Which of the five Senators who have not announced their vote will end up supporting Kavenaugh? The Senators that are undecided are Heitkamp, Manchin, Flake, Collins and Murkowski. Vote for the ones you think will support Kavenaugh. Do not vote for the ones you think will not support Kavenaugh.
PTF
I voted for the three Republicans because I know they’ll vote for him. I could have sworn that the red state Democrats said they’d vote no.
There’s been some news reports indicating all of the Senators mentioned except Heitkamp have formed a “suicide pact” to vote the same way on Kavanaugh so that no single Senator can be blamed for being the decisive vote. If this is true, I think it’s more likely than not this group will vote yes and Heitkamp will as well given her polling.
If anyone thinks any Democrat is going to vote for confirmation, they are wrong.
If anyone thinks any Republican is going to vote against confirmation, they are delusional. 
Manchin and Heitkamp voted to confirm Gorsuch, and they represent really conservative states. It’s not unreasonable.
My guess is that both will vote to confirm, but only if all three Republicans in play do so first. In other words, they’ll vote with the majority, whatever that is. I think that Harry Reid once joked about either Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe as “always being there when you don’t need her” and this is the flip side of that.
Thanks for writing my post for me.
Now I’m off to lament the (probable) inevitable elevation of this partisan hack to the Supreme fucking Court.
How would they get to know ahead of time how the R’s voted? Is there a running ongoing tally in the Senate that shows it?
Senate votes are roll call votes, and you can “not respond” the first time your name is called. I think the vote continues until whoever is conducting it (I will assume Vice-President Pence will, since he may be needed as a tiebreaker vote) asks if there are any Senators who haven’t voted yet that want to, or if any want to change their vote. (There was a Senate vote a few years ago that had to be kept open for something like two hours so a Senator with the deciding vote could return from a funeral(!) to cast it.)
Of course, this runs the risk of a group of Senators not voting, and then they get into a bit of a debate over which one of them votes next.
You really think both Manchin and Heitkamp are going to vote No? I think they’ll both vote Yes.
While I checked that they all would vote Yes, I think there’s a chance that Murkowski will vote No, on account of a Kavanaugh opinion about native Hawaiians that would presumably apply to native Alaskans too. If they can afford to lose her vote (which looks like a near-certainty right now), McConnell will give her permission to vote No.
Any red state democrat that votes no on Kavanaugh virtually guarantees a solid GOP senate in November. The races are already very close and just a point shift to the right will seal their fate.
Well, I’m already wrong on Heitkamp - she’s a NO.
Heitkamp is down by 12 points in a recent poll. She is free to vote her conscience without changing the outcome of her election.
It’s possible that voting no on Kav is more likely to propel a Democrat to victory in a red state than voting yes.
If Manchin/Heitkamp et al vote yes, they’ll make their own blue voters unhappy, while their state’s red voters weren’t going to vote for a Democrat anyway.
But if they vote no, they energize their blue base, and the red vote, while pissed, won’t make much of a difference either way.
Yes, red voters won’t vote for a democrat, almost by definition. But a no vote on Kavenaugh will energize repubicans like crazy who otherwise might be complacent and stay home.
By the time I voted, Heitcamp already indicated she’s a no. Manchin remains on the fence, but he’s a big pussy - he’ll vote yes. Flake is running for President in 2020; he’s trying to woo Democrats with his sensitive rhetoric but he’ll vote yes. Murkowski is the only previous yes that I’ve seen wavering at all. I voted that she’s a no, but I’m not too sure about that.
Now, Collins. My senator. This woman has disappointed me so many goddamned times I’ve lost count. My only personal moral victory is that I have never cast a vote for her. If she votes no, I’ll eat my dick. She has been nothing but a solidly reliable rubber stamp for Republicans since the moment she lifted her talons off the bible she swore in on.
In a red state, it might also energize the Dems who normally figure it’s hopeless to vote.
Heitkamp’s been running behind anyway - that down-12 poll is an outlier, I expect, but she’s still easily the most endangered Dem incumbent in the country - and voting Yes wasn’t likely to change the dynamic much. This might. We’ll see.
Sounds risky. A VP could give a 1st roll call vote and then declare the vote complete, without giving the abstaining Senators a 2nd chance.
I was wrong about Manchin, but I called the others right.
I don’t know about the above, but just wanted to go on record as having emailed my Senator and asked him to vote against him.
I told him (paraphrased), “Look, you’re gonna be out of office in a couple months anyway (getting his ass handed to him in November), so why not do the right thing and shoot down Kavanaugh. He’s a disgrace to the Court”
I’m sure it will be little noted nor long regarded. :rolleyes:
But I did it anyway.
Well, I called them - but I’m not sure I would have had I not already been tipped off about Heitcamp.