Why are so many advanced, progressive nations leaning convservative these days?

[Mijin]

Also ITR champion has the popular understanding of manufacturing / globalization, where an object as complex as a computer, is just made in one place, and nowadays is made in China since it’s cheaper.

Most assembled items are not like this, especially not a computer.

Instead, the components come from all over the world, and many of the components are made in developed countries with a good profit margin; companies that make key innovations can reap the rewards.

Then final assembly happens, which is low-skill and low-profit. Since profit margins are very low, it makes sense to do it in a country with low labor prices (or have robots do it).

The idea of a race to the bottom in the US, dropping minimum wage in the hope of “making” computers (i.e. doing final assembly) there is wrong-headed in so many ways.
But, as I say, it’s the man-on-the-street understanding of manufacturing, and so this administration might just well go for it.

[AK84]

**Mijin ** and ITR are also speaking as if it’s still 1995 and all the Chinese do is assemble Western designed stuff. In fact the Chinese are making their own high end stuff now, they have put in billions into R&D at a time when Western governments have mostly not been doing that.

[Mijin]

@AK84

**Mijin ** and ITR are also speaking as if it’s still 1995 and all the Chinese do is assemble Western designed stuff. In fact the Chinese are making their own high end stuff now, they have put in billions into R&D at a time when Western governments have mostly not been doing that.

FTR, I live in China, making high end stuff

[Mijin]

To elaborate (I missed the edit window):

I work for a company in China making hardware and software for the medical industry. The devices we make start at around half a million dollars each.
The components for these devices are made all over the world; the biggest supplier is based in Germany, but it’s literally dozens of countries in total.

Final assembly happens in Beijing right now, but there’s been discussion of moving it elsewhere if the salary gap between china and some other east asian countries gets too big. Nobody cares about losing those jobs; they aren’t the ones a developing country should aspire to, let alone the US.

Same dealy with iPhones or whatever. You want to be designing it, or writing software for it, or maybe making some of the advanced components inside. But all this requires innovation – it’s not a matter of salaries.
And you don’t want to be doing the low-skill, low-profit task of final assembly of the thing, but those are the jobs where apparently the US public and politicians are focused right now.

[AK84]

Cool. Then you know that firms like Huaweii and Qualcomm are making huge strides into taking a big pie of the technology industry in their own right.

[AK84]

@Mijin

To elaborate (I missed the edit window):

I work for a company in China making hardware and software for the medical industry. The devices we make start at around half a million dollars each.
The components for these devices are made all over the world; the biggest supplier is based in Germany, but it’s literally dozens of countries in total.

Final assembly happens in Beijing right now, but there’s been discussion of moving it elsewhere if the salary gap between china and some other east asian countries gets too big. Nobody cares about losing those jobs; they aren’t the ones a developing country should aspire to, let alone the US.

Same dealy with iPhones or whatever. You want to be designing it, or writing software for it, or maybe making some of the advanced components inside. But all this requires innovation – it’s not a matter of salaries.
And you don’t want to be doing the low-skill, low-profit task of final assembly of the thing, but those are the jobs where apparently the US public and politicians are focused right now.

Exactly, in today’s world it is incorrect to think of something being “made in xyz”. Even the “designing” bit crosses many border many times.

One thing that political leaders in the ostensible First World don’t realise is how much the centre of gravity has shifted. The majority of world trade by volume and value now occurs in the Far East, the Orient if you will rather than Europe/N America. Anti-globalisation won’t keep the darkies out, it will keep the White from being in.

[octopus]

@AK84

Exactly, in today’s world it is incorrect to think of something being “made in xyz”. Even the “designing” bit crosses many border many times.

One thing that political leaders in the ostensible First World don’t realise is how much the centre of gravity has shifted. The majority of world trade by volume and value now occurs in the Far East, the Orient if you will rather than Europe/N America. Anti-globalisation won’t keep the darkies out, it will keep the White from being in.

I think you are unfairly over-simplifying people’s concern about globalization and de-industrialization.

Not everyone has the brains to design iPhones or work at Google.

[Nava]

@astro

Just curious. In addition to the US and the UK a number of advanced nations seem to be tilting conservative these days. I know every nation has it’s own dynamics and issues but this multi-nation conservative tilt is a real thing. Is there some driving force behind the scenes that’s acting on these converging impulses or is it just chance that this inclination seems to be effecting a number of advanced nations at the same time?

