Whose scorn is most harmful for a candidate?

Great Debates
1

The current consensus of opinions (including mine) of “Who really cares what Jesse Jackson thinks?” in this thread has me wondering-

Who do you think has the most power to do the most real damage to a presidential candidate (particularly one from their own party or lib/cons-demographic)? By* harm * I’m referring to the ability to cost them a significant number of votes with a denunciation (however mild or intentional/unintentional) or by crossing to the opposite end of the spectrum and endorsing their opponent.
A few current Political Superstars come to mind. I think it has to be current or very recent however: Bush still has some weight with the 29% and could probably hurt McCain if he wanted to. Certainly the Clintons could probably cost Obama some voters if they rescinded their endorsement. OTOH while he’s very respected as a person I doubt Jimmy Carter could cost Obama many votes if he endorsed McCain, or that Nancy Reagan or even Bush Sr. could cost McCain many votes if they endorsed Obama. I might be wrong on all of course.

There are few power-ministers who could probably sway a a significant number of votes by withholding endorsement or supporting an opponent: Dobson, Robertson, perhaps a couple of the really high Catholic clerics or the Mormon leaders.

A very few innermost inner circle folk could probably do it (extreme example: if Cyndi McCain or Michelle Obama split from their husband and said “I’m voting for the other guy”, or even if a really close “right hand man/woman” campaign manager defected).

Anyone else?

Do you think anybody in media is that powerful? Oprah, for example- while I don’t know that she’s an announced Democrat [I assume she leans a bit left of center] but if she endorsed McCain how much do you think it would hurt Obama?
Jon Stewart, who though accused of being left wing shills has done some Obama mocking, is pretty clearly in “I like John McCain as a person but not as a president”. If he surprised all and endorsed McCain in an interview do you think it would sway a significant number of votes?
Or flipside- if Bill O’Reilly endorsed Obama (“we take you live to Rupert Murdoch’s massive stroke”), would it sway a significant number?

Anyway, who do you think are the most significant crossover endorsements or most significant anti-endorsements for a candidate? (That’s “most significant” not in terms of prestige, but in terms of votes gained or lost.)

Who do you think are the most important unexpected stars in the crowns of Obama and McCain?

2

Oprah put Obama on the map during this primary by endorsing him sometime in November. He got much needed national attention because of her, which possibly allowed him to get the funds he needed to win Iowa.

Oprah switching her vote would definitely hurt. Not just among black voters but women voters as well. I think Al Gore would do the most damage going against Obama because he is probably the most respected and well known democrat. More respected than the Clintons and Carter.

For McCain to hurt, General Petraeus could really deliver a beating. Who better to tell the country that McCain won’t be able to handle Iraq than the only guy that seems to know how?

3

Their wives? That has to be the most damaging, of course. Other than that, you’d have to find someone who had a great deal of influence with the rank and file voters of that party. For McCain, a denunciation by any person in the Bush Administration would do it. If Cheney called him out, he’d be toast. On the Dem side…I think if Shayna said bad things about Obama, he’d pack it in. :smiley:

4

If either McCain’s wife or Obama’s wife publicly denounced her husband that would be all she wrote, so to speak.

edit: beaten in time

5

I think Colin Powell could hurt McCain if he endorsed Obama. Either Gore or Bill Clinton could probably do some damge if they hypothetically rejected a Democratic candidate.

I’m hard pressed to think of anyone who really has a lot of universal pull.