Yes…!
And here’s Paul Krugman, saying almost exactly what many of us on this thread are saying. Which one of you guys is Krugman? 
I did a gift link, for those who aren’t NYT subscribers:
Haha! I just came here to post this article. Here’s a great quote, which perfectly summarizes this thread:
Outside the economic commentariat, however, it often feels as if I’m butting my head against a wall. The dialogue tends to go something like this:
Me: “People say that the economy is terrible, but that their personal financial situation is good. That’s strange.”
Critic: “You’re saying that people should feel good because official statistics are good, ignoring their lived experience. Good luck with that.”
Me: “No, that’s not at all what I’m saying. Never mind the official statistics. The point is that if you ask people about themselves — that is, their lived experience — they’re fairly positive. But they still say that the economy, big picture, is bad.”
Critic: “So you’re telling people that fancy statistics matter more than their lived experience.”Sigh.
I think a few more rounds will really settle it, though!
I assume you means rounds of shots of alcohol.
But I fear an update to this might be in order,
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats busting caps into dumb motherfuckers heads. ~ (Not quite) H. L. Mencken
One, if not THE one, of the most telling statements Trump ever made on camera and in front of a live group of people was this: “Don’t believe what you see and hear, believe me.” Millions have actually bought into that. Despite ample evidence of economic prosperity, they scream that we are coming apart economically because of Biden.
Me: “People say that the economy is terrible, but that their personal financial situation is good. That’s strange.”
Critic: “You’re saying that people should feel good because official statistics are good, ignoring their lived experience. Good luck with that.”
From the other side, it feels more like:
Krugman: “People say that the economy is terrible, but that their personal financial situation is good. That’s strange.”
Critic: “Here’s a list of reasons people say they feel the economy is underperforming for them. And here’s reasons why you could both be able to pay your bills AND still feel downbeat about the economy as a whole."
Krugman: “Truly unknowable. We might never understand why someone could feel this way which defies all statistics…”
Critic: “Sigh”
Another article I’m looking at contains this choice line, saying that inflation “only” made prices jump by 16% whereas national income rose by 18%:
So, the recent increase in prices is not making it harder for most Americans to make ends meet (at least not harder than it was before the recent bout of inflation began)
Really? Someone gets a theoretical 18% raise which is 90% consumed by notably higher prices and no one can noodle out why they’d both be “fine” economically AND think things were stupid? Really?
“Sigh”, indeed.
So, in the Krugman article, he links to a survey by the Fed. 72% of respondents say their own finances are OK or better. The view of the economy tanked in 2020 (before Biden), and has stayed low.
What’s interesting is that the % of people saying they’re doing OK is similar to pre-pandemic, in the 70’s in this survey. The pandemic & inflation had very little impact on that number…But the views on the overall economy plummeted from the 50’s down to the 20’s and have stayed low, in the 20’s as late as 2023.
This is fascinating stuff.
Anyway, Biden has a tough job to do here. The actual statistics, which represents the experiences of the overall economy, are strong. People think they’re doing well themselves. But Biden is being hammered in the polls based on views about the national economy.
Pounds my head against the wall and leaves the thread again.
Who’s talking “graphs and charts” now?
90% of your arguments were pre-refuted by the OP.
All you had was the idea that the majority of people were individually worse off. But, as has been shown, people individually say they are better off in polls, and your own unnamed cite is also saying they are objectively better off. So now all you can do is wave around one of the numbers, because the economy overall is objectively great, and people individually say they are doing great.
The, uh, article that gave me those percentages? And said it couldn’t be the reason anyone would be unhappy because wages kept pace with inflation so no one was worse off?
You can read the article here: Explaining Americans’ Pessimism About a Strong Economy by Jeffrey Frankel - Project Syndicate I didn’t link it because it was a weird situation where it felt like the website was directing me to an archive link of its own article. Usually archive links get tossed around as a way to circumvent paywalls.
I skipped the thread for a couple of days and it was totally worth it.
Because, “uh”, you have been saying over and over in this thread that percentages don’t count for anything, and what really matters is how well off the average American is, and feels.
But with the data even showing that people are saying their individual financial situation is great, suddenly now it’s the other way round, and a percentage is what matters.
The reality is pretty clear, and excellently summarized by the Guardian article. People can feel good about their own situation, and good about the economy in their district and state, and yet rely on their news source of choice for an idea of how America in general is doing. And their pessimism about the general economy is because many of those sources are simply lying. That’s why half the country believes unemployment is at a record high.
I’m not sure what sort of weird trap you’ve convinced yourself you caught me in. I was saying that the article was taking the wrong lesson from its stats. Just like people are taking the wrong lesson from the “But 65%!!!” stat. That’s not me relying on stats; that’s me saying “Your stats don’t mean what you hope they mean”.
I can do this without numbers: Bob feels like he works hard and he gets rewarded with a raise. Bob’s raise doesn’t actually allow him to buy any more stuff than he could before the raise. People are mystified at why Bob could be doing okay paying his bills and yet still think he got shafted. Must be FOX News brainwashing; there’s no other possible reason.
Yes, but why does Bob think unemployment is at a record high when it’s actually near all-time lows?
Good question. But if you’re trying to change Bob’s mind, I bet he cares more about his not-a-raise than the unemployment rate anyway.
I’d bet that Bob is that way about everything that doesn’t affect him directly.
What a jerk, huh? But we’d still like for him to vote for Biden this cycle.
I’m not talking about changing Bob’s mind. (Though you’re probably right about what he cares more about.) I’m asking why he thinks that in the first place. And the most obvious answer is “misinformation.”
I think there’s a combination of things going on. There is definitely the misinformation effect, which is strongest on right-wing and has some spillover into the other groups. To deny that is to pretend that MAGA-verse doesn’t exist or that Social Media doesn’t have nonsense floating around.
And there is still some general shellshock about grocery prices.
But people are certainly more knowledgeable about their own finances than the broader economy, no matter what information sources they are consuming and no matter what political party they support.
This is a unique situation in Presidential politics. Biden inherits a mess. Has a big hand in fixing it (not just him, but his policies helped in a few key areas). But can’t turn it into a positive for his campaign. And I"m not sure this is something he can fix. It’s eye-popping when half of America thinks we’re at record high unemployment. I would have never guessed such a thing, even with the MAGA-verse effect.
Sure, maybe. But Bob probably isn’t reading the unemployment charts because Bob doesn’t worry too much about that. If you were to inject Bob with the unemployment rates right into his brain, he’s still going to care more about his null-raise than say “Shit, everything is great now and my null-raise doesn’t matter”
I’d also suggest that Bob is probably predisposed to assuming the worst about the economy when he gets a raise and still feels like he’s treading water rather than improving his situation, misinformation or not.