The economic numbers are very strong almost across the board, and yet Biden is seen as weak in an area where I’d argue he’s knocked it out of the park. Yesterday, the Dow closed above 40K for the first time ever. And I know the stock market is not the economy. But the fundamentals are across the board very good. Consider the following:
Unemployment below 4% for 27 months in a row, a historic run -
The more expansive U-6 unemployment also at very low levels, currently at 6.9% -
Prime-Age Employment at its highest since 2001 -
Real Wages increasing faster than inflation, and especially strong for lower and medium-wage employees -
GDP Growth faster than any of the other developed economies since the pandemic -
Inflation tamed, with underlying multi-variate core inflation currently at 2.6% -
Manufacturing investment exploded -
How are we sitting here with 60+% of the public thinking we have a bad economy, and Biden is at fault? I don’t get it. He inherited a nightmare from the previous president, and we’re now fully recovered in ward-speed time. This election should be a blowout, but here we are, where the guy responsible for the mess in 2020 is seen as the stronger candidate, and the guy who cleaned up the mess is given the blame for the mess…
In a nutshell: The rightwing media has gotten really good at nit-picking everything to portray all Dems as evil socialists taking your money and giving to others. Also Coal, Oil, Transpeople and minorities.
Obviously, they’re full of shit, but they have an audience and it is frighteningly large.
People don’t eat, drink, live in, or get paid by national statistics. A person’s income may not have come close to catching up with inflation. Housing is more expensive and for a lot of people buying an impossible dream. Interest rates are up, hurting those who have debt or need to take on debt.
All the stats in the OP don’t hit as close to home for many people as inflation does. Things seem more expensive right now around the dinner table, so it must be Biden’s fault. And as mentioned, Faux News amplifies these feelings without reporting on the broader economy, and certainly won’t report on any successes. To a majority of Americans real economic data the eggheads like is just too hard to comprehend, but the $15 Big Mac meal is much more relatable. Biden is President, so it’s his fault.
So, I can understand that inflation was an issue. BTW, it was caused by supply shocks from the pandemic, not from Biden’s spending.
But one of the links I posted showed that real incomes kept up with inflation, and it specifically kept up in working class and middle class income categories. I think the average person’s income went up faster than inflation.
And inflation has now come way down. We’ve almost come back to the FED’s target, with no impact to hiring & no recession in sight.
Because the “economy” can mean so many things to so many people and can have numerous indicators, legitimate or not, the other side just cherry picks all the negative ones to highlight.
“Sure everyone can get a job and their 401ks have never been higher, but have you SEEN the cost of new houses these days! Booo Biden!”
“Sure gas prices are under control, US manufacturing is booming, and healthcare under Obamacare has controlled costs but have you SEEN the cost of a McDonalds value meal! Booo Biden!”
The Dems need to play offense and start highlighting the successes ad nauseam reminding people of what life was like with high unemployment, runaway healthcare costs, runaway gas prices, closing down of US manufacturing, 401ks losing half their value, etc.
Agree. The Dems also need to get dirty. Just highlighting what Biden has done isn’t enough - they need to pin all that negative stuff on Trump and Republicans in general, and fight this myth that Republicans are better for the economy. The irresponsible Trump tax cuts combined with increased government spending wobbled the economy even before the pandemic hit.
People do not understand inflation. They think it is when prices go up. They think when inflation is over, prices will go down. Like gas prices do.
Inflation is not a temporary increase in price, like with gas during a shortage. It’s a permanent increase. In fact, if the prices of houses was to start falling, you would see the same people complaining even more since they would start to owe more for their home than they paid for it. Same thing with cars, consumer electronics, nearly anything. Inflation is bad, but deflation is worse.
That, and few of the people complaining about inflation were around in the 70s, when double-digit inflation was the norm. Really, 3-4% inflation is not really that bad, particularly when it is obvious that the Fed has a handle on it.
ETA: I meant to follow with since prices aren’t going back down (we aren’t likely to see sit-down restaurant meals in the $30/person range ever again. Just like a $30,000 starter home). The public thinks that if Trump is president again, they might.
Yes! The economy responded to the pandemic in predictable ways, consistent with prior global catastrophes. True for the recovery as well. I’ll repeat: presidents do not manage or control the economy. Their influence is mainly indirect. The business cycle does what it does, and it has always been so.
