Which recent historical person, if never born, would mean 100% different population in 2016

You could arguably satisfy the OP with a Stanislav-Petrov-esque technicality.

So it sounds like not only just any person could affect everything, but really any action at all. We might all owe our existence to a butterfly who decided to flap its wings at a certain moment.

Tell me about it: Wikihistory | Tor.com

Lucy?

The question as stated seems nonsensical to me in talking about a difference in 100% of the world’s population. One hundred percent? All? Every single human being? And the discussion is about people one or two hundred years ago? Get real. Try one or two million years ago.

Noah as a parable.

Or for a more credible answer - Edward Jenner for his observations and development of the smallpox vaccine. He probably saved more lives than anyone else in history with his work that led to more study and development of modern vaccines.