In a lot of those nations, what is going down is the center-left, but favoring both the right (with some of the center-left moving to the center-right and some of the center-right moving further right) and the far left (with the younger people who might in previous generations have joined the socialists or the communists instead joining the Pirate Party, the Greens or the populist stalinists).

You know, it feels real weird to notice that the Pirate Party looks almost staid and middle-aged compared with some of the newer parties. Bunch’a nerds anyway, most of them…

[doorhinge]

the OP - for historical reference -

@astro

Just curious. In addition to the US and the UK a number of advanced nations seem to be tilting conservative these days. I know every nation has it’s own dynamics and issues but this multi-nation conservative tilt is a real thing. Is there some driving force behind the scenes that’s acting on these converging impulses or is it just chance that this inclination seems to be effecting a number of advanced nations at the same time?

@msmith537

No, and I’m not sure why your question is even relevant.

The forces that are driving conservatism in the US are probably similar to the ones driving it in Europe. At the end of the day, conservatism is about a combination of identity with a certain group living within a certain area and having a deeply rooted belief that group is more deserving and entitled to be there than other people. I believe that holds true if for "Real Americans, Real Brits, Real Germans, Real Greeks and pretty much anyone else who considers themselves the true heirs to any particular nation.

And what happens whenever there are economic or social problems, these conservatives blame “Liberalism” for distributing wealth and resources from Real Citizens to the poor, immigrants, and other fringe groups (who probably shouldn’t be there in the first place).

The OP questioned why a number of advanced nations seem to be tilting (leaning) conservative these days.

To me, it appears that many of the voters are not satisfied with the direction/accomplishments of their current governments. As a result, the voters vote for change. Change that you may not like, but I doubt that you have much influence with these conservative tilting/leaning democracies.

All democracies have a vested interest in meeting the needs of their constituents. Elected officials who refuse to abide by the wishes of a majority of their voters usually end up looking for honest work in another field of endeavor. Sometimes that means a more conservative government, sometimes that means a more progressive government.

[Shodan]

P J O’Rourke’s line is “Republicans say that big government doesn’t work. Then they get elected, and prove it.”

Then the voters elect Democrats who say that big government will work. Then they get elected and prove the Republicans were right.

Regards,
Shodan

[ITR_champion]

@Mijin

Also ITR champion has the popular understanding of manufacturing / globalization, where an object as complex as a computer, is just made in one place, and nowadays is made in China since it’s cheaper.

Most assembled items are not like this, especially not a computer.

Instead, the components come from all over the world,

That’s true but it doesn’t change my point. In fact it reinforces my point. We have a global economy and global supply chains. So big manufacturing companies, when choosing a place for a new plant, can choose to put it in almost any company. So where will they choose to put it?

They will choose to put it in a place that provides what they need and which allows them to operate it at a reasonable cost, and where they are sure they will continue to be able to operate it. Not in a place where they have to comply with thousands of expensive regulations. Not in a place where they are required to have a labor union. Not in a place where they’re likely to face a lot of lawsuits.

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@ITR_champion

That’s true but it doesn’t change my point. In fact it reinforces my point. We have a global economy and global supply chains. So big manufacturing companies, when choosing a place for a new plant, can choose to put it in almost any company. So where will they choose to put it?

They will choose to put it in a place that provides what they need and which allows them to operate it at a reasonable cost, and where they are sure they will continue to be able to operate it. Not in a place where they have to comply with thousands of expensive regulations. Not in a place where they are required to have a labor union. Not in a place where they’re likely to face a lot of lawsuits.

Your implication is that factories can only exist where they can treat workers like shit which seems to be more pessimistic then even my views on capitalism. Yet despite that, manufacturing is far stronger in Japan or Germany (as I noted) where unions are stronger and there is a greater degree of social corporatism then the United States.

[Mijin]

@ITR_champion

That’s true but it doesn’t change my point. In fact it reinforces my point. We have a global economy and global supply chains. So big manufacturing companies, when choosing a place for a new plant, can choose to put it in almost any company. So where will they choose to put it?

They will choose to put it in a place that provides what they need and which allows them to operate it at a reasonable cost, and where they are sure they will continue to be able to operate it. Not in a place where they have to comply with thousands of expensive regulations. Not in a place where they are required to have a labor union. Not in a place where they’re likely to face a lot of lawsuits.

