It’s all about the politics. Although it’d be wildly optimistic to hope that North Carolina (for example) would go Democratic this year, it’s no longer out of the question; that means that the Republican party can’t afford to ignore our state, as it traditionally does. They’ll have to expend resources fighting here that they otherwise could’ve been spending in Florida or Ohio.
More than his regional appeal, however, Edwards brings a populist appeal. Near as I know, he’s the only person on either ticket with a legitimate claim to a working-class background; and he’s spent his life helping poor people out. He’s brilliant at bringing forth the economic concerns of poor people, something that both parties have sucked at doing lately; in recent elections, Republicans have spoken to the religious interests of poor people while ignoring their economic interests, and Democrats have shied away from the economic interests of poor people for fear of the L word. Edwards, I think, speaks straight to those economic interests.
Yeah, I guess what the press thinks of Edwards is not particularly relevant, but there’s a difference between sticking to message and using the same gestures, same jokes, same pauses, to different audiences. Nice article from March in the media-oriented New York Observer:
Snarky editorial from the Observer right before the primary; a bit harsh but basically how I felt at the time:
Anyway, sure I’ll still vote for Kerry; just can’t join in the cheering about his choice. I just hope that Edwards grows into the role. It’ll be fun to watch, esp. the VP debate. Oilman vs. lawyer–who’ll be slicker? Who’ll be sharper? Probably be more fun than the Presidential debates.
Not just poor people, I think. There is a populist argument to be made to the middle class. The Republican tax cuts have the long-term effect of benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the middle class. And there are plenty of members of the middle class who are concerned about lack of health insurance and about the future of Social Security.
I don’t think Edwards will flip any deep south states. I do think he’ll be particularly helpful in the swing states of Florida and West Virginia, though. And I agree with those who’ve said Edwards will be helpful in the Midwest, since he can effectively (more effectively than Kerry, I think) speak to the concerns of middle class voters there.
Moreover, I think this pick is good for the party. Edwards has a future on the national stage, and whether the Kerry-Edwards ticket wins or loses, the added exposure of the VP run will give him a leg up in any future campaign.
I’d call it optimistic, but not wildly so. I’d put Bush as somewhere between a 3-2 favorite and a 2-1 favorite to win NC. ‘Wildly optimistic’ would characterize hoping the Dems pick up SC, but I wouldn’t put even that completely out of reach: even now, Bush’s lead in SC has only been running at about 49-39, because SC’s really been hammered by jobs headed overseas. Having Edwards on the ticket will cut into that lead, and I expect he’ll be in the state periodically to campaign for Inez Tenenbaum. (He’ll be in NC campaigning for Erskine Bowles too, but he’d be there anyway.)
And that’s one place where Edwards’ nomination is big: the Dems are defending five open seats in the South, and Edwards can boost the chances of the Dem nominees by campaigning with them. That wasn’t true for Kerry.
You betcha. And this is big.
Prediction: Kerry/Edwards over Bush/Cheney, 56%-44%.
Predicting 56% of the electoral vote would be saying nothing. Kennedy in 1960, Nixon in 1968, and Carter in 1976 all got 55-56% of the electoral vote, despite very narrow popular vote wins. What’s rare is for the winner to have less than that - before 2000, you’ve got to go back to 1916 to find an election where the winner had less than 55% of the electoral vote.
I think the bottom has been ready to fall out of the Bush campaign for awhile; the only requirement was a strong Dem ticket with a strong message. As the email that Desmostylus posted shows, Kerry’s bought into the “Two Americas” message. That’s the key.
I think this is going to be a big win, a win with coattails, a win that neither Diebold nor the EC can undo.
