I would say “the new GOP.”
The GOP’s position is usually “everything was perfect in my formative years. Stop messing with it.”
Naturally, the way things were in their formative years changes as new generations come and go. So the GOP is naturally updating its conservative stance all the time.
Political parties morph and change over time and can make radical transformations.
The Democrats in the early 1800’s were the party that supported slavery and the slave fugitive laws, then after the civil war the Jim Crow and segregation policies. They are something quite different now, although IMHO they still hold some of those tendencies.
The GOP in 50 years will be a dramatically different party I suspect.
Unless they’ve lived a very, very long time, though, they weren’t alive when the government was small enough to drown in the bathtub, excepting of course the military, the parts that spied on the citizenry, and the parts that made sure you didn’t misbehave with your naughty bits.
If the Republicans (or Democrats) suffer several cycles of embarrassing blowouts, then they’ll rebrand themselves as “New Republicans” or “New Democrats”. Abandoning the party wholesale is very, very unlikely to happen. If one of the major parties is reduced to a desiccated corpse, that desiccated corpse is still more potent than one of the minor parties.
Of course this is due to a self-fulfilling perception. Serious people run under a major party label, because of the major advantages of belonging to a major party. Only cranks run on a minor party ticket because the minor parties suffer under all sorts of handicaps.
Therefore anyone running on a minor party is a crank. You’re a crank because you run on a minor party ticket, and you run on a minor party ticket because you’re a crank. If you had serious ambitions you’d run on a major party ticket, nevermind your special snowflake political opinions, because that’s the way things are done.
Or to put it another way. Suppose you’re a popular non-politician, and the country is going through some turmoil and the major parties aren’t doing shit, and you’re going to ride in on a white horse and save everyone. Do you start up a brand new White Knight party? Or do you take over one of the major parties and make yourself their champion? If you’re such a White Knight, why can’t you just run in the Republican or Democratic primaries and wipe the floor with those bums, and then go on to the general election? And if the process is so flawed that even though you’re a White Knight you can’t win the primary, how exactly do you expect to win the general election in a three cornered race against two opponents with the backings of the major parties? If you were running on a major party ticket you’d automatically get the support of one of the rump parties, in addition to your White Knight party supporters.
I agree that the Republican Party is likely to die away completely within a few decades. But the new party that arises to replace it will be called the Republican Party.
Yes, they do, and that’s one of the reasons that the Republican party is going to die off, because those people are increasingly realizing that, and voting for the party that holds those views.
There was some poll a few years back that said about half of Republicans under 50 supported gay marriage. A CNN poll this year said 42% of all Republicans thought that marriage was a constitutional right.
Meh. The Clintonista New Democrats are to Hubert Humphrey’s Social Liberals and FDR’s New Dealers what Kraft Singles are to Cheddar.
I’ll actually give the OP an answer. It’ll be the Partea Party. Not sure of the spelling. When it’s no longer fashionable to be “Tea Partiers” or “the Christian Coalition,” the white-power/classical-liberal axis will sell itself as the party of hedonism and unrestrained fun, fun, fun, unlike those prudes and bores in the Democratic Party.
The seeds are already there. Look at how the Democrats treated Anthony Weiner. Would the GOP have turned on one of their own over sexting? Probably not so much.
But Grover Norquist has publicly admitted that he formulated his plan to sell the GOP as ‘the party where every candidate would predictably vote to cut taxes’ when he was a child or adolescent.
It’s still driven by a childish idea; just one of invention and self-congratulatory putative cleverness, instead of the more obvious nostalgia and dreams of an idealized childhood existence that the usual stereotype would imply.
The GOP is in a spiral where they purge moderates, which moves the party to the right, which purges moderates, which moves it to the right, etc.
Evenso, I think with that downward spiral they are still going to be a popular party with minimum 40-45% of national support. However by the 2020s they could be in permanent minority status on the federal level.
The problem is how do they moderate when the party mostly consists of the most conservative 20% of the public? In 2008 and 2012 the GOP picked the ‘electable’ candidate and lost both times. Now they probably feel they need a more conservative candidate.
Except that cycle already stalled. Tea Party backed candidates generally were unsuccessful at purging more establishment choices to get nominations for the 2014 midterm election. It’s hard for them to say, “I told you so” when the election went so well for the GOP. The horde of presidential hopefuls has a fair chunk that are walking a line more towards the moderate side. The changed rules for the nomination this cycle are presented as making it easier for establishment candidates by the more extreme portions of the party. How 2016 plays out will have a lot to say about whether it’s a pause on the road to party wide insignificance or a reduction in the influence of the more extreme minority.
That’s practically an exception that proves the rule-the Whigs disappeared over a century and a half ago and only as a result of a massive divide in the country that resulted in civil war. The Republicans in the 1920s and then the Democrats in the 1930s enjoyed supermajorities in Congress that only be dreamed of by either party to-day, yet the two party system has endured.
nm.
The odd thing is that these kinds of threads tend to pop up at times when the GOP has just won some elections.
But the GOP is going to die off soon! Really! I read it on the Internet!
Regards,
Shodan
So you figure the Republicans current streak of one will endure?
Meanwhile, back in the Real World, Republican strength at all levels of government is the highest its been since 1928. Control of more state legislatures than the democrat party, more governorships, more Senators, more Representatives.
Hopefully, sixteen years at least. See puddleglum’s cite for the current trends.
Whoever wins the White House will be re-elected in 2020, barring accidents, assasination, or a real scandal, but Congress is another matter. Fortunately the GOP has a more productive farm system - the Dems are handicapped by the fact that Hillary is the heir presumptive.
And her current strategy is not a wise one IMO - she is not addressing issues, instead trying to be likeable, which ain’t gonna work. Meanwhile the constant drumbeat of minor scandal-denial-revelation-more denial is counter-acting even her expensively marketed attampts at charm school.
So I have hopes for the future. If another Dem really runs against her instead of for the Veep spot, she will go into attack mode again and reveal her nasty sides. She may, probably will, limp into the nomination, but a whole year of pretending is wearing, especially at her age.
Regards,
Shodan
You honestly think one of these dumbass Republican nominees stands a chance?
During and after the Civil War, the Democrats got slammed as the party of slavery and treason, and were out of power for a very long time. They survived. During the Great Depression, the Republicans got slammed as the party of depression and ruin, and were out of power for a very long time. They survived. The Republican party now is doing better than any of those two parties were doing at the time.
Gerrymandering is an amazing tool.