Who Will Call the Election for Biden/Trump First?

Currently, FOX has Biden at 264 to Trump’s 214. MSNBC 253/214. CNN 237/213.



Biden goes up to a 12,000 lead in Nevada. It’s starting to look very good for him. I wonder how wide the lead has to get for FOX to call it for him. Oh, how I want FOX to be the first of the big 3 cable news channels to do so!

The NY Times also has 253/214. Fox has called Arizona which the others haven’t. I don’t understand why the remaining states don’t seem to be updating regularly. Arizona first said they would give an update last night at 9 (all times EST), then put it off till 1 AM this morning, then put it off to 1 PM today and then to 9PM tonight. Surely they have interesting intermediate totals. PA has gone from 91% counted to 92% counted since last night. At this rate they might finish by next March.

There were Maricopa county updates at 9PM last night and 1AM this morning. Next update is scheduled for 9PM tonight.

FOX won’t call Nevada until there is more certainty in AZ (AZ is going to be really close, I fear). If they call Nevada, they call the election for Biden (unless they retract their call in AZ first).

If Georgia flips to Biden (at this point Biden needs to win >63% of the remaining ballots, I think he might fall a bit short) then some might call Nevada and Georgia and thus the election.

Once Biden (hopefully) passes Trump in PA I think everyone will call PA and the election for Biden.

Big three? Who got demoted? :smile:

You tell me. :smiley: I’m thinking of Fox, MSNBC, and CNN.

wierdly enough, I think Fox might call it first. They have a real pro running their elections group. He called Arizona on election night for Biden. And even Jared calling Rupert Murdoch didn’t change the call.

Nor, IIRC, when Karl Rove tried the same stunt on live TV a cycle or two back.

Biden has almost certainly won Nevada but Arizona is still close and should never have been called.

That puts Fox in a tricky position. They probably regret calling Arizona but don’t want to back down. However if they really believe in their Arizona call they should be calling the election for Biden when they are sure of Nevada which should be anytime now. They will probably put off their Nevada call for as long as possible to avoid being the first to call the election for Biden.

None of this matters much because Biden has almost certainly won PA also. Maybe the networks and Fox will wait for that call before calling the election.

Pre-cable, the big three were ABC, NBC, and CBS. Since not everyone has cable, almost everyone has access to those three plus Fox as broadcast channels. But, with streaming and cable I guess that’s a dated perspective.

I guess I’m the odd one here but the only one I’m really watching is the AP.

We will find out soon: non-networks are starting to call it, with Decision Desk HQ being the first that I know of:

Well, I did say “cable news”, but I hear ya. I don’t know about you, but I remember when ABC, NBC, and CBS were not the “big three”, they were the only three!

As you remember this, would you also perhaps remember a presidential election when Megyn Kelly was still with Fox, and she got up for some reason and walked back to the “control room” where the vote statisticians were sitting?

At this time, Biden is ahead in PA by nearly 7000 votes. I saw a prediction that the final margin would be 150,000. I don’t know if anyone has called it, but I don’t know why not. I will guess that AP goes first since they have already called AZ.

D’oh! I totally missed “cable”. Never mind.

Not saying they are shady, but this is not a reputable source.

It’s maybe worth mentioning that in part the cable networks and the broadcast networks are the same thing. The MSNBC, CNBC and NBC Decision Desk are one in the same. Ditto for FOX and FOX News. ABC and CBS both have 24-hour Cable news channels that haven’t caught on, but they’ll call it simultaneously too.

I’m betting that NBC calls it last, they seem to be the most conservative here and they got the AZ stuff right. Fox will probably go first since even if they were wrong on AZ, it won’t matter with PA being a lead pipe lock at this point. In for a penny, in for a pound.