Lotta people at the bottom used to need two full- or nearly-full time jobs. To the degree they only need one job now, their other shift is now going unfilled.
When substantially all the shit jobs paid very badly, each worker was supplying 1.5 to 2 worker’s worth of work, and all of it those same shit jobs. If each worker is abruptly empowered by increased wages to quit their shit second job, the instant worker shortage is 30-50% of all shit positions.
For someone well-paid enough to live on just one job, any pay raise doesn’t result in them working less. It results in them having more spending money and may even motivate them to work a little extra.
But when you’re used to working 60-80 hours a week, the tradeoff changes. Given a little extra money, buying a few more hours a week off is far more valuable. So that’s what many people do.
Multiple job holders as a percentage of employed is currently higher than the 2019 average and has negligible contribution to the current mismatch between job openings and available workers.
I’m sure there are more multiple job holders now than there were in 2019 - but are they the same jobs? I have always known people who worked second jobs and when most part-time jobs were fast food or retail, that’s what they did. But since COVID made working from home more common, there are more WFH part-time jobs and apparently it’s not unheard of for people to have two WFH full-time jobs. So it seems to me it’s possible for both to be true - that people who used to have to work two low wage jobs now only need one and that more , different people have two jobs.
@doreen just said something interesting I’d not thought of.
Lots of conventional pre-COVID ordinary in-office clerical jobs are kinda low productivity. As in you might be butt-in-seat for 8 hours, but the expected work can get done in 4 if you’re diligent and quick about it, while the rest of the workday is spent walking around, yakking, coffeebreaking, facebooking, etc.
Someone who had a job like that which was now WFH could potentially get two such jobs, and do 8 hours of continuous labor for two full-time employers for two full-time paychecks. That might take two computers and some artful juggling, and all that spare time for coffee and facebooking would be squeezed out.
When my kids turned 16, we told them that over spring break they had to go out and look for a summer job, and to keep looking until they got one. There are some lessons they learned from such work which were as important as just about anything they learned in school.
In my HO is that a lot of 20somethings would disagree with you … as a matter of fact I’d be surprised to find a lot of college grads who would be OK still doing the same job they did at age 23 after 20 years in the office …
isnt that (not having progressed in your working life) a marker positioning you close to “professional failure”? … the whole from dishwasher to millionaire american dream
I have onboarded four recent college grads in the last four years and our team overall have onboarded about 20.
All of them have been very interested in their career development in the last couple of years. There was some aberrant behavior during 2020 and 2021 when some people wanted rather more flexibility in terms of work location and schedules than were were willing to accommodate, but since 2022 it’s pretty much the same as it was a decade ago.
There has been a change over the last 40 years in how much more initiative younger employees take in their own development and from my POV it’s because employers have abandoned career pathing over 10-15 years except for a tiny minority of identified High Potential hires.
But would they be in the same office? The current career mantra is that you have to change companies to advance, rather than work your way up the same ladder. The career-minded college grads I’ve seen want an entry on their resume for the next job.
In my experience, moving up within a company is much slower than moving up among different ones. We had someone leave for another company that was hired back as a dept. head 2 years later, and her old cohort was not happy to see someone that left get a job people that stayed weren’t even considered eligible for.
Those are great fresh anecdotes about recent college grads. And about as this old fart expected from my 20+ years ago time hiring 20-something software folks.
But …
I suspect @nearwildheaven is mostly talking about HS grads and HS dropouts. You know, most of the headcount of the country. Many of whom are realistically resigned to the reality of a long series of relatively stagnant crap retail or warehouse or small grubby factory jobs. Or working a landscape crew. Or …
Are there ambitious folks within that cohort, e.g. who’ll end up leading a landscape crew then leaving to start their own landscape company then maybe end up owning 20 trucks and 20 crews? You bet there are! But not very many as a percentage of the semi-skilled laboring class body count.
In addition to the type of job you mentioned , there are lots of other jobs where the promotion is into a drastically different job - my husband is a sales rep who has no interest in becoming a sales manager because he likes traveling around all day to see customers and wouldn’t be able to do that as a manager. When I was a parole officer ( which required a bachelors degree) lots of my coworkers had no interest in getting promoted- it would take them from a job with very flexible hours where they were in the office one or two days a week to a job that required them to be in an office M-F 9-5.
It depends more on the particular job than the education.
Maybe not, but job sites are full of apprentices, second year apprentices, etc. All trying to work their way up the ladder to journeyman and then maybe a foreman one day.
A lot of blue collar workers start their own business not because that was the plan all along, but once they get into job, they start to see opportunities, work left on the table, poor management, whatever. And they think, “I can do better.”
The people really struggling are the ones who went to college and took a degree that doesn’t easily translate into a career. A degree in HIstory or Philosophy used to get you in the door as a business admin or junior manager or HR worker in a white collar office. Work at home has killed a lot of in-person office work, and AI is killing the paperwork shufflers.
These kids are often saddled with debt, can’t find meaningful work that has anything to do with their degree, and some of them are settling for low cost of living and doing gig work.
I first heard someone talk about this when I took my Gap Year after high school, more than 40 years ago. I was a keypunch operator (a predecessor to data entry) and one of my co-workers, who was then a 30-something with two young boys who’d attended college for a year, said she had no desire to “advance.” She was perfectly content to do her job, and go home.
Back in my active pharmacy practice days, I heard “And you could become the manager after a while!” I always said, “You couldn’t pay me enough to do that.” Most of my colleagues felt the same way. The duties of a new graduate are, for the most part, pretty much the same as those of someone who’s done it for 20 or 30 years.
Apprentices have been around for hundreds of years as a way for young people to learn by doing. Making ones way out of an apprenticeship was expected assuming you had the skills. Bad example. The academic version is a post doc.
Are the people who major in history necessarily less ambitious than those who major in CS? Liking a field which doesn’t may doesn’t make you a bum. I have a friend who wanted to major in art history but her father forced her into business. She did well for 35 years in terms of money - but not in therms of satisfaction with life. And she retired as quickly as she could.
The two Senior VPs I met with on Friday (one of Human Resources the other of Real Estate) had degrees in Art and French. There are lots of people working in our Marketing, HR, Operations, Strategy, Legal and even IT departments whose undergraduate degrees were in “useless” fields (according to STEM zealots).
Heck even one of my previous CFOs was a History undergrad and MA in political science. He was a budget manager for a presidential campaign before moving into Corporate Finance. He was making $250k+ in the 1990s before he took some executive boot camps in Finance and Accounting.
I didn’t say anything about their motivation, I was talking about external factors that are making such career paths more difficult. People with book learning but little domain knowledge, field experience (tacit kmowledge) are going to be ripe for disruption by AI. And the job market changes are lowing the need for office managers and other support people.
A friend who teaches philosophy at a college told me that an undergraduate degree in that field is an excellent preparation for law school and then being a lawyer. To be a lawyer, you have to understand how to formulate a thesis and make an argument for it. You have to learn how to write well to present that thesis and argument. You do that in the field of philosophy. It’s more common that you think to have an undergraduate degree in a field that’s not obviously connected with the job.
