One other factor is how many sorties are being flown. S$#@ hits the fan and a plane needs to get into the action multiple times a day. One pilot/one plane is okay peacetime but that one guy is smoked after a long engagement. Our one pilot who ejected (and is still okay to fly) can relieve and split sorties with another pilot on the same plane. Or at least until the plane is up against the wall for maintenance.
Great pic of the airfield. If you zoom in at either the northwest or southeast ends of the longer runway you can just make out the barriers casting shadows just beyond the runway itself into the “overrun” areas. The overruns are a light asphalt color with yellow chevrons painted on them. The runway proper begins where the asphalt gives way to white concrete painted with white “piano key” stripes.
I believe that when Google took their pix the one at the northwest end is raised, whereas the one at southeast is laid out horizontally on the ground. Typically the ends of the top edge of the barrier are held up by relatively flimsy support stilts that tilt either upright to hold the barrier at the ready, or tilt flat to the ground to lay it down. The barrier is always attached to the decelerating / anchoring system and when an airplane is snared in the barrier the top corners are pulled off the support stilts. The decel system then pays out length and absorbs energy at a high but tolerable rate until everything quits moving.
The smaller secondary runway running NE-SW seems to have a different barrier type; perhaps just a cable that can be snagged with a hook. In any case the SW end installation is not very obvious whereas the NE end is pretty visible.
Although this Arresting gear - Wikipedia is mostly about naval practice there’s a bit about land-based barriers too. Plus a sorta-vid of a shipboard net barrier engagement.
If I was in command of that base operating kinda raggedy jets I’d sure want a net barrier at the departure end during all flight operations.
All the fighter support facilities are at the north end of the base and I bet the takeoff we saw was going from NW to SE on the long runway (14).
All correct.
The seat, canopy, & pilot weigh very, very ballpark 600-1000 lbs. The airplane weighs some 15-20K lbs. So 3-5ish percent.
Loss of weight forward would tend to make the airplane tail-heavy and pitch up. CG will move aft which, all else equal, will reduce stability and inhibit stall recovery. But absent a pilot nobody is there to do that recovery.
The bigger issue IMO is that once the pilot is gone the controls will all move to neutral. Depending on how the pitch trim was set at that instant versus how the speed changes later will IMO be the big determiner in what happens next.
I’d bet that in a zoom to eject near the ground the pilot is not going to be trimming, or at least not enough. So odds are the airplane will tend to nose over at least some immediately after he leaves. To the degree the canopy and seat ejection give any downward recoil shove to the nose area that will amplify the effect.
If the airplane accelerates enough in the next few seconds it might start back upwards again in a phugoid. However, that’s not going to have much time to fully develop before the airplane rolls off on a wing and descends into the ground.
According to Wiki, that’s what happened with the MiG that flew itself from Poland to Belgium.