I have been trying to get a feel for what it must be like for establishment Republicans to suffer the anguish over the probable Trump nomination. It seems to me that no matter what happens that the Republican Party is just not going to be the same after the November election. I’ll lay out the four (or is it six?) scenarios below, so that we could consider what would happen if the Democrats were in this boat. What I wonder is if there is anyone on the Democratic side who could potentially run for president and cause such chaos. I don’t think Sanders comes close. Even under a scenario where Clinton withdraws, whether due to health, scandal, or some other reason, I don’t see Sanders as being unacceptable to a large chunk of establishment Democrats.
Here are the four scenarios, in what I think are the most to least damaging.
- A non-Trump Republican wins a contested convention but looses in November. The Trump voters then likely leave the GOP
- Trump wins the nomination but looses in November. The establishment and Trump voters have a massive fight over who is to blame for the loss.
- Trump wins the nomination and the general election. The establishment looses it’s power, who knows what Trump would actually do.
- A non-Trump wins a contested convention and the general election. Unlikely to happen. I’ll call this one the kick the can down the road option since the Trump people will be upset but have no power left in Washington with which to express that anger.
I mentioned six possible scenarios in case you would like to distinguish between the non-Trump’s who have run vs Romney, Ryan, or someone else who hadn’t run getting the nomination.
Is there anyone that you can think of who could potentially run for president as a Democrat and leave the Democrats in a bind like the Republicans are in, with four all seemingly bad options?