Agreed with you up until the first “Not in…”.

Having everything my company needs means things like good infrastructure, which implies taxes. Having a strong legal system means I can sue suppliers if they cheat me, or other companies that use my IP without permission.
And in terms of stability, yeah a country with lots of laws and taxes might tweak here or there but a developing country operating with laissez faire rules might change their whole system overnight.

Of course these aren’t the only factors affecting where I locate my factory; they’re just the ones you’re using for your argument right now.

Also, speaking more concretely for a moment, from what I’ve heard about the American system, taxes are quite low but the system is horrifically complex. And investment in infrastructure has been poor. I’m certainly not defending either of these things.

[octopus]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

Your implication is that factories can only exist where they can treat workers like shit which seems to be more pessimistic then even my views on capitalism. Yet despite that, manufacturing is far stronger in Japan or Germany (as I noted) where unions are stronger and there is a greater degree of social corporatism then the United States.

Do Japan and Germany have the same degree of free trade the US has?

[AK84]

@octopus

Do Japan and Germany have the same degree of free trade the US has?

:dubious:
Both are WTO members and Germany is in the EU; with its cast iron rules on free movement goods, persons, services and capital.

Seriously?

[ITR_champion]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

Your implication is that factories can only exist where they can treat workers like shit which seems to be more pessimistic then even my views on capitalism.

I don’t recall mentioning “treating workers like shit”. I said that given the choice, companies will lean towards creating factories in places where they can do so at low cost, with less government intrusion and micromanagement. I also acknowledged that other factors play into their decisions. It’s certainly not the case that every big company on earth is building in exactly the same place. But in, say, the past ten years, how many large multi-national corporations that have the option to manufacture anywhere have chosen to build big new facilities in France, or Italy, or Greece? Those countries have bad government and regulatory climate, at least compared to their neighbors.

Yet despite that, manufacturing is far stronger in Japan or Germany (as I noted) where unions are stronger and there is a greater degree of social corporatism then the United States.

How many lawyers per capita are there in Germany or Japan? I’m guessing it’s a lot less than in the USA.

[Nava]

@ITR_champion

How many lawyers per capita are there in Germany or Japan? I’m guessing it’s a lot less than in the USA.

Every country in the world has less lawyers per capita than the USA, you don’t need to guess.

[AK84]

@Nava

Every country in the world has less lawyers per capita than the USA, you don’t need to guess.

Wrong its Israel.

[Hector_St_Clare]

@ITR_champion

It’s because liberal approaches and solutions keep failing.

To be specific, moderately liberal parties, the ones referred to as “center-left” in Europe are failing. In the USA, the Democrats have been crushed in Congress and lower levels. But in Europe it’s worse. The center-left parties that traditionally held power about half the time have been collapsing. Labor in Britain has no hopeof retaking power as long as this Corbyn critter is in charge. In France, the Socialist President pulls approval ratings of about 4%. SPD in Germany and PSOE in Spain have seen their membership fall through the floor. The most recent elections in Switzerland, Belgium and Ireland haven’t given center-left parties much to cheer for. The upcoming elections in the Netherlands don’t look promising either.

In some places such as Greece, voters have fled to the extreme left. But in most places, when the center-left party collapses, the conservative party gets the benefits. So this is really one of the major stories in world events right now, and it should be getting more attention.

So why is this happening? You can see some of the answers offered above: xenophobia, globalization, Russian influence, etc… This is what members of the center-left want to tell themselves: it’s the fault of bad people or stuff outside our control. It’s definitely not our fault.

But what do voters actually see when looking at center-left parties?

[ul]
[li]Massive government spending, growing larger all the time. In the USA, Social Security and Medicare will eventually bankrupt the country. Many cities and states government by Democrats are heading there even faster. Many European countries will also soon follow Greece into crisis caused by spending too much.[/li][li]Ever-growing bureaucracy. In Europe they complain about absurd rules on everything from bananas to vacuum cleaners. In the USA, the Democrats give us regulations on dishwashers, truck drivers, salmon, …[/li][li]Labor unions, especially government worker unions. A big problem in American and even bigger in most of Europe. The center-left parties often act like slaves of the unions.[/li][li]Political correctness. Most European countries impose censorship under hate speech laws. In the USA, the government is getting involved in whether people can wear offensive hats.[/li][li]Immigration issues. Certainly among the biggest problems in Europe was that the political mainstream was caught off guard by the millions of refugees flooding in, and had little convincing response to terrorist attacks and crime waves by Muslims. Covering up the truth doesn’t help either. If liberals won’t even mention rising crime caused by immigrants, right-wing parties will be happy to do that for them.[/li][li]“Progressives” against progress. In many places left-leaning politicians try to shut down or restrict new technology like Uber and AirBnb, in order to protect vested interest groups. Or look at the perennial campaigns against genetically modified foods. Don’t fight the future.[/li][li]High taxes. Always unpopular.[/li][/ul]

