Sorry in advance for the hijack. And Williams is in no way in the LeBeau/Kotite/Morninwheg league of futility, but I still needed to respond.
Yes, I would have been somewhat happy with 8-8 at the beginning of the season. I mean, hey, at least it brings my Bills back from 3-13 to respectability. However, when they were sitting at 5-3, I was honestly expecting playoffs. Or at least having a good run in the AFC East.
As Neurotik pointed out, Bledsoe, Henry, Moulds and Price all had superb seasons, probably due to an improved offensive line. Granted, the defense was pretty young and sucked against the run, but I think that can more-than partially be attributed to the “46” defense, which is designed to maximize forced turnovers by taking risks. Unfortunately, it also relies on having a superlatively talented defensive unit. With a defense as unproven as the Bills’, the “46” failed miserably:
[ul][li]Ranked DFL in takeaways with only 19. [/li][li]Ranked DFL in penalty yardage with 1053 (they were the only team to crack a thousand yards in defensive penalties. Granted, this isn’t a consequence of the defensive scheme, but it belies a lack of discipline instilled by the coaching staff).[/li][li]6th to last in points allowed. This shows me that instead of creating turnovers, the risks that this defensive scheme employed created points for the other team.[/li][/ul]Now for the offense. I believe that Williams relied to heavily on the pass (you’ve got 1st and goal at the 1, I don’t want to see 3 incomplete passes followed by a field goal. Or worse yet, 2 incomplete passes followed by a momentum-killing pick). He had the talented Travis Henry and a line that could run block. Granted, Henry got his touches (a little over 20 carries per game), but in critical situations, when you need to grind out a 2 or 3 yards on the ground, I don’t think that Williams went to him enough.
Finally, Williams’ propensity for not taking chances really irked me. 4th and 2 on the opponent’s 32. Down by 10. What do you do? Kick a field goal to make it a 1 TD game? Nah. Go for it because you have enough confidence in your offense to get you two yards? Nah. Punt the ball to the 17, thus allowing your opponents to march down the field and score on your mediocre-to-poor defense? Ding ding ding! We have a “winner.” Is it really any surprise that the team “responded” to Williams’ lack of confidence by losing that game and the two games after, killing most realistic chances of making the playoffs? I don’t think so.
I’m certainly not calling for Williams’ to be fired. A 5 game improvement is something to be proud of. If only he changed some of his play calls, instilled some discipline (the special teams play was particularly undisciplined at the beginning of the season), and changed to a more reliable defensive scheme, I think the Bills would have been a playoff team this year. And if my Bills keep their core, they can probably be a playoff team again next year.