Satellite delay (or any other kind of inevitable communications lag) would make true telepresence unworkable, but semi-autonomous control might work - the kind of thing they have on the Mars probes - the human operator tells the remote to *go over there and pick that object up, the remote has sufficiently competent programming to be able to just do it. Actually - that’s not terribly different from how our own bodies work - we don’t think about where we put each individual foot most of the time, we just walk.
Having said that, I don’t see it happening as you describe any time soon, mostly because I don’t think there’s a big demand for it and at the moment, I think the development costs would be unjustifiable in any commercial enterprise.
Also, there are still security and safety concerns - a telepresence worker could still steal from you by gaining access to your credit cards or other secure information you store in your house, and (although admittedly unlikely) if the operator decided to attack you or damage something, this would be impossible to guard against.
Is it just me or does anyone else actually want the robots to attack? I would so humiliate them by destroying them with something so technologically unadvanced as the humble stick. “Take that Chef-o-Matic! What, did you think I wouldn’t notice you were gradualy increasing my salt intake? Let me give you a little advice, I don’t own a Shop-o-Matic, I do my own shopping, so when I find myself having to buy a kilo of salt every day for the past month didn’t it ever occur to you that I would rumble your game?” The idiot!
I don’t think lag would be a serious problem at all. I know many many people who play sophisticated fast action multiplayer games online with people all over the world. While they do complain about lag sometimes it certainly doesn’t stop them from playing. I don’t think communications lag would bother an operator in China from vacuuming your floor satifisfactorily at all, especially with some well written software as you describe. As for the lack of demand, well… I also disagree. I think if you offered domestic services at a reasonable rate where people didn’t have to deal with hiring or actually see another human being in their home with them it’d be huge. The development costs would be trivial for creating an entire new industry of ‘must have’ durable consumer goods from services, to varieties of robots to software upgrades. I didn’t say there would be NO security concerns but there would certainly not be any more concern than having an actual Person helping you in your home and IMO in all likelyhood much Less capability for serious breaches of security. A robot that has a ‘safety word’ verbal command to shut it off is not going to be able to attack you very effectively, especially if it’s designed to lift nothing heavier than a jug of milk. Keep your credit cards on your person or locked away when it’s active. I just don’t see any areas for additional concern.
I gave it more thought and realized that if the robots were cheap enough you could have a system where you just buy yours outright and subscribe to services as needed. I might not need my robot to clean for me but I could go online and sign up to have an experienced cook make my meals as needed, or watch my kid. We live in a world where there was serious thought to outsourcing drive through window orders to a call center overseas… I think if robots do take off this is how it will work at first.
The lag experienced by FPS gamers is probably not an adequate thing to compare - the information being exchanged to control an avatar in a game is a very small compared with the information that would be required to control a telepresence robot in a much more complex real-world environment.
But anyway… hmmm… I guess I just don’t quite share your optimism that something like this is around any corners. It might be more likely to happen as a spin-off from some kind of telepresence R&D in the space industry, bomb disposal services or the military.
Meh. I’m sure this sounded totally plausible in the late fifties, when Robert Silverberg wrote “The Iron Chancellor,” but now that we have some experience with higher technology, it should be pretty clear that the worst we can expect is thousands of people simultaneously bitching because a convenience they’ve grown used to is temporarily unavailable.
“‘ERR#101 - EP OWRITE ROM’ - What the fuck does that even mean?”
Actually I think it’s more likely to be the medical industry (though military is a good bet too). There is alot of research going on to develop remote robotic surgery. I think they’ve even done some simple procedures as a proof of concept.
The Roomba may not suck, but it certainly cleans the carpet. Ours definitely picks up as much dirt and cat fur as our large Eureka upright.
Reminds me of one of those Get Smart episodes with Hymie the robot, who said at one point the only interesting conversation he’d had all day was with the office coffeemaker.
Roomba
I don’t consider a Roomba a real “robot”. It’s a randomly moving remote controlled car. When a Roomba attempts to avoid my swift kick then I will consider it a robot.
I wonder if “robot” will always connote “something more complex and humanlike than what we have now” to most consumers, while being widely regarded by engineers and programmers as what we have right now.
Robot Definitions:
A robot is a mechatronic construction, that is, a construction of mechanical, electrical, and electronic components, which is capable of autonomous or semi-autonomous operation towards a function or goal specified by the builder or programmer.
A robot is a machine that was designed and programmed to perform a specific set of tasks without human interaction beyond programming updates and maintenance.
A robot is a machine that performs a function, either to aide in everyday life or simply to entertain. A robot needs to be able to accept inputs or commands and interpret that input to produce a desired output.
Robot wiki:
A robot is an electro-mechanical or bio-mechanical device or group of devices that can perform autonomous or preprogrammed tasks. A telerobot may act under the direct control of a human, such as the robotic arm on a space shuttle, or autonomously under the control of a programmed computer.
The Encyclopaedia Galactica:
A mechanical apparatus designed to do the work of a man.
the marketing division of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation:
“Your Plastic Pal Who’s Fun To Be With.”
So yes, the Roomba is a robot. A programmable bread machine is a robot. A welding machine on an automobile assembly line is a robot. Very simple, very limited robots, but robots nonetheless. Computerized machines with movable parts designed to do the work of a human being.
Thing is, we already have flying machines that you could use to get to work. The only trouble is that they’re expensive, dangerous, noisy, and require pilot training. But if you want a helicopter to take you to work you can buy one today.
Same thing with “robots”. Automatic dishwashers, clothes washing machines, dryers, self-guided vacuum cleaners and other “smart” applicances will make taking care of the house easier. But almost nobody will have an anthropomorphic robot designed to use human tools and take the place of a human servant. Your robot won’t get out the vacuum cleaner and run the vacuum, rather the vacuum cleaner will run itself. Your robot won’t drive a car for you, rather your car will drive itself. And so on.
And if we ever develop strong artificial intelligence so that you could have a conversation in plain english with a robot, well, the world will be so transformed by strong AI that predictions like a robot vacuum cleaner will seem as quaint as the idea of a robot footman for a horsedrawn carriage.
