Who are the 10% of voters who'd normally support a Republican for president, but won't support Trump

I won’t answer for all that fall towards the foreign policy orientation in the GOP but…

First, since the President has stronger powers in relation to war, diplomacy, and negotiating trade, I weight those highest when selecting President. That makes me quite a bit different than most of the electorate.

I generally take a realpolitik approach to issues. Use all means available, (diplomacy, economic, aid packages, and military force) to pursue national interests after looking at the costs and benefits of pursuing a given plan. A lot of the neo-con influence that’s become more dominant among my party’s foreign policy wing tends to ignore second and third order effects of dealing with an initial problem. That skews us away from making optimum decisions since we’re ignoring possible benefits, and especially costs, from the intervention.

Trump is ignorant, apparently willfully, without a diplomatic bone in his body. He’s actively proposing trade protectionism which empties some of the economic tools to pursue foreign policy out of his toolbox.

Clinton is okay for me. She has experience in the trenches with major geopolitcal issues. She understands the methods and knows many current key leaders. Putting together the coalition for Operation Odyssey Dawn (aka Libya) was a nice piece of diplomacy. She still doesn’t seem to have figured out why I ranted at my TV for 20 minutes while proposing “Operation Failed Nation” as the name. IMO her answers with respect to Libya during the campaign show either a lack of understanding of the value of stable nations with respect to our national interests or a failure to see the risks of ending an authoritarian regime without being willing to commit troops to provide security while we try and build a stable government to replace it. Well it could be both. :wink: That worries me. Like the neo-cons she seems to want to apply the military force hammer without understanding all the likely effects. She’s no Elder Bush but she’s a reasonably good fit for my important issue.

To me it seems like he mostly backs into effective positions after the politically acceptable, but unlikely to succeed options, give way to reality. The best argument for him that he’s just doing that to keep from losing political will before he ends up pivoting to what works after the populace has stopped paying attention. It’s probably a whole different thread for why I wish Clinton had gotten the nomination 8 years ago instead of him.

In general, it’s pretty important because their current, and most likely going forward, goals are focusing their populace in nationalist intervention in their historic security zone. That produces instability for our NATO allies even without them being directly targeted. (For example, there’s a pretty big refugee issue due to fighting in the Donbass region of Ukraine even if the news only covers Syrian refugees.)

Agenda is a hard question. Things are going on in all those areas and Africa (which gets a lot of attention). The American public doesn’t pay attention to most of it so it doesn’t make the news or get broad coverage in political discussions. The recently failed peace initiative in Columbia is a prime example. Most probably didn’t pay attention. Fewer would have known there was an active and long term engagement supporting the government’s counterinsurgency efforts going back to shortly after 9-11. I’ve been involved with training National Guardsmen to deploy to the Horn of Africa which included engineer units to dig wells.

Those kind of things don’t make major campaign agendas. It’s hard daily work. Things also change significantly between campaigns. They don’t resonate with voters and it’s hard to draw a lot of distinctions in a 30 second sound bite unless it’s along an interventionist vs non-interventionist line.

I, personally, tend to focus less on agenda specifics for the things that make the campaign coverage. I assess them for judgement and predispositions.

That was Trump level of idiocy IMO. Don’t make a threat when, realistically, there’s no meaningful course of action available to make it credible. He could have at least saved a little face and kept a little bit of teeth in future threats by feeding some Tomahawks into something early. He dithered long enough that Russia managed to diplomatically take even that off the table.

Worse, his campaign demonstrates that he doesn’t listen to experts that can at least help him muddle through the complexities.

Obama has openly admitted that he screwed up on the Syria “line in the sand” by overcommitting to a plan of action he didn’t have full Congressional support for on the assumption Congress would come around. They didn’t, time passed, and he was left looking foolish and ineffectual.

I don’t know if he “admitted” to that or not, but it’s not what happened, according to reporting.

Obama’s “red line” was an off-the-cuff bluff, and when the bluff was called he thought about it more carefully and decided that "dropping bombs on someone to prove that you’re willing to drop bombs on someone is just about the worst reason to use force”. See President Obama’s Interview With Jeffrey Goldberg on Syria and Foreign Policy - The Atlantic

I have misremembered somewhat. It was the support of the UK he was counting on (as pledged by David Cameron) but Cameron couldn’t get it through Parliament (which remembered the last time the US asked for support for a questionable military action) and Obama then had to go to Congress without the international support he’d been hoping for. Discussed with Obama himself (but not currently available for viewing) in “Inside Obama’s White House”.

As of this morning, there is no longer any danger of my “coming home” to the Republicans in 2016, nor that I will pull a Ted Cruz and vote for a guy I swore I’d never support. Nor even that I will close my eyes and think of England (er, the Supreme Court).

I voted today, and I wrote in Evan McMullin*. It won’t matter at all, since Trump will win Texas easily without my vote. But I stlll refuse to have anything to do with him.

  • This is not the same as writing in “Mickey Mouse” or “Dick Hertz.” McMullin is a legitimate write-in candidate in Texas, and this vote will count.