What liberals don’t seem to realize is that big government bureaucracies and labor unions are lumbering dinosaurs. They may have made sense for dealing with the problems of the 1950’s and 60’s, but now it’s 2017. They have no solutions that actually work in today’s economy. Most things in human life are getting better. Technology is improving. Choices keep multiplying for food, clothing, music, computer games, and everything that we get from capitalism. But big-government liberals keep fighting to deny us choice in many areas. That’s why they’re losing.

This is of course, obvious nonsense. People aren’t rejecting left wing economic solutions at all. They’re rejecting liberal and social democratic worldview as it regards cultural issues, specifically as regards immigration and the commitment to multi-ethnic societies. Social democratic parties which decided to go hardline anti-immigration and ethnonationalist would be able to hold on to power- Robert Fico is probably the best example, he’s successfully held on to power by mocking political correctness, taking a tough line on Muslims and Roma, etc… Same goes for parties of the far left: next door in the Czech Republic, for example, there’s a center left party that supports resettlement of refugees and a Communist party that opposes it. The center left is losing support, while the communists are mostly holding steady.

There’s no necessary connexion between your views on immigration and ethnicity on the one hand and your views about high taxes, economic redistribution, planning vs. the market, or socialism vs. capitalism on the other. To the extent voters are rejecting social democratic parties they’re doing so as a protest against multiethnic and multicultural ideals, not as a protest against center left economics.

If you look at polls of the British electorate (the YouGov one from 2015 is the one that’s illustrative here), for example, high taxes on rich people are not unpopular at all, nor is state ownership of key industries. A healthy majority of British people supports both things, including a lot of those who vote for the Conservatives and UKIP. The big division in voting patterns in the UK right now is over issues of ethnicity, not economics.

[Gukumatz]

Can’t speak for the US.

Europe isn’t really leaning conservative, though. It’s leaning nationalist-populist.

You have the prime right-wing nationalist-populists in FPÖ (Austria), DPP (Denmark), FN (France), GD (Greece), PVV (Netherlands), SD (Sweden), UKIP (Great Britain), SVP (Switzerland), FRP (Norway) and so on.

Some of these parties are quite different from the others. Most of what they have in common is:

• Euroscepticism
• Nationalism
• Populism
• Ethno-centrism
• Anti-elitism

A lot of them throw in laissez-faire capitalism for good measure.

When I say Europe isn’t leaning conservative but nationalist-populist, what I mean is that these parties have grown up in addition to the existing national conservative parties and movements.

For instance, in Norway the current government consists of Høyre and FRP. Høyre got about 30-35% of the votes, as usual. It’s one of the two big parties in Norway and is a traditional, conservative socialist-democratic party. They’re for lower taxes on business, smaller government, globalism, individualism, bla bla bla.

FRP* is further right still and has capitalized on the uptick in nationalist populist sentiment to aquire about 10-15% of the votes in the last election. They’re the ones agitating for closed borders, ethno-centric immigration, cultural identity, islamophobia, climate change denial, etc.

It’s kind of like how the Tea Party movement pulled the Republican party in the US further right. They’re not really conservative, they’re almost strictly reactionary, but they appeared like a lead weight on the far right of the scale and so they’re tipping the balance. (The left got the gormless Greens instead.)

(* FRP in Norway is one of the more-grown-up versions of this phenomenon, it’s been around for a while. This is the first period they’ve been in power though and their usual combat rhetoric has grown notable in its’ absence. They’re not governing well - where they’re not grossly irresponsible, they’re grossly hypocritical - but largely they’re being held by the ear by the conservative party. Still, it’s within the error bars and pulling their claws like this is an argument for integration into the political system instead of exclusion like SD in Sweden. )