Counting three H of R terms as one complete Senate term, do Senators have more or less turnover than Reps? (Don’t get into oddball cases where someone serves non-consecutive terms, and don’t get into the commonality of Senators beginning their careers as Representatives.) In general, is a career in the Senate longer or shorter than the average career in the house? If I had to guess, I’d say the H of R term is longer because a district is more reliably partisan than a whole state, and because while Reps often move up to the Senate, they tend to get elected for the first time at a younger age, so longer careers are likelier, but does anyone have handy something that is better that my WAG?
There’s obviously a factual answer to this question, but I’ll WAG senators.
Although senators get more opposition when they run every 6 years, and although many congress-critters are entrenched and live in areas that are heavily one party or the other, I think the redistricting that happens every ten years tips the balance toward senators.
At least for the current Congress, there’s a specific answer:
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41647.pdf - note: PDF
The 112th Congress is the one elected in 2010, not the incoming one. I don’t know how these numbers compare to congresses during more stable times; obviously the big swing in the 2010 elections would push the average term of the representatives down somewhat.