compared to winning the lottery even once. You had to be there to appreciate it!
I’ve been collecting stories, sometimes exaggerated, like this one.
What’s the least probable event you’ve seen?
Not predicted in advance, but Special?
Wasn’t a magnetic monopole supposed to have been detected (possibly) in the late seventies?
Well, I once challenged a friend to open a book to a specific page - which he did. He challenged me to open it to the previous page - which I did. I guess that’s quite unlikely.
I did that hundreds of times at least in school. The teachers were always telling us to do turn to a certain page and most of the class succeeded. I kid but books really do have memories because of the way they are bound. It is way more likely than random chance to open to a page blindly if the page is a popular one.