Whither Scotland?

Great Debates
1121

Well, the over-65s were 488 respondents (out of 2047). And the 55-64 age group were a further 399. So between then, thats 887 out of 2047 respondents, or 43.3%. And the over-65s in particular broke massively for NO - 73:27.

What the Ashdown poll figures suggest is that support for independence peaked at 59% in the 25-34 age bracket, and then declined steadily with age until we reach 43% in the 55-64 bracket. Then it falls off a cliff after age 65.

On the Ashdown figures, if the over-65s had not voted (and every other age bracket had voted exactly as in the survey) the referendum would have been carried 51:49.

1122

As I said above it is a generational thing. I am 64-a boomer. The experience of may gneration differs considerably from those people born before and during the war. People ten to twenty years older than me were schooled in the Depression, the War and the aftermath. They were never teenagers (term became current in the fifties). The start of my generation were teddy boys, rockers, mods, hippies. They were young adults.

So you have a paradigm shift between the two generations- one conservative, respectful of authority, high levels of according to social norms etc. They have the highest percentage voter turnout not because of their age but becauue of their generation. My generation were the first to really rebel seriously and successfully against (or at least aspirationally) against societal norms. We are less likely to vote and more likely to be questioning of authority.

I am particularly aware of this as my in laws are only a decade older than I am and even though they are labour supporters, they are much more respectful, considered and conservative than leftists of my generation.

Putting the two together explains why they have such a major effect on polls such as this one which requires open mindedness and a certain level of risk taking.

In a decade things will be different on that front as boomers are double their number and much less conservative, yet still likely to vote.

1123

Well, worth pointing out that if you look at Ashdown’s data on issues that affected people’s voting decision, the standout concern for the over-65s was the pension. They were also concerned about the NHS and the pound, but not noticeably more so than other age cohorts, whereas on the pension they were much, much more concerned than other age cohorts. (Which perhaps should not surprise us.)

And, of course, we saw earlier in this thread that Scotland does have a bit of an issue here. The UK is facing demographic pressures on the pension system (in brief: projected falling ratio of workers to pensioners) but this issue is signficantly exacerbated if Scotland is viewed in isolation - a purely Scottish pension system will face more demographic pressure, sooner. You could see how that might spook those who are already dependent on the pension. It’s not just reactive conservativism at work.

1124

There is another generational shift here. Boomers are far more likely to have substantial private or State occupational pensions less reliant on economics and politics whereas the previous generation only the better off and state employees had full working life decent pensions and are far more dependent on the State pension.

1125

The Metro Editorial agrees with my analysis:

We might have had a ‘No’ vote in last week’s Scottish independence referendum, but the political crisis which is following it means the nationalists’ cause isn’t dead in the water just yet.

Here’s how it might just happen in eight steps, in a destructive and disastrous process which could have started just a week ago…

Step one: The Westminster leaders, facing the possible break-up of the 307-year-old union, make a last-minute bid for votes by promising a massive transfer of powers from Westminster to Holyrood in the event of a ‘No’ vote.

Step two: After Scotland votes 55-45 in favour of sticking with Britain the entire Conservative party kicks up a stink, complaining that they don’t want to give Scotland more powers without getting more for England too.

Step three: Ed Miliband realises this is a not-very-secret bid to try and gives the Tories more power – because Labour has two-thirds of the Scottish MPs who could be excluded from voting on English-only issues in Westminster.

Step four: Miliband calls for a constitutional convention, to try and kick the issue into the long grass, while Cameron and the Tories insist that it’s only fair the English get to have their say too. The result is a standoff. Both sides are half-right: while the English do deserve more powers, Miliband was right to assume last week’s rushed deal didn’t commit him to this.

This is where we’ve got to right now. It’s far from clear what happens next. One side must back down – but if they don’t, there’s only trouble ahead. I reckon the worst-case scenario might look something like this:

Step five: The political impasse deepens into deadlock. Miliband doesn’t budge because doing so would mean sacrificing any chance of a majority at the next general election. Cameron can’t shift his position either, because of the sheer pressure from Tory MPs.

Step six: The nationalists are enraged – and justifiably so. Alex Salmond’s claim that the ‘vow’ for more Scottish powers was the only reason he lost the referendum seems a fair one. Mass demonstrations take place across Glasgow, which voted to leave the UK. Pressure grows.

