Thanks for posting the cite. I got the information via an email received this morning but hadn’t seen anything in print till now.
It’s good strategy, IMHO.
Oh, sure, if the district is currently D+2, then there are better than even odds that the next Democrat to run there would also win. But I’d really rather do better than just “better than even”.
Any Democrat can serve all constituencies (as opposed to Republicans, who serve no constituencies), and appealing to Republican voters isn’t really a big deal in California.
Much better than even odds. Of the 9 districts that are D+2, only 2 are held by Republicans. (That’s 22%). On the R+2 side, of the 7 districts, 3 are Dem, 3 are GOP and one is N/A. Part of the GOP’s storied candidate quality problem.
Interesting, but I still think your point remains. Cite: https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list
Looking in from outside, all three of them are fine, and my hope is to not hear about this race until November 2024. (But who am I kidding, this thing is probably going to have the highest dollars-to-consequences ratio of any Senate election in history, and California’s electoral system means that the primary might not even end it. Hopefully some Republican sacrificial lamb manages to claw their way into the top two.)
Job requirements for Senators and Reps. They should be compentent at both internal and external diplomacy. Internal diplomacy let’s them shape legislation. (Policy chops lets them shape good legislation and sensible outcomes). External diplomacy keeps them in office.
Senators aren’t known for their charisma: they find themselves constraining their language mostly to avoid public gaffes but also to endear themselves to the other members whose support they will need to move bills forwards.
Schiff plays a strong internal game and a decent external game. However. I understand that his appearances on MSNBC are heavy on legal terminology which doesn’t move the public opinion needle. Porter, in contrast, has her whiteboard: she might be able to sell progressive ideas as sensible reform to the broader public. Democrats don’t have enough people who even try to do that. Too many are like Democratic Minority Whip Dick Durbin who plays to the chin-stroking Washington press core, rather than pushing his team’s ball forward. (gifted link)
Porter’s internal diplomacy is fine, though Schiff’s experience would probably give him an edge in this regard. For shifting public opinion though, Porter has a clear advantage AFAICT. She uses direct language rather than getting bogged down in stare decisis, precedent, settled law or other terminology. Moreover, she shows up: she tries to persuade the public of her policy goals, as opposed to merely persuading a TV audience that she knows of what she speaks. Substantive difference.
Anyway, that’s my take for what the Dems need in the Senate now. Can Katie Porter fill those shoes? I’m not certain to be honest, but I think Schiff would offer the sort of competence that we already have a fair amount of.
God yes.
That’s of the districts that are D+2 right at this moment. That can shift. It’s not that hard for a district that’s D+2 right now to become +0 or R+2.
The Cook metric is based on the past 2 Presidential Years, so the data is locked in for 2024. But mutatis mutandis I agree: predictive power for 2024 will presumably be less than for 2022, sending the odds somewhat closer to 50:50. Also, I didn’t control for anything, including incumbency. Poor Republican candidate quality is a genuine effect, but including controls would probably reduce its apparent magnitude.
It’s still striking how small moves of the needle can lead to big changes in electoral probability.
ETA: I see wiki has a page up on the election: 2024 United States Senate elections in California - Wikipedia
Porter has 1 endorsement. Schiff has 23, including the retired Henry Waxman.
I’ve seen him on MSNBC frequently, and I’d agree with this. Extremely smart, extremely well-versed in the details, but comes across as a bit of a legislative nerd.
Kind of like the anti-Trump.
Those are the sort of candidates I personally tend to prefer. The nakedly charismatic make me slightly itchy - just too damn animated and smiley all the time 
. I prefer slightly boring policy wonks.
But I do get my preferences don’t necessarily jibe with the larger electorate.
Feinstein is okay, but she has visably aged and looks infirm.
Would you prefer a Republican? 
Because that’s what the Dems get when they start dising their own people.
I would pick Porter, sure, I like her style. None are bad choices.
Gosh you got racism, ageism and sexism in one line. 
Hooray! Feinstein is retiring!
He is not old, 62 is a middle aged guy by today’s standards. He could easily serve one term and leave by 70 or 12 years and bow out from the senate at 76. Even then he will be nearly 14 years younger than Fesinstein’s current age or the age Barbara Lee will be she runs.
From a 36 year old guy, you are not old.
I wonder if Governor Gavin Newsom would throw his hat and run for Senator? Its seems like a natural next step in his political career.
Not now - he just got re-elected to the governorship and as I will insist every time this is brought up, Governor of California confers more influence and power than California Senator. It might be different in a state like Montana or Wyoming, but California has the resources of a substantial country and as we’ve seen Newsom is in no way deterred from using his bully pulpit to go national when it suits him. Senator is a step down for him.
He might go there eventually, but the only genuine political promotion for him is effectively U.S. President and I don’t think he’s going to get there. If he takes a Senator slot it will just be to extend his political career/new experience/set up another run at the top office down the line.
While mostly true, this is the last time he can be elected as Governor. I doubt if he will settle down and retire.
IIRC, he said he would not run vs Biden in 2024.
As Gavin’s own people have stated, California is on the cusp of overtaking Germany in terms of GDP growth, which would make it the 4th largest economy in the world. That’s just mind-boggling.
Bumped.
Might actually help Schiff among Cali Dems:
Well, there you go.