On the 18th September the Scots will decide whether they want to be independent of the UK in a referendum.
The debate is coming to its conclusion and the Scottish public has been very engaged in examining the pros and cons.
If the Scotland decides on independence, the vote Yes. What happens next and what will be the effect?
There has been very little discussion of the practical consequences. Unpicking 300 years of constitution based around integration with the United Kingdom is not going to be easy.
Presumably the 59 Scottish MPs represented in the UK Parliament in Westminster will become redundant before the next General Election on 7th May next year, which will have a big affect both in the rest of the UK and also in Scotland. Each UK party is going to have to develop a policy for dealing with various demands made by a new Scottish government which will be trying to get the best deal it can.
What will be the biggest and most pressing issues if they vote Yes for independence?
Fortunately, every poll indicates they’ll vote No.
The number of issues to be figured out is almost impossible to explain, because issues and problem lie inside issues and problems, and of course you’re not just separating Scotland from the UK, but Scotland from the EU, which it would want to rejoin, and so on and so forth.
The immediate and pressing issue would be what to do about the arrangement of British armed forces in Scotland, as well as what to do with Scots serving in the armed forces. Scotland cannot be said to be an independent nation if does not exercise the monopoly of force within its own territory. This is a huge problem for the UK, for which Scotland is an immensely valuable place to put stuff - most notably its fleet of ballistic missile submarines - as well as Scotland, which needs to come up with a military plan of some kind. Scotland does not presently have a clear idea as to what its national defence policy would be at all; some argue for a force equivalent to a place like Denmark that would be capable of being a contributing members of NATO, while some argue for a more limited force that would largely specialize in civil defense, disaster support, and the like.
Coincidentally a book was just released in Canada concerning the 1995 Quebec separation referendum, which has an in depth analysis of what the various separatist bigwigs planned to do if they won the vote (they narrowly lost.) As it turns out, the truth is they had almost no plan at all. The various leaders did not agree with each other, and in fact were barely speaking to each other, about what they’d do if they won. Literally nobody was thinking of HOW they would affect such a huge change. Scotland’s not much different.
If they vote yes, we should wind the whole British Unionist project up and rebuild what it means to be English & Welsh (Unless they go independent too) My wish would be to wind up the Monarch as well and have a republic.
It would make a nice clean break from the old ‘Britannia’ and a new start for a new kind of republican state to emerge.
I honestly believe that rUK will barely notice. England’s so enormous, demographically and economically compared to Scotland, that even devolution has barely even registered with the central government and civil service.
Scotland leaving the UK would mean relocating the nuclear capability to the rest of the UK. The nuclear warheads at Coulport and the nuclear submarine base at Faslane. That will take years and there are few sites that are suitable. Most of the Royal Navy ships are built in Scotland, so that industry would have to be dismantled and relocated. That will be a huge undertaking and hugely expensive.
Dividing the UK armed forces to create a Scottish Army, Navy and Airforce will be challenging, Scotland would have to develop its own bases and training facilities, most of which are in other parts of the UK. An early question that needs to be answered is the Scottish Defence budget. If that is going to be as low as is suggested (about $2billion a year) it will hardly pay for a few training aircraft and some fishery protection vessels.
A new UK defence strategy will have to be developed and somehow that has to take account of very different policy north of the border, if that is to be determined by the SNP.
Scotland would also have a general election after independence and defence policy would be an important issue. One of many facing a new Scottish government.
However, it is quite possible that a treaty could be negotiated between the UK and Scotland regarding defence. It will be a long game.
I think you’re over-emphasising the importance of the military too much. Even if an independent Scotland aspired to joining Nato it would be bottom of the list when it comes to priorities. It’s not as if Scotland has any enemies on the world stage so I can’t see the likes of Norway using military force to, for example, steal north sea oilfields or whatever. Why would they need an impressive army if they have no interest in imperialism/ being the world’s policeman.
As for the current British army bases in Scotland, they could stay there under licence for the next decade or two until they find replacement barracks south of Hadrians Wall. Or keep them there and charge high rents, it could be a nice money earner for a state that will have to shoulder eye watering sums to create a new independent Scotland. There are still American army bases in Britain, British barracks in Germany. Ireland had a small British military presence after it gained independence (the treaty ports). Current Scottish soldiers can stay in the British army. They admit Gurkhas into the forces- I doubt Westminster or even Salmond will have any issues with Scots enlisting in a ‘foreign’ army.