Step seven: At May 2016’s Scottish elections, the SNP are elected back into power off the back of a campaign demanding one thing: another referendum.

They’re returned with an increased majority, once again setting up the prospect of the end of the union. The 2014 vote was supposed to settle the matter for a generation – but given the broken promise in Westminster, everyone has to accept the Scottish deserve another chance to have their say.

Step eight: Scottish voters turn out in droves to back ‘Yes’.

Many of the undecideds who felt voting for independence was too much of a gamble decide to back the nationalist cause, precisely because Salmond’s rhetoric about the untrustworthiness of Westminster leaders appears to have come true.

The argument to ‘put Scotland’s future into Scotland’s hands’ becomes irresistible.

Right now, it’s a bit of a nightmare. But given the current crisis it’s not so implausible, is it?

Cameron and Miliband need to find a way to come to their senses and give the Scottish what they pledged.

Anything else is a basic failure of leadership – and a betrayal of all of us that would destroy politicians’ reputation for good.

1126

Ashcroft’s last poll is suspect. He deduced the 16-17 year olds voted ~79-21% in favour of independence. Every reliable poll prior to the referendum had that age range voting to remain with the Union. Of course, if you look at the data, it becomes obvious what is wrong. Only 14 people in that age range were surveyed in his last poll.

1127

On the other hand, if Miliband did block in such a fashion, uncharacteristically robust, I am fairly sure Labour would be roasted alive at the May General Election, and the Tories would then get their way.

1128

I suspect a similar criticism could be made of all the polls. The sample size for these polls is typically in the range 1,000 to 2,000. (Ashcroft’s was 2,047.) Given that, the size of the 16-17 cohort is never going to be very large, and not much confidence can be placed in the conclusions drawn about that cohort. The polls which showed that 16-17 cohort breaking towards NO were not necessarily much more credible than Ashdown’s.

1129

There will be no deadlock. Cameron will have the support of the Lib Dems. Scotland is one of their strongholds, particularly the Orkneys and the Shetland Isles, and they will be looking to both secure their position and claim a significant victory before the next election.

The UK really does need a bold restructuring, but if it happens, it will happen in the next Parliament, not this one.

1130

You guys just had a two year leadup to a referendum that, it seems to me, was pretty exhausting, exciting, and emotionally draining. Are people really going to want to go through all that again any time soon?

1131

One thing I’ve already noticed in the few days after the referendum, is that the Yes side has adopted a Northern Ireland-style obsession with polling and demographic data. Looks like they have an tireless capacity to selectively pick and choose numbers to “prove” that up is down and their side are the real winners. Don’t get involved, it’s a trap! :slight_smile:

1132

Danny Alexander has already put a spoke in Cameron’s wheel.

1133

Maybe the separatists could try an election ploy commonly used in the U.S.

When school districts in my area lose a ballot issue to raise property taxes, they never accept a “No” vote as definitive. Instead, they keep putting the issue on the ballot every six months until their scare tactics work and/or “No” voters get tired of coming out to vote against the measure.

Might be tougher to drain the energy of the “No” voters in Scotland on something as important as staying with the U.K., though.

1134

16-17 year olds can vote?

1135

In the Scottish referendum they could.

1136

In the referendum, yes. I don’t know if this is a permanent change in Scotland.

1137

Ah, okay. Carry on.

1138

Got a link for that? Besides, it’s Clegg who speaks for the Lib Dems, not Alexander.

1139

Prime minister’s bid to outflank Ed Miliband on new constitutional settlement derailed by Danny Alexander’s objections.
An attempt by David Cameron to outflank Labour on a new constitutional settlement for the UK ran into trouble on Sunday night when a senior Liberal Democrat cabinet minister said that the plans for devolution in England should not proceed without attempting a cross-party consensus.

As Downing Street was forced to issue an unequivocal “no ifs, no buts” declaration that the prime minister would deliver further powers to the Scottish parliament, Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury, criticised the Conservatives’ handling of the aftermath of last week’s referendum north of the border.

“It is deeply frustrating that briefings over the last 48 hours have distracted from the crystal-clear commitment of all parties to deliver the change Scotland voted for last week,” Alexander told the Guardian. He is likely to sit on a cabinet committee overseeing devolution.

1140

“Derailed,” though it’s the Guardian’s choice of word, is simply not accurate. Alexander objected to what he alleges Cameron is doing, nothing more.