Which would have been worse: a nuclear war in 1963 or in 1983?

I didn’t want to hijack the Could “civilzation” have survived a global nuclear war?" thread so I’m asking here. The mid 60s and the mid 80s are generally considered two of the most worrisome periods of the Cold War. I was wondering if a nuclear war in one or the other would be significantly worse.

In the 1980s, the sheer number of nukes was much larger, and most of them were missile warheads that for all practical purposes were unstoppable. In 1963 the number of missile warheads was smaller and the missiles themselves were cryogenically fueled (and thus took longer to launch). Much of the nuclear arsenals were still bomber delivered, presumably offering some hope of interception, not only by attack aircraft but also by the still operational Nike defense system. Civil defense was still strong enough that bomb shelters and evacuation plans might have saved many at least in the short run.

On the other hand, by the 1980s warhead accuracy had advanced to the point that “counterforce” was considered a viable scenerio: try to knock out your enemy’s retalitory capacity and hold his cities and population hostage against further reprisals. The warheads themselves had smaller yields because they were more accurate. By contrast, in the 1960s a nuclear exchange would have targeted cities from the start with multi-megaton gravity bombs, especially using the fission-fusion-fission configuration that offers the greatest “bang for the buck” and yielding the most fallout. In fact the war plans of the time expressly counted on fallout as a weapon, with the deliberate intent of exterminating as much of the enemy population as possible and leaving much of the countryside uninhabitable for decades.

In other words, in 1963 both sides would have tried as hard as they could to exterminate the other. By 1983, their capacity to do so was so certain that paradoxically they might not need to. So decade would probably have been worse?

I dunno. As much as advancing technology made it easier to wipe out your enemies nukes, it also made it easier to keep those nukes from getting wiped out. Most obviously, both countries had large fleets of nuclear submarines that were more or less immune, as far as I know, from being hit in a pre-emptive strike. I’m skeptical that either side would’ve been able to wipe out enough of the others arsenal to protect itself.

Interesting question.

My take would have to be that a war in the sixties would have probably been worse than one in the eighties. The reasons that you specified are foremost , but I would probably add that the officer corp would most likely have served in WW2 as lieutenants and captains as well being well aquainted with the depression era.

Basically I think the 63 generation would have been somewhat harder than the 83 era leadership.

Declan

Russia actually had very few weapons in 1963, compared to 1983. As in about 630 strategic weapons, compared to 7200 for the US, and only 104 of them ICBM’s. In 1983 it was 13k for the US vs 10k for the USSR. They then quadrupled their strategic weapon force by 1970, and quadrupled it again by 1980.

So in theory a war in 1963 would be much less messy than in 1983 - for the US. Sort of like saying it would hurt less to fall 10 stories than 100 stories though,

Otara