I was thinking about this as I watched the beginning of the Packers-Broncos game (and if the Packers wind up losing, then my question winds up being irrelevant).
Anyway: If the Packers win, they finish the season at 10-6. Seattle won yesterday so they are 10-6. In the olden days (two years ago) Green Bay would win the last wildcard spot based on the fact that they defeated Seattle in their head-to-head matchup this year.
Under the new rules, however, the strength of victory calculations come into play and the Seahawks would win the last wildcard spot.
I know the new rules went into effect when the divisions changed, but why would the NFL get rid of what seems like the most obvious tiebreaker if two teams finsih with the same record?
(All this ignores the fact that if the Vikings lose to Arizona and the Packers win, then the Packers would win the NFC North. But then, you know, it’s Arizona).
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs 1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss
I think the situation was complicated by Dallas losing to New Orleans and finishing with a 10-6 record. If Dallas had won, Green Bay would have been the wild card instead of Seattle because of their win over the Seahawks. With the three teams tied at 10-6, the first tiebreaker is the conference record because Seattle didn’t play Dallas. In that tiebreaker, Dallas and Seattle both are 8-4 and Green Bay is 7-5. Green Bay is out.
I think the issue is that you have three teams at 10-6 for the two wild card spots – Seattle, Dallas, and Green Bay/Minnesota (one of which will win the division). Since Dallas didn’t play Seattle or Green Bay, the head-to-head criteria won’t work. At least, I think that’s what’s happening.
Ahhh, that makes sense I guess. I wasn’t sure how the Dallas-New Orleans game figured in there during all the pregame stuff. I didn’t realize that the head-to-head was bypassed if all teams still fighting for a spot didn’t figure into the head-to-head equation. It just seems a bit odd that my Packers are out of the playoffs while a team that they beat are in.
Oh well, at least now I have no dog in the fight next week so I can watch the playoffs without any anxiety.
It figures. The only time in my life I ever rooted for the Cowboys and they still managed to muck things up.
