Says you back. Polling results two years ago were 30/50/20. When The Vow was made. the poll of polls was showing 2% difference 49/51. Actual result 45/55.
Are you just relying on Fleet Street and Broadcast Media for your information?
But something will need to be done to solve the West Lothian Question now it is being asked by ordinary people and not just policy wonks. It is obviously unfair that Scottish MPs make decisions for English only topics.
The problem is that it is a party political issue in that the only party it affects is Labour.
That’s another reason for sorting it out promptly. A party getting excessive representation in England because people elsewhere vote for them isn’t acceptable. It wasn’t acceptable when the Tories were doing it to Scotland (hence devolution), and it’s not acceptable now Labour are doing it to the rest of the UK.
Of course, getting Labour as far away from any form of government as possible is always a good thing, but as I said the principle works either way.
I agree that the West Lothian question needs sorted, but suggestions from backwoods Conservatives that no one representing a Scottish constituency could ever be Prime Minister or Chancellor of the UK shows no conception of real democracy. The fact that the English have resisted English representation is no reason to exclude non- English from UK matters.
I can see a two executive solution with an English First Minister and a UK Prime Minister, with no bar to one person filling both jobs.
The current electoral boundaries favour Labour so much at Westminster that it is bordering on scandalous. The Tories need to win about 2-3% more of the popular vote in England just to return the same number of MP’s as Labour.
Of course an MP representing a Scottish constituency can be Prime Minister or Chancellor. The question is how susceptible would such an MP be to excess criticism, some of justified some of it not. If Michael Forsyth (or the currently labelled English Eton tories) can be given an extremely difficult time by the Scottish press and political class then that nationalist card can be played the opposite way by the English political class. The nationalist genie is hard to put back in the bottle once opened.
That is fair enough, but these Tory idioms are suggesting that only peel resenting English constituencies could be PM or Chancellor. This because their model conflated the roles of First Minister of England with Prime Minister of the UK.
There would be no problem with a Scottish PM in my opinion, as long as they didn’t vote on English issues but only UK ones, and didn’t attempt to influence how English MPs voted on English issues. Whether this would need a separate executive or simply additional English cabinet ministers (analogous to the Scottish Secretary) is another matter.
This might mean having a cabinet minister of a minority party, if for example the Tories have a majority in England but Labour in the UK. I don’t see that as a major problem, though. It would lead to a de facto dual executive without the need for legislation.
There would be no way to stop a Scottish party leader who was PM but not English FM from influencing their English MPs on votes on an English House by, for instance, placing a party whip on them. Same as Cameron having the right to ensure that Scottish MSPs keep in line.
My views changed in the last ten days. From being a No I changed to a Yes on the ground that too many concessions were being offered to Salmond, most of them apparently dreamt up on the back of a fag packet. If we cannot agree then it is better that we should part, and then all promises would have been off.
The concessions were not offered to Salmond but to the Scottish people in exchange for not voting for separation. Salmond was not interested in promises and only wanted Independence. The leaders of the three UK parties in Parliament ensured that Salmond was denied his wishes and now he is gone. The Vow up here is seen as a covenant with the voters who saved the union. Backtracking will be a dangerous game.
So Salmond has effectively got the Devo Max which I said, some months back, that he probably wanted all along.
His goal, as stated in a recent interview, is still Independence eventually. Be has said this may take another generation. Reneging on the vow could shorten this time considerably.
I am personally happy about the proposed outcome as my list was Devo max at the top and Independence second, but Cameron would not allow the Devo max option to go on the ballot paper.
I was also adamantly No early in the campaign. My stance certainly wavered in the last few weeks. I think Westminster politicians will come to regret having promised Devo Max.
The interesting thing is not only did they concede Devo max, but also Barnett which would never have been on offer if Devo max had been on the ballot paper.
8 of 9 polls show “no” at between 50 and 58%. But I am sure your un-named poll is what we should go with. It’s not lamestream media after all, I’m sure.
Sky TV ran a poll of polls in the top left hand corner of the screen for the last three weeks of the campaign. If you had followed this properly you would know that the poll that returned 51/49 YES Was the one that caused the panic intervention by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband and the cancellation of PMQs. During the days that followed the pole of polls showed a two point to four point lead for NO.
Your reference supports what I said.
It supports what I said. No has held steady at about 55%. Fluctuations happen, but this result is similar to the polling 2 years ago.
At the date of the Edinburgh agreement it was 30/58/12. Ten days before the referendum it was 46/47/7. Final result after the panic and the Vow 45/55
Sorry but that is delusional. Before every election, the media breathlessly cherry picks polls which imply that the race is now a dead heat, we swear! Get a load of this poll which had Romney beating Obama in 2012: Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup’s Final Election Survey
The poll you’re referring to might have even backfired, by overstating the strength of the Yes side and thereby encouraging even more No voters to get out and vote.