Geroge Bush ahead in the pols again: HOW?

Great Debates
1

Watching CNN yesterday, I was shocked, SHOCKED to see that Geroge W. Bush is ahead of Al Gore once again 49-41% in a poll with a 3.5% margin of error, after over a month of Gore blowing past Bush.

I hate to turn this into a Gore-Bush debate (and it could, hence I did not post this in General Questions, yet it is really not a Great Debate either), but this stat confounds me, especially since I didn’t see CNN do any analysis as to where Gore went wrong after riding all that momentum from the Convention.

My theory is this: in the debate, Gore came across as TOO heady and intellectual with his numners and all that, while Bush came across as a “plain good 'ol boy businessman from West Texas”, which of course is a joke since his rich daddy had him educated at Yale. (And yes, Gore comes from a rich family too).

I think Cheyney’s performance against Lieberman also came across very well too. The thing is, neither Gore nor Lieberman did anything “stpuid” to cause this shift in the polls. As a matter of fact, after watching the 2 debates, I feel Gore clearly was superior to Bush and Lieberman-Cheyney was a tie.

I’m also wondering if Ralph Nader’s recent media campaign (Larry King Live, Queeen Latifah, Meet the Depressed)hasn’t taken a few votes from Gore either.

Merits of either candidate aside, with the economy the way it is, I’m just am really shocked an incumbent is in this danger of being voted out.

Any thoughts, Dopers?

2

Well, the number shift can be explained for a lot of reasons.

First: While Gore ‘won’ the debate, ‘winning’ the debate doesn’t actually mean anything, election-wise. Sure, Gore can put out a five-point, specifically-detailed plan and throw off all attacks against it; but if you don’t like what his plan is for, it doesn’t matter how well he presents it. Just because one person makes a better arugment in favor of euthenasia of minorities than his opponent’s argument against doesn’t mean that people will suddenly switch opinions on the matter.

Second: The ‘expectations’ game. Sure, Bush didn’t look particularly competent. Still, you listen to the comedians and people like lissener, and a lot of people watched the debate expecting Bush to start picking his nose halfway through a question. He handled himself semi-competently, which was a major improvement for some voters. Likewise, Gore was expected to be the policy wonk with the numbers and the programs and the domination and the whee-gaw fraulaben… whoa, sorry, channelled Professor Frink there… and he turned in the performance most people expected in that sense. However, Gore came across as a jerk in a lot of ways, which is something that most people didn’t expect (they just expected him to be boring, not out-and-out hostile), and that hurt him.

Third: Mistakes were made. The media has pounced pretty hard on some of the ‘truth-stretching’ that Gore made during the debate (visiting Texas fires, the girl who was in an overcrowded classroom, Winifred Skinner). Regardless of whether these particular isssues were truth-stretching, much of media has decided that Gore’s embellishments of his background are a major issue, and brought back up some old stories (inventing the internet, Love Story, Love Canal, looking for the Union Label, how much his dog pays for medicine) to point out a “trend” of resume-enhancing- none of which is making Gore look good. (Disclaimer: I am not attempting to assert the veracity and/or validity of any of these claims of truth-stretching. I’m merely reporting that the media is reporting upon them.)

Fourth: Polls lie. Look, depending upon what you consider the categories of voters, you can come up with vastly different results. Polls citing “likely voters” tend to be more favorable to Bush, polls citing “all voters” tend to be more favorable to Gore.

3

Good points, John. It almost made me Want to vote for Bush.

4

My guess would be mostly "the ‘expections’ game’ as John Corrado described it. Many thought Bush would get stomped like a grape in Napa Valley, and he didn’t.

5

He didn’t? Coulda fooled me…

6

theuglytruth: John made some good points. Plus, I think we have to ask ourselves if the CNN people did a good job of polling. Personally, I wouldn’t trust the media monkeys to do the precise sampling necessary for a true poll.

7

Well, at least John left me out of it this time.

I think that Bush’s handlers lost significant amounts of sleep before the debate brickbatting their Little Lord Fauntleroy into shape.

Since Bush didn’t give the media the usual gigantic handle to grab onto, (i.e., "sublimibbpphhhtthh), he came across as halfway sane for once. I’m sure that Gore didn’t help himself by scoffing audibly off camera almost every time Bush spoke. At one point Bush did lose his composure over Gore’s ability to produce numbers. However, since the American public is largely innumerate, this was probably sloughed off with nary a twitch.

Anyway, it sure looked like Gore whumped Bush in the debate, but maybe that’s because I was looking for something more than mealy mouthed platitudes. Of which both candidates had plenty, it’s just that Bush had a lot more of them.

