Yep - and yet, they’re nowhere near herd immunity. So just imagine the carnage if we ended the lock downs and just “let Americans go back to work”.
Yes, definitely. Both states were hit very early, before anyone really knew how to treat it. Other states could have learned from our examples and shut down, rather than having continued super-spreader events, but they decided to just get sick and die instead.
That hasn’t stopped us from having another surge and filling our ERs again.
And what are the results of your imaginations?
You didn’t ask me, but I imagine several million additional COVID deaths. It’s already the number one cause of death (I think?) last year in the US, and that’s with a hard lockdown in large parts of the country. Here in NJ, no bars and restaurants are at 25% capacity or something, and we’ll still spiking again. Many employers that aren’t requiring people to go into the office would change their mind if the government said the lock down is over.
I don’t remember if it was the number one cause of death last year, but it was the number one cause of death in December when I looked, and that’s even when counting all ‘cancer’ deaths as ‘one cause’.
It was still only ~ 20% when I looked – a lot of people die every day, and COVID hasn’t stopped that – but if it gets up to 50% we’ll have a politically important chunk of people who had a grandparent die of COVID, (say 1/2 a percent) and they’re never going to forget that.
You’re probably right about December rather than all year. I probably remembered the stat wrong.
IIRC there was a bunch of excess “pneumonia” deaths even before December 2019. Which circumstantial evidence suggests were actually as-yet unrecognized cases of COVID-19.
No, I didn’t see that, and I think it’s scuttlebut. The curves for the USA I’ve seen actually show a year-on-year comparative low for December 2019. I’ve been pulled up for saying that, but when I looked at the citations, showing highs for October 2019, it still looked like lower-than-common December 2019 numbers.
Thank you. Glad for the straight scoop. I don’t want to be spreading misinformation.