Whither Canada and the European Union?

Politics & Elections
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The US and Canada economies are so inextricably intertwined that there’s substantial trade even now during the reign of the Orange Peril. The economic reality is that free trade is mutually beneficial and both countries did well during the era of NAFTA and CUSMA/USMCA. I have to believe that the enormous stupidity of Trump and MAGA is an outlier. There are sensible candidates for a Democratic presidency and I think things will gradually return to normal, though it will be a tough slog. So many broken things to fix – physically, economically, and culturally!

My belief is what I said earlier – that it’s mutually beneficial for Canada to form stronger trade ties with the EU and others, and those will just be a plus when trade with the US normalizes again. As disastrous as the Trump regime has been, in the long run it’s just as temporary as the chintzy gild in the Oval Office.

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EU capitals have given a cool reception to Canada’s bid to be granted a “unique alliance” with the bloc, deflating Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pitch for “middle powers” to close ranks against the US and China. Carney, who is visiting France and the UK this week, in an interview with the FT urged Europe to deepen its economic alliance with Canada after previously floating the idea of “associate membership” for his country. But his charm offensive has failed to sway governments wary of giving Ottawa preferential trade access, according to five EU diplomats involved in the talks. Instead, the sceptics have countered that Canada could instead be offered better implementation of existing agreements, the diplomats said. There is also consensus about the bloc intensifying its collaboration with Canadian arms makers and critical mineral mining companies. “We love the Canadians but everyone is very realistic about what’s possible and what’s not,” said one EU diplomat. “Saying ‘everything but membership’ sounds good, but came across as not really thought through,” they added. “But I don’t fault [Carney] for trying.”

EU rebuffs Mark Carney’s ‘unique alliance’ with Canada

https://www.ft.com/content/2e2e0c1e-51d6-49e2-9f4a-6ef793908b85?syn-25a6b1a6=1

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Apparently not everyone agrees on that: European Union: Canada could become first ever ‘associate member’ of EU

44

I have to say, as a British person it would be both awkward and very funny if Canada ends up in the EU while we aren’t.

45

They are looking to swallow up Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland too if just given the chance.

Also von der Leyen might be over promising what the EU can muster. If this is a thing that requires a unanimous vote that’s a lot of vetos.

46

Okay, I am saying this anecdotally, and in the context of the Canada/EU thing. I don’t have cites for it.

Canada, and the world, do not believe this. Trump’s first term? Sure, he was bad, but not the worst president ever (most lists I’ve seen now make hime the worst). A blip in the history of the country.

Then he was elected again. After 4 years of listening to him whine. And, in addition to ripping up trade agreements, it turns out none of the US’s structures…work. The vaunted separation of powers? Just kidding. International treaties? We got a Sharpie right here for your treaties. The Supreme Court? “And you get a Winnebaggo!”. Settled court cases? Just kidding. The enoulments clause, that prevents naked bribery? Where is that Sharpie?

Sure, he’ll die or possibly be voted out. Maybe you’ll get another Obama, or Clinton, or even a Reagan. But the one after that, until those things are fixed, until the world believes the institutions that allowed Trump to exist, threaten 3 countries, rip up trade deals, yada yada yada: until the world sees those things are fixed, the world doesn’t trust the US. We aren’t talking a presidential term any more. We’re talking “need to see structural change”. This is measured in generations, not terms.

Yes, geography has made the US and Canada strong partners. But, look at where Carney is putting Canada’s investments, and gently guiding new investment: pipelines, expanding deep-water harbors, and cutting deals with everyone.

The move won’t be overnight. But the US has been sliding in all the rankings that matter about “who do you make a deal with?”, and Trump is the tipping point that says “not with them.”

Carney’s much-watched Davos speech makes this clear. We’re going to align with middle powers, not the US. Not because of Trump, but because Trump can happen, and is likely to happen again. Elect Newsom, Harris, Walz. It doesn’t tell us a thing, because you might elect MTG after that.

Until the US shows serious reforms, until the US stops sliding in every metric that matters, and keeps doing it, Canada HAS to find new partners. And figure out a way to get them the stuff that we have lots of (including, but not limited to, oil, potash, soybeans, and lumber) to them. This will take time, but the EU is an obvious choice. We’re happy with China and India, who are at least reliable trading partners, but the EU is a more natural fit.

I am not well enough informed about how this stuff works to say where it goes. Quebec hands out 2 (I think they are now 3) year work permits (and you can apply for PR status with 2 years of Canadian work experience) to French speakers like candy; maybe expedited time limited work permits for Canadians to work in the EU. Dropping remaining trade barriers. I am not sure. Canada won’t join the EU, our land border with Europe notwithstanding, but Canada will definitely start cutting deals; ones that are mutually beneficial. And that 68% of our exports? That’s going to change. And it isn’t changing back.

