Michigan’s epic polling fail raises the specter that polls this year can be off and off big.
The following are the current Tuesday’s RCP rolling poll averages (subject to change with more data).
NC Clinton +20.2
FL Clinton +31.5
IL Clinton +30.5
MO Only very old data.
OH Clinton +20
In each case the peaks for 538’s “polling plus” method give Clinton bigger leads.
How will polling do this time?
Personally I am guessing that Florida, being a closed primary, will be pretty spot on. But the others will be smaller than poll prediction Clinton wins, not on the Michigan scale however.