Why 40ish Percent of the youth might support the Republican Candidate

This may have been a valid line of logic in 2016. “Hey, I don’t like the way things are going, let’s roll the dice and shake things up by electing an agent of chaos”, but after seeing nothing get better for 4 years under Trump it makes no sense as a reason in 2024.

I think it’s more likely that a lot of young people have been radicalized by misinformation and socially isolated the changes in the world including social media. Isolated people can fall prey to hateful ideologies that give them a reason for their failures that aren’t their own flaws. See the rise of the incel movement for a prime example of that. And having been made shitty people, they flock to the god of shitty people.

I don’t think they expect Trump to make their lives better. They think Trump will make the lives of those they hate worse.

Here are some stats.

But in the first 48 hours after President Joe Biden bowed out of his bid for reelection and Harris announced she was running in his place, more than 38,500 registered, according to Vote.org, a nonpartisan platform that encourages voter registration.

As of Friday morning, the figure had surged past 100,000.

Voters under 35 make up nearly 85% of the new voters registering on Vote.org and 18-year-old voters alone make up 18%. Typically about 80% of those who register on the website actually cast a ballot.

It goes on to say that prior to Harris becoming the presumptive nominee, young voters had mostly checked out of the election because they didn’t care about either candidate.

An analysis published earlier this month by Tufts University found youth registration lagging in most of the 36 states examined. In every state for which they had data, they found fewer 18- and 19-year-olds registered now than in November, 2020

I don’t know about the 700% figure but we’ve seen a massive surge in registration from young voters, immediately following Biden’s withdrawal and the endorsement of Harris.

Wage growth has outpaced inflation for over a year. It’s a perception issue, partly based on which specific prices are higher.

Wage growth vs inflation U.S. 2024 | Statista.

That depends a whole lot on where you live. I’d be interested to see the demographics of where those 40% are from. I’m betting way more in red states and communities than in liberal strongholds.

This is really true, and it also made me laugh.

I’ve seen the 700% figure as well. If I see it again I’ll post it.

Cite for this? i would agree that admins and policies 50 years ago would be viewed as conservative. But that was hair length, dress codes, and saying the pledge of allegiance. I didn’t feel it as being about a party, or who to vote for. And i grew up in podunk, conservative farming counties.

Getting 40% of the yute vote is not much better than the 25-point drubbings Republicans have routinely endured during the trump era.

If those 50 million 18-29s turn out at 55% in November, trump is toast.

Yes! I think the greatest political hoax ever perpetrated on the American people is that, somehow and despite ALL evidence to the contrary, the Republican part is the “common man’s” party. Right after Trump was elected, he gave the rich more than a trillion dollar tax break. Doesn’t matter. Women vote for him despite the fact that the Right is trying to strip us of our rights and insult us left and right. Doesn’t matter. Amazing.

If the 18-29s voted at the rate senior citizens do, there would be hardly any Republican officeholders anywhere in the country.

But that seems unlikely.

The registration numbers are heartening, yes. But they gotta turn out.

I and a lot of male teens I grew up with didn’t go through this. It seems to be some subset, and not due to biology. I think it in part comes from the “boys will be boys” attitude that people are encouraged to have.

My observation is that it’s usually more subtle. Some teens don’t feel like they fit in, and then find a welcoming arm with Nazi types, who insist they are “just joking” and get them to go along with them. Then this results in those teens being shunned, which drives them back more into the group. Only after they are devoted do they start saying some of it’s true, using the fact they are mad at society already.

In other words, there is a concentrated effort towards taking those kids who might be somewhat unhappy and buy into a little bit of stuff, and radicalizing them. It’s not just passive.

Yeah, the questioning of how come young people/women/minorities/etc. can continue to support the Right Wing candidates suggests somehow our own failure to imagine that there may be people among those demographics that honest to goodness care more about a particular RW single-issue subject than about vague notions of group solidarity or “justice” or “democratic values”. It also fails to consider that Right Wing parents raise Right Wing children.

Which is a common radicalization path. Add the earlier mentioned online isolation phenomenon, and you can then describe it with a word the Right loves to use about any exposure of their young to something or someone they disapprove of: “grooming” (*).

Though really the truly radicalized are as everywhere a small but loud and potentially dangerous fraction. The bulk of the group of RW youth is really people who’ll just go along with their crowd while imagining themselves to be individualists.

(* here used in its pre-snarlword figurative sense of training someone to carry on your work/cause. )

One reason for this is that a lot of high-profile famous people tend to be liberal. Most Hollywood celebrities are liberal, for instance. Zuckerberg, Gates, Buffett, etc. are liberals. In other words, people whose lifestyles or wealth are far beyond the common man.

So if Hollywood celebs are liberal, many common people may draw the conclusion that whichever party stands for the opposite of Hollywood values may be the common man’s party.

WSJ has an article about young men joining with Republicans while young women remain Democratic. On the issues polled, men are more against gender identity, immigration and fiscal issues like student loan forgiveness and in favor of extending tax cuts.

And, of course, the whole “They don’t want you to be an Alpha Man and are depriving you of your God-given superior role in society” thing…

Some men say they have lost economic, cultural and political influence to women amid the focus on equity and diversity. Others expressed resentment over feminist and progressive attitudes on college campuses, in the entertainment industry and at many workplaces.
[…]
Some men interviewed said they were fearful of criticism by women and expressed their resentments only in private and with other men. Several said they hide their conservative views because women they know have said they won’t date right-leaning men.

Other men say they are drawn to the so-called manosphere, a loose collection of male influencers who espouse macho, “anti-woke” views. The hyper-masculinity of the right, many of them said, is at the core of its appeal, not policies or party politics.

I have zero doubt that a significant portion of this isn’t basically “How dare I be expected to act a certain way or be judged by my actions before I can get the sex I deserve? Back in the good old days, they’d just understand their role in the relationship, then clean the house and be happy to do it. Trump is the sort of macho man who understands me and wants the same society.”

This wasn’t paywalled for me but YMMV:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/men-women-vote-republican-democrat-election-7f5f726c?reflink=share_mobilewebshare&st=7jdsqe6z4sa6tti