Why did Stalin believe Hitler?

In August 1939, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union signed a pact whereby they agreed to be friendly and (secretly) to divide Poland between them. In June 1941, Hitler, having consolidated his hold on his half of Poland, invaded the Soviet zone and the Soviet Union itself – an eventuality which Stalin seems not to have expected and for which he was completely unprepared. Hitler went on to occupy all Russia west of Moscow, to be beaten back only when Stalin emerged from Siberia with a fresh army. Hitler was defeated, but at the highest cost imaginable.

Stalin’s maniacal suspicion is legend, and Hitler by that time already had an international reputation as a liar. How could a man like Stalin possibly have believed that a man like Hitler would keep his word?

Possibly Stalin was anticipating attacking Germany eventually and thought the agreement would buy him some time.

Perhaps; but it’s still a case of Hitler getting the best of him. Apparently he thought he would have a lot more time than Hitler allowed him.

A lot of people believed that. I guess the leadership still had the mentality of the grinding-slow slog of World War I and couldn’t handle the lightning pace offered by new technologies.

I don’t know that you can say the Soviets were caught completely by surprise by the invasion. They had large numbers of personnel in the west, but Stalin was also careful not to do anything provacative to provoke Germany. Their military also had two key problems: one was that they had shortages in key military supplies, particularly ammo and modern aircraft, and the other was that the officer corps had nowhere near the experience of their German counterparts because of the purges. Combine that with poor tactics early on, and the initial invasion became a rout.

If the Soviets had been better supplied and more competently led in 1940 they may have been able to stall the German advance sooner and maybe they wouldn’t have been perceived as being taken by surprise.

Stalin was caught thoroughly with his pants down. In fact, when people came to inform him of all the bad news he was a little surprised nobody came to arrest him. (Cite in my head from a history book I read 5 years ago. Perhaps someone else can back that up.)
Odesio

I seem to recall that he DID imprison or execute the guy who originally warned him.

Stalin believed because he wanted to believe. The non-aggression pact was such a sweet deal, and so obviously beneficial for both countries, that Stalin deluded himself into thinking it was legitimate.

Hitler, after all, had fought in World War I. Surely he wouldn’t be so foolish as to repeat the mistake of a two-front war (or even a one-and-a-half front war, with France out but Britain still in). The non-aggression pact, and the victory in France, left Germany with everything the Central Powers had wanted in WWI. The German areas of the former Austria-Hungary were annexed to Germany, and the Balkans were left as German satellites. The Polish Corridor and Alsace-Lorraine were restored to the Reich, and Central Poland and the Low Countries were occupied. Surely Hitler would be sated, at least for a few years?

I’d have to dig through a lot of books in storage, but I’m pretty sure that it’s Codeword:Barbarossa that I’m thinking of that presented a fairly compelling argument that Stalin believed that Hitler was going to present an ultimatum for concessions rather than invading, and chose to interpret all the intelligence indications of an invasion in this light because of his preconceived notions. Anything coming from the west, and especially England he took in his paranoia as an attempt to draw him into a fight against Germany in England’s own interest. Whether that was the reason or not, Stalin made a point of trying to avoid provoking Hitler; and while he had intelligence available to him pointing to an invasion, he didn’t believe that it was actually going to happen in the summer of '41.

I don’t mean to jump on you, but I can’t let this pass unchallenged. It’s passed into pop cultural history that the divisions released from Siberia were instrumental in saving the USSR and it’s really not the case, or at least only a small part of the case. German intelligence horribly underestimated the ability of the USSR’s mobilization to raise huge numbers of new divisions. They bit off far more than they could chew thinking that they could defeat the Soviet Union in a single summer/fall campaign and paid the price in the winter of '41 with horribly overextended supply lines and essentially no winter gear having been delivered to the troops. It’d likely have been better for the Germans to prepare winter lines in the end of fall '41 rather than try to push onto Moscow.

In any event, the USSR was caught totally flat-footed by the invasion. The Luftwaffe caught the Red Air Force sitting on the runways on the morning of June 22, and the Red Army was totally unprepared and suffered extreme shock in the military sense of the word on the day of the invasion and for a long time afterwards, i.e. the messages sent from the front lines and the orders sent back to them had no relation to the actually reality on the ground.

Right. It is ingrained in us that Hitler was a megalomaniac to an ultimately suicidal degree and that influences our hindsight enormously.

It’s perhaps hard to see it from Stalin’s perspective, given that he didn’t know what we know so well now.