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[deleted on second thoughts]

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The European Economic Area means that Iceland and Norway have to align many of those sorts of things with the EU, without having any sway over them. You’d be looking at an ad hoc, item by item agreement, as Switzerland has.

49

I agree with much of this. You’re basically saying that Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of deep-rooted ills in America. While this is certainly true, the other aspect that’s also true is that he’s a deranged narcissist suffering from increasing dementia, totally unqualified for the office. He’s entirely hell-bent on self-enrichment and willing to throw the whole country under the bus – and other countries as well – in pursuit of that goal. He’s not a normal human being. He’s also ineffably stupid – which is not an insult, just a statement of fact.

I greatly disliked George W Bush but he was just a simple dumbass easily manipulated by ideologues like Cheney. He did genuinely care for his country. Trump is just inherently evil, and it’s a blessing that he’s too stupid to be very effective. His lies are as transparent as those of a six-year-old toddler. I cannot imagine another president – not even JD Vance – who could be as damaging. At least other presidents could be reasoned with.

50

As I have remarked before, the damage being done to America’s reputation as a reliable defence/trade partner is generational, and will not be repaired for many years, and in some cases never.

51

This is a much more positive article than the analysis that was posted earlier. It discusses the possibility of Canada becoming an “associate member” of the EU, a unique position that doesn’t currently exist, and which would open up trade relations much more. Also mentioned: laying more undersea cables to improve communication with Europe, and supplying Europe with Canadian natural gas.

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The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA is a free-trade agreement between Canada and the European Union and its member states…The negotiations were concluded in August 2014… The agreement, being a mixed agreement, is subject to ratification by the EU and all EU member States in order to be fully applied…As of May 2026, only 17 of 27 EU countries have ratified and Cyprus has voted against ratification.

So after 12 years they still couldn’t get this lesser agreement ratified by the parliaments of 10 countries. Thus there is virtually no possibility of a major agreement–only a few minor things here and there.

This whole discussion reminds me of what Teresa May tried to negotiate after Brexit and she proposed a huge laundry list–but the EU responded “no cherry picking”.

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Except the agreement is more or less in force on a provisional basis with France and Italy being the largest hold outs primarily around agriculture. Though some others like Ireland have issues with resolution mechanisms.

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But that’s entirely different. The UK never seemed to have the same attitude about the EU that France and Germany did, and May was trying to negotiate a done deal.

Canada is tempermentally more suited to working with the EU to get a deal, and the fact that it’s an extraordinarily complicated multi-year process doesn’t mean it can’t be done. I do think that minor things here and there is going to be the practical result for the next ten years or so, but over time we’ll see.

55

I read somewhere that 98% of the goods that were covered under CETA are already tariff-free under the provisional arrangement.

56

Does your husband already have their PR? If so, you can move to Montreal right now if you want. As long as you didn’t intend to move to Quebec when you applied you should be good.

57

He has his PR. There are other reasons why we don’t currently intend to move to Quebec, such as that neither of us is fluent in French and we need to find jobs.

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Well, I’m gently saying “you have met the enemy, and they is you.” We know, and knew, Trump was a deranged naricissist. And he was elected. Twice. Yes, that speaks poorly of the, what, 81 million who voted for him? And the ones who didn’t vote.

My broader, and more important, point is: all of the institutions that should have stopped him; Congress; the court system; the Supreme Court; The US Attorneys Offfice; all of them failed. We do not have the luxury of speculation on whether a US President can, unilaterally, using laws no one has heard of before, We do not get to guess if a president can be bribed (what do you call the jet, the tacky cold crap people give him, and the “we’d love to donate to your ballroom” fund if not bribes?).

I’m not going to belabor the point, especially not in this thread. Yes, “Trump supporter” is how you get insulted here, now, apparently “American” not being heavy enough. But, from Canada’s point of view, the US simply cannot be trusted. Not Trump; any President.

The EU looks good in comparison. I don’t know if the OP was asking “how serious is Canada?” or if they were asking “what is this going to look like?” If the later, I expect a reduction in paperwork, ,and probably mutual work visas within a couple of years. I am spitballing on what “closer ties to the EU” would look like. Oh, probably reductions on what it takes to import from Europe, but I’m not in the weeds enough on that to know where the pain port for exporters are. Possibly bringing Canadian food closer in alignment with European health standards. There has been almost endless speculation on this on the news here, but it remains speculation. Hopefully Carney’s talk today sheds light on it.

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I was asking for guesses about how likely it is to happen given political considerations on both sides (Carney seems 1,000% serious but I have only been Canadian since January 2025 and am still getting a feel for Canadian domestic politics). And if it does happen, I am asking for conjectures about what it would look like.

60

By that logic, Hawai’i should not be part of the US of America. Unless Trump rebrands the Pacific as the American Ocean.

To get back to the OP, new full members are required to adopt the Euro. I think that gives up too much sovereignty. This is one of the many obstacles to UK rejoining.