Rhenquist will probably not be able to keep his duties for much longer. From the current court, I think Ruth Bader Ginsberg is probably the most qualified to be the next Chief Justice. Sandra Day O’Connor would be an interesting choice. However, age would probably disqualify her.
Earl Warren was governor of California before becoming Chief Justice on a recess appointment. He was later confirmed by the Senate.
Warren had never been a judge before becoming Chief Justice.
Any sitting member of the court who was named Chief would be filibustered. Unless Bush wanted to start the mother of all political battles, Scalia and Thomas will be Associates until they die or leave the court.
An aside, I hear rumors Scalia is considering leaving the court because he’s realizing his ‘conservative’ views of the law’s role and government are never going to command a majority.
If the Court opens up on Bush’s watch, Bush has every reason to nominate Scalia – he’d be very pleasing to social conservatives, an easy sop to their feelings while not directly offending the fiscal conservatives.
The Chief Justiceship is more of an honorary title than anything else – he controls some of the court’s administrative functions, and ostensibly assigns authorship for opinion-writing when he is part of the majority, but there’s no significant real additional power to the position that an ordinary Justice does not already possess.
Given history, it’s likely that if Rhenquist steps down, an entirely new person will be appointed Chief.
The only candidate on the current court I see is Scalia, and that only as a way to honor his long service on the bench (and his ideological closeness to Bush), which is much the same reason Reagan gave the title to Rhenquist. But even that is unlikely to happen; Bush critics, having already demonized Scalia to the nth degree, would seize on such a move as “further radicalizing the court” (even though it would not actually change the balance of power in any way), and really, Bush doesn’t need that kind of a hassle. Political expediency will make it far easier to just find a new person.
Gotta admit I’ve always found that weird. Just appointing a chief justice from outside the current group. I always thought it would make more sense to let the justices pick the chief justice and allow the president to nominate the associate judges when opening occur.