Why Did the GBP Drop After UK Decided to Leave EU?

But people and psychology are a big part of reality. Although it’s fine for you to favor investment grade bonds if that’s what suits your investment needs and risk tolerance, and I would never tell anyone they ‘should’ invest in stocks without knowing their situation, but your theme has a common basic flaw. An efficient market doesn’t mean that prices don’t fluctuate for what ultimately turns out to be no good reason, it just means it’s very hard to guess at the time whether it was a good reason or not. IOW stocks move all over the place compared to what fantasy world where they wouldn’t?

And companies which make pretzels in WI may in fact be affected by the Brexit, in their real business, by any number of conduits like:
-it presages a general unraveling of the EU; that would affect more pretzel consumers who work in areas of the economy affected by business with the EU, which is bigger than business with the UK alone. The Brexit vote, apparently negative for the UK economy but carried along by populist bitterness, might even give a sign about the likelihood of the US electing a buffoonish populist to the White House and thereby hurting its own economy.
-the instability in markets themselves has knock on effects on an already fragile world and US ‘recovery’ barely worthy of the name as it is.

And so on. A lot of those explanations involve ‘people and psychology’, but markets are the interaction of people. What wouldn’t make sense would be prices not changing at all just because the possible knock on effects haven’t actually happened. It’s rational that the greater likelihood of them happening is factored into prices.

If people of your general attitude could tell me fairly consistently when or to what degree the up or down gyration of the market was justified or not, it would be a more useful type of observation. And the stuff about individual stocks, also dubious actually, isn’t really relevant. An individual stock didn’t drop on Friday, whole overseas stock markets dropped 6-8% in one day in US$ terms, though the US stock market only dropped around 3.5% and was down much less than that for the week.

Here is a chart of USD per 1 GPB over the last week. Definitely down on the vote. Click the “1W” button if the weekly graph is not what comes up.

In my book, this just needs to happen just ONCE! (Then forever after I will consider it gambling, not investing.)

I was thinking about this and that it would be better (these days) to invest in a privately owned company. Then the value of that company would be based entirely on the financials relating to THAT company, not on if someone spits in India.

Taking a position on future exchange rate movements? Speculation, not investment. I don’t think anybody pretends otherwise.

Well, no, because, whatever the product of that company is, they are selling that product into a market that is affected by people spitting in India.

How is, “I think country X is making a bad decision that will hurt them, therefore I expect that their currency will fall and will take a position accordingly” different from “I think company Y is making a good decision that will help them and take a position accordingly”?

“Speculation” is just a word for “investment we don’t like”.

Or into a market populated by employees of companies selling products that are affected by people spitting in India. Or a market populated by employees of companies that sell products to employees of companies that sell products that are affected by people spitting in India.

Economies are connected to each other, like it or not. The stock markets and currency markets reflect this, but don’t cause it.