Who won the debate tonight?

Great Debates
81

Actually, by the criteria that you originally set forth Hitler would evaluate as a much more successful leader than Jesus. My point has always been that perhaps these criteria are not the best ones with which to choose a leader. I am glad that you now say you care about charisma only when other issues balance each other out. Your original post:

reduced knowledge of the issues to a trivial level and implied a very shallow measure upon which to judge the next leader of our country. It is an attitude I find depressingly prevalent in our country. While I remain astounded that anyone can look at Gore and Bush and have all of their policy differences cancel out neatly, I am happy that you at least give some consideration to the issues.

Then again, my expectations of the American body politic are not particularly high.

82

I guess it’s to be expected in the TV age, but don’t make the mistake of confusing poor TV presentation with actual stupidity.

James Stockdale looked like a complete moron in the debate in '96, so much so that he was parodied all over the place as a bumbling fool. Yet the man was an Admiral in the Navy, a respected scholar (grad studies at Stanford, College Professer, and senior research fellow at the Hoover Institute), and won the Congressional Medal of Honor along with 26 other decorations including two Distinguished Flying Crosses, three Distinguished Service Medals, four Silver Stars, and two Purple Hearts.

He was twice the man of either of his opponents (Quayle and Gore), yet he came across on TV as a distant third.

In Bush’s case, let’s not forget that he has a Harvard MBA, and that he scored in the top 5% of his officer examinations when he joined the guard.

He also learned to fly F-102 jets, which is no mean feat. The washout rate in jet school is pretty high, and assignment to fighters means you’re the cream of the crop. And this is not just physically difficult, but intellectually. A high percentage of jet fighter pilots have degrees in engineering and other physical sciences. The curriculum is very difficult, and dumb guys just don’t make it through no matter how many political connections they have.

On paper, Bush looks much smarter than Gore. He had higher school marks, completed a graduate degree, went on to be successful in business, and was a very popular governor in Texas. Gore has a record of dropouts and at best mediocre grades in school.

But Gore sure comes across as smarter on TV, and we all know that that’s all that really matters these days.

83

Sam:

In print, as well. I’ve read a number of interviews with each candidate. To me, Bush always comes off disingenuous and pandering. He uses a lot of words, but never really seems to say anything. He cleverly avoids committing himself, but is quick to take credit when things go well, in spite of his lack of contribution. Very politician-like. Gore, on the other hand, has a lot more personality in print than he does in person. His thoughts are inovative, sometimes brilliantly abstract, and usually provacative.

If you want to see what is, in my opinion, the definitive contrast between their relative intelligences, try to get a hold of their interviews in Red Herring Magazine. Unfotunately, these are not available on-line (at least, I haven’t found them on-line), but I’m sure they’re available at your public library.

84

I take it you haven’t read “Earth in the Balance”? (-:

Anyway, I’m not claiming that Gore is stupid. I happen to think he’s a very smart guy. And I don’t put a lot of stock in college grades - I never noticed much of a correlation between intelligence and good marks when I was in university - the guys who got the best marks were the guys who worked the hardest. High marks might mean that you can’t be dumb, but poor marks don’t mean anything other than that you really didn’t care a whole lot at the time.

Anyway, my point is that perception on TV can be wildly different than reality. Stockdale is easily the most accomplished scholar of the last dozen or so VP candidates, yet he came across as the dumbest.

The point is that our characterization of Bush as stupid is almost certainly wrong. You don’t graduate with a Master’s from Harvard, fly fighter jets, run businesses, become a governor of a large state, and make it to the presidential election if you’re just an old dumb guy. Doesn’t happen.

I watched Bush on Letterman last night, and what struck me as a prime character trait is that he is deathly afraid of saying the wrong thing. So every time he’d answer even the simplest question that was slightly off his ‘safe comment’ database, he’d stammer, give a little self-conscious laugh, and utter some generality.

Mind you, that’s probably smart, and I’m sure Gore does the same thing. He’s just better at it. It’s the slight hesitation and stammer that makes Bush look like he’s dumb. If he could rap off meaningless comments like the ‘Pros’ do, he’d sound more forceful, and therefore more intelligent.

If that’s the case, then if he wins the Presidency you might see a completely different person since he’ll no longer have to worry about losing an election over a silly mis-statement.

I’ve seen clips of Bush speaking when he was Governor of Texas and not running for anything else, and he DID come across as much more forceful, passionate, and even more intelligent.

85

SterlingNorth
I can’t make your link work right now so I can’t comment on the site. I will try again later. I would love to look at their method of “forcing” a state and compare it to realclearpolitic.com.

I see your site and raise you another electoral college breakdown over HERE. This guy is definitely a Bush supporter, but he has an unbiased method. He uses the most recent poll for a state. HE might have a standard based on Likely Voters and sample size, but he has had the same standard all the way through. Any poll who meets the standard is the poll he uses to call the state. He actually had Gore ahead for awhile, so his method can cut both ways.

This guy has it at:

Bush
Lock: 55
Solid: 70
Leaning: 117
Toss-up Bush: 63

Bush Total: 305

Gore
Lock: 19
Solid: 48
Leaning: 105
Toss-up Gore: 9

Gore Total: 181

and 52 electoral votes that he did not force.

I wish we could bet on this. I already have a bet for dinner at Bennihana’s with someone who thinks Gore will win. I even offered to spot him 2% points in the general election, but he was to proud to take it.

BTW…Cool armadillo