I was thinking about this today, the Catholic Church has a long history, which papal election had the most unexpected result? Only actually verified historical persons and not figures like Pope Joan if possible.
Thanks in advance 
Since “surprising” is a matter of opinion, let’s move this to IMHO.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
Over the last couple of centuries, John Paul II was probably the biggest surprise to many. His predecessor had died after only a month, but JPII was elected pretty quickly (in just three days.) He was a dark horse who was suggested as a compromise for the conservative and moderate wings. The first non-Italian pope in 450 years, first pope from a Communist country, and a few other distinctions.
John XXIII was not such a surprise choice, but was expected to be a caretaker pontiff due to his age. It was his activism after he assumed the papacy that surprised people.
Celestine V has got to be near the top of the list.
Pope Clement VII was a surprise. Probably especially to Pope Urban VI, who was still alive.
Some of the Cardinals had decided they made a mistake electing Urban and his election didn’t count because it had been done under duress (Roman rioters were threatening them if they didn’t choose an Italian). So a group of Cardinals decided to revoke Urban’s papacy and elected a new Pope.
Urban, not surprisingly, didn’t agree with this plan and insisted he was still Pope. Clement disagreed and said he was the real Pope. So Europe ended up with two Popes. Each man had his own papal court and successors were elected to continue both lines. It would be thirty-two years before the church was mostly reunited under a single Pope.
This wasn’t that big a surprise in retrospect. The College of Cardinals had been predominantly Italian so Popes, who were chosen from among their number, were generally Italian.
But Pius XII and Paul VI had both wanted to diversify and had named a lot of cardinals from outside of Italy. By 1978, around three quarters of the cardinals were non-Italian so there were plenty of non-Italian candidates (and plenty of non-Italians casting votes).
Came in to say him. Also old Formosus was probably not expected to sit on a throne AGAIN…
Wikipedia says that Leo XII, Gregory XVI, Pius X and XI, John XXIII, and both John Pauls were surprising. The earliest is 1823, so presumably this is not counting earlier Popes.
I don’t really know, but, based on what I know about John Paul I, I would have to say he was a big surprise. He seemed to understand the everyday Catholic and I don’t know if it’s true, but if he had been given the time, he may have walked back Pope Paul’s Humana Vitae. While pope, he started having the Vatican Bank investigated which had to ruffle quite a few feathers. The way the Catholic Church is steeped in tradition and takes hundreds of years to change anything, if anyone in the College of Cardinals was aware of his thinking, then I’d say he was a surprising choice. They also love to coverup their scandals. After all, it’s about the politics more so than spirituality imo. That said, from a spiritual standpoint I think he was a great choice and I think if given time would’ve made a great pope, I’m just not sure how he ended up being elected in the political world of the Vatican.
Thanks for the answers everyone, I’ve looked up those mentioned on wikipedia for some further reading.
I was actually born halfway through Pope John Paul I’st short reign and was named after him (Paula not Albino to preempt the comedians). Strange to think that he was only 65 when he died and Pope Francis is still going strong and active at 80.
I would say the most surprising development was Francis. … specifically, that Benedict decided that the church could no longer tolerate being dormant for a decade or two while the current pope declined in serious old age. Changing the church tradition to one where the pope retired and made way for a new one was probably the biggest change since the reformation…
Popes have retired before, e.g. the aforementioned Celestine V. It just has been a long time.
Francis is the first New World Pope, as well as the first to pick a unique name since 913 (if you don’t count the John Pauls). The last one was Pope Lando (Billy Dee Williams is still around if they want to make a II).
Francis was surprising in some ways. First, the retirement of Benedict was a surprise.
And the election of a Latin American was a surprise.
And, especially, the election of a Jesuit was a real surprise. That’s unprecedented. The relationship between the Society of Jesus, on the one hand, and the Curia and the College of Cardinals, and even the Papacy, has been strained as often (or more often) than not.