Stalin was just coming off his giant party purge of the mid-1930’s (in which he had murdered most of the Red Army’s senior officers). Stalin needed 10-15 years of peace, in which to gear up for the war he expected to fight with Hitler. This is whi Stalin was supplying Germany with raw materials, oil, and foodstuffs. In exchange, Stalin got German technology and help with aircraft design.
Stalin intended to strike when he was ready, and he thought the Germans would honor the nn-agression treaty.
The odd thing-Stalin had excellent intelligence in side Germany, and also the services of Richard Sorge (in Japan). A these sources reported that Hitler would attack the Soviet Union, no later than June 1941-Stalin didn’t believe it.

The Richard Sorge case is fascinating, and a central example in the book The Second Oldest Profession by Phillip Knightley. In it, he posits the insight that no matter how excellent intelligence gathering may be, if it is offered to a leader who has already made up his mind, it is worse than useless.

Odd. That rings a knell…

Deep down Stalin believed Nicholas II was responsible for Germany’s assault in WWI when threatening it by placing so many soldiers on the Eastern Front.

Personally, I think this had a great deal to do with Stalin’s disbelief in a possible invasion. He knew what the military resources of the USSR were and how difficult a German invasion would be. It never entered his mind that maybe the Germans had such piss-poor intelligence that they *didn’t *know all this.

Winston Churchill wrote that the Russians had been snubbed by France and Britain repeatedly in the 30’s when the USSR would approach them with suggestions of political alliance, particularly during the Munich crisis.

Even by the middle of '39, when Hitler was making noises against Poland, Britain and France made only token gestures towards/with the USSR, with nothing more concrete than “we agree Herr Hitler is a bad man”, and practically nothing of any substance in terms of military coordination or sharing of intel. Poland absolutely refused to consider allowing the Soviet armies in her territory.

There was no reason for Stalin to have any confidence in the leadership of France or Britain at that time.

I’m guessing that Stalin thought that Hitler would have been lulled into thinking he had duped the USSR, and entangled in a war with France and Britain long enough for the USSR to restructure and reinforce it’s forces in the west. (No one suspected France would last only 10 months. Heh. )

The non-aggression pact not only gave the USSR eastern Poland (“western Ukraine”), but also gave Stalin a free hand to conquer the Baltic republics, thus essentially restoring Russia’s pre-WW1 imperial boundaries. And it guaranteed that Germany would get into a war with France and Britain; all in all, it looked like a sweet deal at the time. But no one counted on France folding as fast and as completely as it did. Stalin must have felt like someone who discarded a card and gave their opponent a straight flush.

It’s also possible that Stalin – like practically everyone else at the time, including most Germans – was simply incapable of getting his mind around what kind of man Hitler was and what he intended: The utter destruction, not only of Soviet Communism, but of Russia and Poland as nations, so that a greater Germany could be built on their bones. From Modern Times: The World from the Twenties to the Nineties, by Paul Johnson, Chapter 10, “The End of Old Europe”:

Same book, Chapter 11, “The Watershed Year”:

I’m finding this eerily remincient to recent events in our own time.

Churchill remarks on how determined the British electorate was on having peace. (I assume WW1 left a deep scar on the English, even if not quite as deep as it did on the French.)

The governments under Ramsay MacDonald, Stanley Baldwin, and Neville Chamberlain worked hard to ensure that peace. Perhaps they assumed that Hitler, a Western Front trench-warfare Alumni, was telling the truth when he said he wanted to avoid a general war.

Hitler was formed under a rather rough and tumble political system, though, where “might makes right”. (Germany 1919-1922 reads as rather unstable to me.)

If Churchill describes it accurately, it was interesting in how the intellectual Neville Chamberlain was personally offended by the “stab in the back” (the partition of Czechoslovakia in March of '39), after all his hard work in reaching the Munich agreement a few months earlier.

Chamberlain never trusted the USSR enough to consider a real Alliance with them, however. I wonder why Hitler seemed like a statesman, but Stalin a thug, in Chamberlains eyes, considering all the necks the Nazi’s stepped on, on their way to power.

Perhaps because Chamberlain was a Conservative and Stalin was a Communist. As George Orwell wrote in 1941 in The Lion and the Unicorn: Socialism and the English Genius:

Of course, Churchill was also a Conservative, who once declared, “Against the Bolsheviks all methods are good,” but one of greater vision than Chamberlain. When Hitler broke the Nonagression Pact, he remarked that if Hitler were to invade Hell he would offer an alliance to the Devil.