8

What scares me are the pronuciations that Bush on because he didn’t drool on himself. I’m begining to think hat the whole imbecile thing was merely a ploy to lower our expectations. Gore comes out produces numbers. bush comes out doesn’t drool!. BUSH WINS!
Gore comes out and talks about medicare. Bush avoids mispronouncing a word. BUSH WINS!

9

John Corrado wrote:

While I didn’t see him pick his nose, I was wondering if anyone else saw him do the ‘cocaine’ sniff during a two-shot?

That had to have been the funniest moment of the debate.

10

{hijack}

A front-page article in yesterday’s New York Times said that males across the USA are leaning toward Bush rather than Gore becuase, while Al reminds them of an “honest, dependable Ford Taurus,” Bush reminds them of a “Maserati.”

WTF?

The only sports car Bush reminds ME of is one purchased by an overindulgent daddy for his spoiled 16-year-old bratling.

11

The Ugly Truth Is-

Gore is a liar!
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore recently claimed that his
> > > > >mother-in-law pays more than$100.00 for the arthritis
> > > > >medicine Lodine; and he claims that his dog takes the
> > > > >same medicine for $37.00, claiming “This is wrong!”
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Gore’s aides were quick to apologize for Gore’s
> > > > >lie, saying the information was from a Democratic
> > > > >study. Washington newspapers also reported that Al
> > > > >Gore wasn’t even sure his mother-in-law was taking any
> > > > >medication and wasn’t even sure she had arthritis.
> > > > >And, he doesn’t know anything about his dog’s
> > > > >“arthritis”.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore said his father, a senator, was a
> > > > >champion of civil rights during the 1960’s.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Gore’s father voted against the landmark Civil
> > > > >Rights Act of 1964 and was a racist who was fond of
> > > > >using the “N” word.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore said that his sister was the very
> > > > >first person to join the Peace Corps.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: By the time Gore’s sister joined the Peace
> > > > >Corps, there were already over 100 members.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: The same sister died of lung cancer years
> > > > >later and Gore vowed to never accept tobacco money as
> > > > >campaign contributions.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Just four years later, while campaigning for
> > > > >office, Gore spoke to the tobacco industry and said he
> > > > >was one of them because “I’ve planted raised it, cut
> > > > >it, and dried it.” He raised over $100,000 in
> > > > >“reported” contributions.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: While running for office, Gore’s campaign
> > > > >literature claimed he was a “Brilliant Student”.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Washington newspapers said he barely passed
> > > > >Harvard and consistently earned D’s and C’s.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Gore claims an extensive knowledge of law as
> > > > >a result of his extensive study at law school.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Al Gore dropped out of law school.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Gore claimed that his knowledge of God and
> > > > >spirituality came to complete fruition while
> > > > >“finishing” divinity school.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Al Gore dropped out of divinity school.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore claimed responsibility for inventing
> > > > >the Internet in the 1990’s.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT : Shocked scientists were quick to speak out,
> > > > >explaining that the Internet had been in widespread
> > > > >use by government and educational institutions since
> > > > >the early 1970’s.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore claimed the book “Love Story” was
> > > > >based on his life and Tipper’s.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Author Erich Segal called a press conference to
> > > > >deny his claim. (Couldn’t he at least lie about a love
> > > > >story where his sweetheart doesn’t die?"
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION : Gore claimed that as a reporter for a
> > > > >Nashville newspaper, his stories led to the arrests of
> > > > >numerous corrupt criminals.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: He later apologized for his claim and actually
> > > > >said it was untrue(Also known as lying).
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Gore claims to increase diversity in the
> > > > >staff that follows him daily, especially among blacks.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Black members of the Secret Service are suing
> > > > >because they claim they are not being promoted to
> > > > >positions guarding the Vice-President.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore said he was the first to discover
> > > > >the Love Canal nuclear accident.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: The incident was already discovered, being
> > > > >investigated, and covered widely in the press for many
> > > > >months before Gore was aware of it.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Gore said just recently that if elected
> > > > >president, he would put harsh sanctions on the sleazy
> > > > >producers of Hollywood’s extreme sex and violence.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Just six days later, Gore attended a fundraiser
> > > > >by Hollywood producers and radical gay activists where
> > > > >he told them that he would only pretend to “nudge
> > > > >them” if elected. He raised over $4 million.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore said he built his Tennessee home
> > > > >with his bare hands.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT : Totally false!
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore says parents should not have a
> > > > >choice between private and public schools because
> > > > >public schools are far better.
> > > > >
> > > > >TRUTH : Al Gore attended private school and he has
> > > > >sent his children to private schools.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore remembers his mother lulling him to
> > > > >sleep as a baby by singing the popular ditty, “Wear
> > > > >The Union Label”.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: The popular ditty was created by the unions
> > > > >when Gore was 27 years old.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore claimed to co-sponsor the
> > > > >McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: The Act was not sponsored until he had been
> > > > >out of office for over a year.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Al Gore claims to be instrumental in
> > > > >keeping gas prices low.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Gore has voted on numerous occasions to raise
> > > > >the tax on gasoline. In his book “Earth In The
> > > > >Balance” Gore claims that the nation’s Number One
> > > > >enemy is the internal combustion engine.
> > > > >(That’s the motor in your vehicle that gets you to
> > > > >work
> > > > >and takes your kids to school)
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: Gore pretends to champion the rights of poor
> > > > >women to be tested regularly for breast cancer with
> > > > >the most modern technology.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: While giving a speech on the subject in
> > > > >September, Gore didn’t know what a mammogram was.
> > > > >
> > > > >FICTION: AL Gore promised Florida’s senior citizens
> > > > >that they would finally have low-cost drugs with
> > > > >no interference from government.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Gore’s plan calls for the creation of a huge
> > > > >federal agency that would tell you which doctor you
> > > > >are allowed to see in order to get the “specialrates”.
> > > > >
> > > > >FACT: Al Gore told NBC’s Lisa Meyers that he
> > > > >had never told a lie. When Meyers pressed harder,
> > > > >“You’ve never told a !” Gore said, “Not that I know
> > > > >of.”

