Around 2000, economists started making predictions for large emerging economies. We were assured China, Brazil, India and Russia had big populations and bigger prospects. And they did well until 2008 or 2011. Then not so good.
With increasing protectionism, would-be left and right wing dictatorships, corruption and red tape, Covid disproportionately affecting poorer countries… emerging economies have their work cut out.
So, which countries are most likely to transform their economy over the next ten years, achieving high rates of growth?
China’s quarterly year-over-year GDP growth just shot up. Meanwhile, its growth has been consistent from 2008 to the present, from a GDP of 34 trilllion yuan in 2009 to 90 trillion yuan in 2018.
Russia’s economic growth went down in 2009, then went back up until 2014, after which it dipped to 2007 levels.
India’s economic growth rate shot up in 2010, then went down to around 5.5 pct in 2012, then back up to 7 pct or better until 2018.
Brazil’s growth rate shot up in 2010 before dropping.
Given that, I think the same BRIC will remain part of the boom, together with South Africa and many among forty emerging markets.
What’s notable is that many of them did well ironically because of protectionism and authoritarian rule coupled with export orientation, leading to industrialization. This shouldn’t be surprising because it’s what led to the East Asian Miracle.
Meanwhile, countries that promoted U.S.-style neoliberalism and liberal democracy, like the Philippines, fared badly, with an ave. growth rate of half or worse than the regional average.
But, now, the country is following its Asian neighbors, with stronger emphasis on state-sponsored capitalism and slowly moving away from U.S. influence, which is why it is now about to join the others.
Kenya. Nobody notices Africa. Africans are ‘primitive’. Africa is my bet, and out of Africa, I pick Kenya. Doing well before COVID, so I expect it to do well after COVID.
Note: Nigeria has been the top African location for running internet scams, (‘419’ is from the Nigerian law), which tells you that Nigeria has the best internet. Ghana is a problem to. But Kenya is growing.
I doubt it happens in the next 10 years, but I feel Ukraine could be a much stronger economy than it is now. It is full of highly educated people and has potential If it weren’t for constant political and military issues I think they would be doing much better.
Which also leads to another issue with the OP of whether we mean absolute or relative growth.
If it’s absolute terms then it will very likely be one of the BRICS (actually China is a dead cert for it, but despite the comment in the OP, I don’t think many would put China in the “struggling economies” bracket, so let’s say BRICS apart from China).
Meanwhile in relative terms, African countries have been occupying most of the top spots for many years now. And don’t get me wrong: I’m not one of those to scoff at relative growth. They are impressive and stable gains in many cases.
Any type of growth is open for discussion. The OP uses the term emerging economies, and never mentioned “struggling”. I do not know if either term correctly described China even twenty years ago if it has 21% of the world’s population.
Which specific African countries should be added to the list? South Africa had some great gains, but also has substantial current problems.
If they can get rid of the worst of the mafia: Italy, Spain, Hungary and Russia. But they probably won’t.
If they manage land reform: Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil and Argentina. But they probably won’t.
If they manage to put up a proper rule of law regime: Mexico and Russia. But they probably won’t.
If they can overcome political divide, ban Facebook and Twitter, expropiate the oligarchs that have abused their legal and financial systems and loopholes, get some sense into their news outlets, and Rupert Murdock finally meets his maker: the USA and the UK. But they probably won’t (with some hope regarding Mr. Murdock, due to his age).
Yeah, and I should be clear when I said “issue” with the OP, I meant potential topic of discussion. I don’t mean that the OP was badly-written or anything.
The aforementioned Kenya, also Rwanda, Ghana, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Senegal were all looking good prior to covid. Since then the picture is a bit more murky but still many such as Ethiopia seem to be growing quickly.
Some north african countries like Morocco and Egypt are doing well too.
Many of these still have high poverty rates and political instability though so are still very much in the struggling bracket.