House district 1 is a D+8 and held by a white guy, district 7 is D+11 and held by a black guy. Not sure if it was reserved for him.
Of course winning a statewide election would be difficult. So is winning the Presidency. I want someone running for President to be the kind of extraordinary politician who can win even in a constituency that’s tilted against him.
On the other hand, his unsuccessful Presidential run might boost his name recognition enough for a successful gubernatorial or Senate run. And after a term or three of that, then maybe he would be ready for a real run for the Presidency. He’s young; he’s got time.
I’m very active on Twitter and I’m really impressed by the behavior of the vast majority of Buttigieg supporters. It seems Mayor Pete’s call for decency really is trickling down.
I’m still seeing the same nastiness from Sanders supporters and the small group of Yang supporters is more a cult that has to comment on every political tweet with references to Yang.
Disrespect away. Like father, like daughter, she’s a crank.
Interesting, thanks. Looks like the district that contains South Bend is impossible given that Trump won there by 23 points. And although District 1 looks like it would be fine, that would involve moving—in which case he might as well go to Illinois and run statewide as asahi suggested. I do think it’s a shame to waste his talents, so I would be interested in hearing potential strategies to pull this off without being tagged as a carpetbagger.
Chronos thanks if he’s such a good politician, he can just do it in Indiana. But there are plenty of states where even the most talented Democrats would not be able to win statewide. And Indiana has become one of those.
As far as the US House, Senate and governorships go, successful Indiana Democrats have been Republican light: Evan Bayh, Frank O’Bannon, Pete Visclosky, Joe Donnelly. Donnelly (defeated in 2018 as an incumbent Senator) held H Dist 2 (South Bend) prior to its current occupant. H Dist 2’s borders have since been redrawn, making it very difficult for a D to claim that seat. With this presidential bid giving him name and facial recognition, Mayor Pete could give Rep Walorski a run for her money - she’s really not all that popular. I could also see him doing well running against Governor Holcomb, but not well enough to win.
Personal, O’Donnelly’s loss in a “blue wave” year suggests to me that Indiana has, like Missouri, moved out of reach for Democrats.
Maybe the Ninth District. It includes Bloomington, New Albany, and Jeffersonville. Bloomington in a liberal college town while Democrats can compete in New Albany and Jeffersonville. Currently, a Republican has represented the Ninth, but that has not always been the case.
You sound local but they changed the boundaries after the last census so the historical winners are less meaningful. On the wiki link above, they list the lean of the 9th as R+13.
I don’t disagree that it’s improbable that Pete would win a House seat. He would not win Indiana in the general.
I’m hoping that his alleged “unpopular with people of color” problem is exaggerated and here is someone that agrees with me.
^ A woman of color making the case for Pete. She sees the same things in Pete that I do. He’s calm and smart and kind. A welcome antidote to Trump.
One “people of color” problem that Pete may have is his being gay. This is strictly anecdotal but my own experience is that there are a lot of African Americans and Hispanics who are socially conservative and might have issues with a gay candidate.
My colleague* in Malta says tigiega, plural tigieg is the name for chicken. So the correct meaning of Buttigieg is “papa-chickens” as Gyrate (post 34) almost had it.
*Natalino Fenech, author of Birds of Malta is on facebook. See his superb bird photos
Johanna, you certainly know Maltese is a dying language.
I saw a report yesterday, but now I can’t find it again to cite it, but Pete polled very well in Iowa. He and Warren were almost tied at the top of the list.
Also, Jonathan Capehart was on MSNBC talking about having just returned from his family reunion in South Carolina and he was very surprised at how much his older relatives really like Mayor Pete. I gather they still sort of prefer Biden, but they are not against the idea of Pete.
I couldn’t find that either. But maybe you meant the Monmouth poll where he polled at 8%?
It’s not his highest polling number, but it’s up there. In the same poll, Sanders polled at 9% and Warren at 19% in Iowa.
No, it was a poll that showed Warren at 18. something and Pete at 18. something, but I can’t find it again.
538’s poll roundup doesn’t mention it, so either it’s super recent or not a credible poll. I do note that July 11 poll which somehow has him leading Iowa with 25%, which is…not consistent with other available data.
Ah OK, I think I found it at the Pete subreddit. It’s an Iowa State Fair straw poll.
It has Pete at 17% and Warren at 16%.
It has the Republicans winning 51/49.
It looks like Pete had a great time at the Iowa State Fair. There are pictures of him riding a giant slide, riding the Sky glide and eating a bunch of food.
I’ve been wondering where he’s gone. Had to ride through a wave of negative press following the police incident in South Bend but he’s got a lot of money behind his campaign now.