I hope this sort of petty nationalism does not triumph in the second decade of the 21st Century. The British state has been one of the most successful in history and deserves to continue to exist.
Notice that the poll numbers are tightening:
"Support for Scottish independence has risen by eight points in the last month, in a poll described as a “breakthrough” by yes campaigners.
The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month."
There is a difference between what the British government says now and what it will agree to if the referendum passes–now what the British government says is designed to produce NO votes in the referendum; what it will agree to later depends entirely on what is in the best interest of the British people.
Not much mention has been made (as far as I have read) in the problems endemic in a 50% + 1 independence referendum. If 51% of Northern Ireland voted to cede from Britain the other 49% would rise up with guns & bombs and we could see bloody civil war. That’s not going to happen in Scotland but the outcome of this election is likely to show a Scotland very divided over the independence issue- neither side seems to have a framework for mitigating that division.
Re: Ryan and over centralisation in the UK. The electoral constituencies of Scotland are almost homogeneously Labour, SNP or (possibly) Lib Dem. They’ve had decades of enduring ‘English’ Conservative governments that “Scotland have never voted for”. You would see less enthusiasm for Scottish Independence if the Government in Westminster was left of centre, and with even the centrist/ right of centre Labour party willing to curtail the welfare state if they gain power it’s understandable that Scots are more willing to cut their ties with old Albion. Whether they get any concessions to the left from a SNP run independent Scotland remains to be seen. Ireland in the last century hardly did.
Prior to the current coalition government, the UK had 13 years of Labour government and prominent Scots occupied most of the most powerful political positions in the UK. Not least Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer. Those English governments were largely run by Scots. Ample opportunity roll back Conservative influence? Maybe in a smaller country they will fare better.
I think every frustrated Socialist, Nationalist or Republican in Scotland imagines that their political ambitions will be realised by an independent Scotland. Well, best of luck with that one. I am sure there will be a big debate once all those Scots MPs in Westminster head north.
What effect the loss of these MPs will have on UK politics is a serious concern. Independence does not start the day after the referendum, it is intended to start…2016 according the SNP. So technically Scotland would return at least 40 labour MPs in 2015 in the UK that would no longer be in office in 2016. If Labour win the next UK election, they might find themselves in a minority when those MPs leave, which would trigger another General Election.
Suddenly the West Lothian question become acutely relevant. How can Scots MPs have any say in UK affairs when their tenure will be so short and how to account for the conflicts of interest that are likely to arise during the negotiations between UK and Scotland over separation? UK Scottish MPs will be in some kind of political limbo and presumably they will be keen to pursue political careers in Scotland, which will have its general election in 2016. A significant proportion of the Scottish electorate would have voted against independence, so there is scope for a Unionist Party in Scotland, somewhat like they have in Northern Ireland. The UK could end up dominated by a Conservative Party as a result of the loss of Scottish Labour voters.
Then there is the UK House of Lords and the Scottish peers. Presumably the Scottish Parliament will have an revising chamber?
At the risk of asking a GQ question, to what extent is this referendum binding upon the UK Parliament? What happens if the “Yes” vote passes, and then they just say, “ha ha, no”. In the US, the case of Texas v. White (and more importantly, Grant v. Lee) establish that a state can’t unilaterally decide that they’re going to be independent now. I am interested to know what the differences are over there.
Ah, that commitment applies to the vote that will gauge the will of Scottish people and it will take place during the period of the current elected government. It does not refer to Independence itself, how can it? Independence is as yet undefined. There has to be a constitutional conference and I guess another vote to endorse that.
UK Parliaments are sovereign, governments voted into power can pass any law it wants and any future government has the right to pass law it wants and may repeal any previous law.
However…that is pretty much a technicality. If the Scots vote for Independence, they will get it. It becomes a political imperative, that no UK government would ignore.
What independence means in practice and who is going to pick up the bill. Those issues are undecided and are points for negotiation.
Theoretically it isn’t binding at all - Westminster could dissolve the Scottish Parliament next week if it could get a vote passed. But, that isn’t going to happen. The agreement that Paul refers to that defers the power to hold the indy ref to the Scottish Government is known as the Edinburgh Agreement which uses an instrument known as an Order in Council. The signatories to it, and the implied power behind it, brook no opposition to the result of the referendum.