If the vacancy is created during Bush’s term, my money is on one of the judges from the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals here in Richmond. It is easily the most conservative of the circuits, and Bush won’t have to contend with the anit-Thomas and anti-Scalia filibusters that are sure to take place in the Senate.
That is a perfectly logical, sensible idea. It is therefore entirely unfit for government. 
Here is my prediction.
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Bush will be re-elected.
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The left, extremely bitter at Bush’s reelection, will try to make appointing any justice to the right of Thurgood Marshall as agonizing an ordeal as possible.
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Bush will nominate at least one and possibly two red herrings that he knows have no chance of confirmation and watch the water turn red. (That’s what I would do, at least.)
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Bush will follow up with someone who is moderate right, Hispanic and possibly female. Senate Democrats will confirm her because they won’t want to appear to moderates as obstructionists who can never be satisfied.
Well, if you want my opinion on an educated, internationally known person of great intelligence and personal charm who has spent a lot of time thinking and working for the common good…
How about Jimmy Carter? Seriously, it popped into my head. I don’t think Bush would appoint him, of course, but Kerry might. I think he’d do a better job than he did as President.
Oh I don’t know. The Court can be, and has been sometimes, quite divided over constitutional interpretation. Why add an internal political fight over the Chief’s job? If some justice is going to have his or her nose out of joint over not being named Chief, let it be the President who takes the heat.
Why would you need an internationally known individual? Besides, Carter turns 80 this year, the same day Rehnquist does. Stevens is 84. How old was the oldest appointed Supreme?
First off, I think Carter’s intelligence and charm are both pretty overrated. He’s known to be prickly, and his presidential term wasn’t marked by competent administration or inspiring, great ideas.
Secondly, Jimmy Carter turns 80 this year. I think Kerry (should it come to pass)would want to appoint someone who would have a long Court tenure, not a transient one.
Lastly, Jimmy Carter’s lots of things, but he’s not a jurist. In his long political career, he hasn’t ever sat on a bench. In fact, he’s not even a lawyer. He’s an engineer and farmer by training and occupation.
That all adds up to a long shot for a Carter appointment.
I missed this. Is he sick?
Is there any precedent for this? A Supreme Court justice resigning for political reasons, or out of political frustration? Has a SC justice ever resigned for any reason but old age?
While a good bit of it was due to his advancing age and health reasons, Thurgood Marshall was quite open about his political frustration during his later years on the court. He is quoted as often saying to his clerks, “My vote doesn’t even count anymore. I don’t want to fight these battles anymore, why don’t you do it for me?”
To say that he was less then pleased with Bush Sr’s choice of Clarence Thomas is an understatement.
The Chief’s additional duties amount to more headaches without any additional power. Deciding who would be Chief is a little like deciding who’s going to wash the dishes.
Really, what genuine additional power does the Chief hold? Unless there’s another trial following impeachment of a president, not a hell of a lot (and even presiding over trial in the Senate isn’t a lot of power, since the Senators can make the trial rules up as they go along).
Yeah, but the CJ gets to wear that nifty robe with the stripes on it (thanks to Rehnquist, who had it designed for him after he saw one in a Gilbert and Sullivan operetta).
Huh?
First of all, the 4th may be a conservative Circuit, but I doubt it’s more conservative than the 5th, and it’s certainly not “easily” more conservative.
Second, why wouldn’t Bush have to deal with filibusters if he nominates someone from the 4th? As far as I know, there is no special provision that mandates a smooth nomination process if the nominee is from Virginia. I’m pretty sure the same Senate still needs to approve the nomination by the same methods. In fact, the source of the opposition is not related to geography, but ideology, so it would probably prove just as tough for a conservative from the 4th Circuit as a conservative from the 9th Circuit.
Could you explain, please?
Sure. The first Chief Justice, John Jay was appointed to the Court in 1789 and resigned in 1795 to become Governor of New York. Most recently, in the 1960s Arthur Goldberg and Abe Fortas each resigned from the Court after three years of service. Goldberg was appointed U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. and Fortas went into private practice. There have been quite a few others others in between.
Tom C. Clark (a graduate of my law school alma mater) resigned from the Supreme Court when his son, Ramsey Clark, was appointed Attorney General in order to avoid conflicts of interest.
Clearly Justice Kennedy will be the next Chief Justice, he’s a swing voter and respected consensus builder.
Actually, I’ll quibble with you. Justice Clark did not resign, but retired at age 67 after 18 years on the Court. After his retirement he served as chairman of the Federal Judicial Center and by designation on circuit courts. If he had resigned, he could not have continued in judicial service.
There’s more precedent to nominating the next CJ from outside the ranks of the Associate Justices, so if I had to bet I would put money on someone besides the eight associates.
My personal hope is that Kerry wins, and that to prevent Hillary Clinton from running for President in the future, names her as Chief Justice.
I doubt she’d want that particular job. At any rate, she isn’t well qualified for it, not having any judicial experience at all.
It would be a good reason for the Republicans to vote against her.
While the 4th and 5th Circuits are both very conservative, my impression has been that the 4th Circuit is more activist in its conservatism, i.e., more likely to actively reject Supreme Court precedent that it disagrees with. A good example of that would be the case a few years back where the court decided that Congress could override Miranda by simply passing a statue.
I suspect that, if Bush is still around to pick the next Chief Justice, it will be somebody from either the 4th or 5th Circuits. Possibly the 5th Circuit’s Edith Jones (“Sleeping through a capital murder trial is not ineffective assistance of counsel”), who is both female and ultraconservative. We could also see somebody off a state court bench (as O’Connor and Souter were before joining the Court) or–less likely, given Bush’s disdain for all things intellectual–academia.
There are a whole lot of candidates in the selection pool, however. Trying to predict who might ultimately get the nod is pretty pointless at this point.