If an individual falls into both categories, well then I guess that would be a tie; but barring that scenario, which event do you think would happen first?
(I didn’t know if this question should go into Great Debates) 
By “minority” I mean the definition that most americans understand when talking about politics and social issues in the U.S.
I suspect we’ll see a woman President of the United States before we see a non-Anglo POTUS. Strictly IMO.
I would bet that it will be a minority first. Remember that Colin Powell was polling very high as a potential presidential candidate more than 4 years ago before he insisted that he never wanted to run. Also, a republican hispanic male (although none come immediately to mind) would not too much of a problem.
Here’s my guess:
We’ll see a minority male first, especially if the minority is one that looks ‘white’.
For example, a minority that looks like Mexico’s President would be a president before a woman will.
If you consider Jews an ethnic group, I think we’ll have a minority president first. Otherwise, I really don’t know… if I had to pick, I’d say a woman first, then way down the road, a bllack man. Couldn’t tell you how likely a Hispanic or Asian president would be.
I’d say it depends on whether Hillary Clinton or Barak Obama wins the nomination in 2012.
Hispanic Republican guy…
or Chelsea 
It will be a black, male Republican.
Well, if Nader wins and then gets hit by a piece of falling space shuttle, it’ll be a minority.
How about Condoleezza Rice?
You CAN have it all!
Other than having a woman VP who subsequently takes over the presidency, I doubt we’ll see one in office before a man of ethnic heritage. The way I see it, a woman would never be nominated due to the potential harm to international diplomacy, at least while we’re so dependent on Saudi oil.
In all honesty, I think it’s a toss-up. Ethnic male (probably Hispanic) may have a slight edge.
Or if he wins, and then doesn’t. Nader’s an Arab. That counts as a minority, doesn’t it?
I don’t think it counts if most of the country doesn’t KNOW he’s a minority, though. (Of course, if Nader were a serious contender, I’m sure more people would be made aware that his parents came from Lebanon.)
**Who will be U.S. president first? A woman or a “minority”?
**
A person can be a woman and a racial/ethnic minority. White females are nice and all, but they do not own the word “woman”.
That said, I think a man of any race has a better chance at the office than a woman. I think the first non-“white male” prez would have to be 1) Christian, 2)conservative (no Civil Rights past), and 3) go above and beyond all qualifications. No black Dubyas allowed (because he will have to speak so well). He will have to demonstrate an impeccable educational background (no signs of Affirmative Action) and solid leadership qualities (esp. military). It will also help if he’s light-skinned and easily mistaken for white.
I just described Colin Powell.
Two questions
Monstro, how in the world could Colin Powell be easily mistaken for white?
Why does everybody agree that a minority candidate would have to be conservative? Going with Colin Powell again, he seems mostly moderate, I mean, yeah, he sides himself with republicans, but republican doesn’t neccissarrilly equal conservative. Also, as far a women are concerned, Hillary Clinton would probably have won had she decided to run, and she’s far from conservative.
And as for who would be first, well, I’d love to see a minority woman win (as long as I agreed with her political beliefs), but in an either/or situation, I’d probably say a woman would win first. She’ll probably have to be first lady, like Hillary, or a VP first, like was tried with Geraldine Ferraro, and then, after that, run for office.
A Republican at work had a discussion with me about his theory that the Clintons are trying to ensure Kerry doesn’t win. (I think his theory is bogus.)
He claims that they are positioning Hillary to run and she would have run this time had she known the swing against Bush would be so strong.
I think if Hillary were running for President today, it would be about the same as Kerry - meaning, I think she could win, and would win.
So - I don’t see being a woman being a minus in an election, but it depends on the woman and I think Hillary could pull it off.
That said, I think Colin could also have run, and still run, a serious campaign. Even someone like me, a rabid Democrat, would not feel the need to open a vein if Colin won.
In other words, there are candidates who fall in both of your catagories who could win the election. It is a matter of time, and timing.
One thing to remember about Powel, one of the main reasons he seemed like he would make a great candidate is because of the mysteries surrounding him. Nobody really knows where he stands on major issues. If he would have ran, once he told people where he stood, it might have hurt him, maybe not, but that’s just it, nobody really knows.
A month ago I was convinced it would be a Republican woman.
Now I’m convinced it’s going to be Barack Obama.
I think that Harold Ford, Jr. (D. - TN) will be the first non-white President and that he will hold the office before a woman. Watch for him to move up to the Senate from the House first.
I’m picking a Black before a woman based on the slight edge that Black males have over white women in salaries. ( 2 cents on the dollar more) Also, he is so fine!