12

Not to get too off the thread, but that OTHER bastion of factual accuracy, Matt Drudge, posted these two gems on his site:

Did Al Gore really raise 10,000 chickens on a farm?

http://drudgereport.com/chik.htm

And a memo sent to Senator Gore in the 80s addressing concerns about some of his tales:

http://drudgereport.com/memo.htm

13

I have no intention of voting for Gore, but still, much of that long post by tomas is crap.

Erich Segal has, in fact, said that Al Gore was at least part of the inspiration for Love Story. Tipper, however, had nothing to do with it. Regardless of that, however, the original quote by Al Gore (said at in the middle of the night on an airplane) was that he had read a newspaper article claiming he and Tipper were the inspirations for Love Story. This quote has been confirmed by the two reporters he was talking to. The newspaper article exists.

As for Love Canal, to say that Al Gore said he “discovered Love Canal” is to purposely try to misinterpret his words (or to rely too heavily on RNC press releases). If you read his entire statement in context it is clear that he is saying that he was the first to hold hearings on a toxic site in Tennessee and in the course of those hearings learned of the already known problem at Love Canal.

14

For more info on the Gore “lies” you can read this about them at http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/outrage/gorelies.htm

15

:yawn: what’s next, liberals jumping in with allegations of drug abuse by Bush. Give it a rest.

16

Off to the Great Debates with you.

17

The biggest winner of last week’s debate was Ralph Nader, who jumped to 7% on some polls. Most of those votes had to come from Gore’s side. That is why Bush is winning.

18

Some other polls say Gore is ahead. The pollsters don’t seem to know WTF is going on. It WILL be a close race, unless either screws up real bad.

Note that already the same folks who branded Clinton as the antichrist are starting on Gore. They don’t just like Bush better- they violently hate & despise Gore. Kinda spooky.

19

Gawrsh, an’ I was suprised when some polls showed Bush ahead several months ago.

Fact numero uno: Public opinion fluctuates, sometimes even for reasons that can be several weeks old.

Fact numero dos: There are many different polls running arouond, and they almost always have different results (some News stations in my area have been saying Gore’s been leading by at least ten points for the last half-year).

Fact numero tres: I really don’t need to use any Spanish to emphasize my points, so I’m a-gonna stop.

Fact #4: Whoever “wins” or “loses” a debate is entirely a subjective matter. Apparently, more people thought Bush “won” rather than Ol’ Al, hence the recent poll numbers (as dubious they may be, even for a media tool).

Final analysis… the only way to tell who wins or loses will be who’s sitting in the Oval Office next year.

20

I do not trust polls!!!

I don’t know who they’re talking to. I’ve yet to run across anyone who has ever been included in one of these polls. And I’ve lived in 4 states and been to most of the others. Are they picking people out of a phone book? Are they random yahoo’s?
I don’t know what they’re asking. What if they’re phrasing these questions to lean one way or the other?
I don’t they should release the results of these polls. To me, and maybe I’m just being paranoid here, they are meant to influence, not to inform. Why should we care who leads in the polls? I think it’s to get undecided people to jump on a bandwagon.

OK, enough of my psychotic ramblings…