Are we sure that only 15-20% of Republicans are refusing to vote for Trump? My guess is that it’s more likely in the neightborhood of 30%, but Trump is poaching some low-information voters from the Democrats and independents. Angry blue collar workers and such. He’s also locked up the buchananite nativist bunch that sometimes stay home or vote 3rd party.

If the Democrats had run a better candidate than Hillary, I think you would have seen more like 50% of Republicans jumping ship. But hatred of Hillary runs strong on the right.

This election has revealed that the ugly side of the Republican party is certainly larger than I thought it was, but the location of the split is not surprising. I could have predicted the pundits that support Trump vs the ones who don’t with very high accuracy.

A look at where those pundits break down is illuminating:

For Trump:

Sean Hannity
Anne Coulter
Laura Ingraham
Bill O’Reilly
Mike Huckabee

Against Trump:

The entire editorial staff of the National Review
George Will
Charles Krauthammer
David Brooks
Richard Epstein
Jonah Goldberg
Charles Murray
Glenn Beck

With the exception of Beck, I could have put all of those people in the correct category without even knowing what they had said. And the list tells you what you need to know: Trump is the king of talk radio Republicanism. The low information, high anger, highly vocal Republicans. One surprise is that there isn’t quite as much overlap with the Tea Party as you might think - a number of Tea Party Republicans have come out against him.

The people who have the most to answer for are Sean Hannity and Anne Coulter, both of whom have been promoting Trump hard long before anyone else took him seriously. If anyone is responsible for Trump’s rise, it’s those two. After Trump loses, I hope those two poisonous influences are drummed out of the Republican party.

I don’t exactly love Clinton, but I absolutely won’t vote for that idiot Trump so I will be voting for Clinton. I’ve been a Republican all my life and voting that way most of the time too, but the party has been moving further rightward over the years while I’ve moved from conservative to more moderate, and I haven’t been able to stomach them for awhile, especially since the start of the Tea Party. I voted for Obama in his 2nd election. I thought Romney was decent and probably would have made a decent president (similar to George H. W. Bush, not flashy, but competent). But a lot in the party were turning me off with their racism and misogyny so I voted for Obama. This time around, the party has lost me with the ascension of Trump, his alt-right pals and the party leadership failing to stand up against the craziness. Maybe I could have voted for Jeb Bush or someone similar who wasn’t crazy, but too many in the base wanted Trump

I don’t know what the leadership is going to do after the election because there is a large part of the base that is further nuts and racist, and very angry. But I will have nothing to do with it. Of course, if the Democrats go too far to the left, I’m not sure where a moderate like me will be able to stand

I’ve never voted Republican before, but I’m disillusioned enough both with liberalism (on the cultural issues like abortion specifically, but also with the increased tendency towards globalism/internationalism), and with Hillary Clinton’s, um, “muscular” foreign policy in particular, that this is the year I might have voted for a Buchananite / nativist guy who wasn’t as blatantly, well, immoral and probably criminal as trump. On some issues, like Russia, he actually made more sense than any Republican politician in recent history. But at the end of the day he’s, well, Donald Trump.

I’ll be either voting for Jill Stein or writing in Darrell Castle (she’s better on economics, he’s better on social issues, but they’re both acceptable when it comes to foreign policy, which is the most important thing for me), and probably unenthusiastically voting Democrat down-ticket.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but haven’t the bulk of refugees from the Donbass fled either to Russia or to the Ukraine proper, not to western/central Europe?

They have. That doesn’t mean there’s no effects on all the neighboring countries or that it doesn’t add a point of friction between the EU as they’ve bickered about sharing the load. Even the internally displaced persons have effects on neighboring countries (spending to support them closer to home so they don’t become refugees, border security concerns, internal political bickering, etc.)

I hope it’s my aunt and uncle in California. He’s 96, she’s in her 80s, and they’re lifelong Republicans like everyone else on my father’s side. But they are decent people, and I cannot believe they would vote for Trump. We never discuss politics though. (She’s Hispanic on top of that, so I hope that gives her an extra reason for not voting for Trump.)

My governor of Massauchettes , Charlie Baker who is a GOP said he not voting for Trump a few times on TV . :slight_smile: I voted for Barker but I didn’t vote Trump !

Well guys, despite my dad earlier saying that he would vote for me over Donald Trump, he has regressed to the mean, and will regrettably be voting for Le Petite Orange. My father is a single issue voter (abortion), and as a NJ resident, his vote will not likely change any outcomes, but I guess this is an anecdotal sign of why the race tightened.

I foresee this happening on a fairly large scale. Gary Johnson has pretty much cratered. I said it in another thread, I think you’ll have a lot of typical Republican voters hold their nose and pull the lever for Trump even if they’d never admit it. Or some, like your dad, will admit it.

Not saying it will result in a Trump victory. I think Hillary will win. But it might be closer than we thought it would be.

Again. The above is just one possible (likely) source of bias.

Going in the other direction, for example, are reports of canvassers for Hillary talking to the woman of the house, as she quietly expresses her support for Hillary while nervously looking over her shoulder. [i.e. told hubby she’s voting Trump while she actually will vote for Clinton]

You can’t look at just one arrow of that sort and pretend that it is the only arrow.