I agree with you to a point. But Biden resisted the urge to turn to fiscal austerity too early, and I’d argue the some of his signature legislative accomplishments - things he strongly wanted - have helped speed up the recovery. I don’t give him full credit. But he deserves some non-negligible % of the credit.
This is the problem I keep having with people like Krugman, who assume that numbers and averages tell the whole story. Nobody is Joe Q Average. My pay didn’t increase to keep pace with inflation, for instance. Sure, it went up some, but not that much. These discussions often sound like “Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”
Now, yes, there’s an argument that someone who is doing fine personally but thinks the national economy is bad is misinformed or whatever. Or such people could be looking at the situation they find themselves in, the world they see around them–homelessness might be up and far more visible, for example–and that is going to be far more persuasive than some website statistics.
Well, when we talk about the overall macro-economy, we have to look at numbers and averages. This guides policymakers and businesses as well.
And Krugman will point out that people are more bullish on their own situation moreso than the macro-economy.
When we look at anecdotes, about 65% of Americans say they themselves are doing fine.
I can provide an anecdote that in my hometown, construction is booming. Jobs are plentiful. Restaurants are full, and houses are still being bought and sold.
My own income has done very well in recent years, and has kept up with the cost of living. My investment portfolio is doing well.
My own son is an environmental engineer, and his company has benefitted greatly from government money, as stuff is being built that he works on…
I just think that somewhere, there’s a massive disconnect in communication of the good news of the economy.
The President has limited control over the economy. And it is easier to harm the economy through poor policy than to help it.
Trump’s popularity boils down to two reasons. People prefer him to Biden or the alternatives, and/or people like or adopt or get a sense of community from his contrarian views. Some very wealthy people prefer Trump due to his views on taxes or having lobbyists write policy. If people just like a guy they give him more slack. Some contrarians will swallow anything Trump says, including his economic prowess. Is he not a businessman? (Do not answer.)
Things objectively are way more expensive than a decade ago. Regardless of government posted numbers or job gains. People notice that every time they shop, and they don’t like it much.
The Democrats presumably have a lot of talented politicians. I’m Canadian. But it seems to me you rarely see other major Democrats singing Biden’s praises. Why doesn’t the party bring out Obama and every woodwork politician to highlight the good Biden has ostensibly done? Republicans have no problems doing the equivalent (to a fault).
I didn’t mean to imply that presidents have no influence on the economy, sorry if I inadvertently did. But their influence tends to be on the margins and is generally not powerful enough to turn around the mega-ocean liner that is the U.S. economy.
Monetary and tax policy, the selection of the Fed Chairperson, the release of stimulus packages, etc.—these all have a non-negligible impact. Conversely, tariff policy can help to crater the economy.
But there are more than 33M small businesses, in addition to larger and mega-corporations, with millions of supply chains creating a web of connection no one fully understands, intertwined with a global economy of nations with similar, if smaller scale, complexities. The idea that the president is some wizard conjuring up the magic to “fix” the economy is absurd. For the most part, the economy does what it does, following well-known cycles.
“My administration has created 12 million new jobs!” Uh, no it didn’t. Dems and Republicans alike do it because it is a political loser to say, “You know, we really can’t make the economy do what we want” because the other guy will certainly say, “But I can!”
So, I understand the need for Biden to tell a good, compelling story about the economy. It is a realpolitik necessity. But it still annoys me.
All of this. Housing and food prices are, in many cases, substantially more expensive (relative to income) now, and there simply hasn’t been much good news in those specific areas. Plus, the media hammer that message home, as well.
So, there is a difference in the shamelessness of the two parties. As you point out, Dems don’t seem to be as actively “into” Biden as Pubs are with Trump.
One other humorous point along the same lines: Republicans will show up at ribbon-cutting ceremonies and point out jobs that they’re “bringing home” to their areas. They’ll do this even for construction projects that they voted against. Democrats write legislation that Pubs vote against, but they still try to take credit for things that make them appear to be helping their local area. I don’t think there’s a similar dynamic going in the opposite direction.
Partially. I think there have been many good responses so far, including your response.
I do wonder though if we’ve entered an era where basic economic conditions don’t help as much as they used to. Thirty years ago, Bill Clinton got elected & re-elected on “it’s the economy, stupid.” But in today’s world, I think culture wars, attacks on democracy, and the radicalization of the right-wing has made it harder for an average president like Biden (and he’s a normal president overall, who exists in insane times) to sell his economic policies in a way that translates into votes.